Are we already in a recession?

[Grenz]

Peter Schiff is saying we are going into a big one.

Peter Schiff's been saying we're in for the big one on literally a monthly basis for at least 3 years now: "economy will collapse next week, prepare yourself accordingly". Except it never does...

EDIT: @Videer beat me to it. Schiff's an alarmist hack.

 

[SBJJ]

Then he should have been right in a way people could talk about. We're trying to have informed, rational discourse here.

No he wasn't and neither were you by bringing up Walmart. Especially considering he was right. But u still insulted him personally.

You were the one that was uninformed and irrational

 

[Gandhi]

Peter Schiff is saying we are going into a big one.

Well if broken clock Pete says it's so, we should be worried....

 

[SBJJ]

He's just trying to have an informed, rational discourse.


What's the proper way to ask for sources that show that you are accurate in your ability to make sweeping statements about the economy because of the construction you see on your drives to and from wal Mart?

Then he should have been right in a way people could talk about. We're trying to have informed, rational discourse here.

Just LOL

100% a hypocrite

 

[JosephDredd]

No he wasn't and neither were you by bringing up Walmart. Especially considering he was right. But u still insulted him personally.

You were the one that was uninformed and irrational

Sounds like a problem that could have been avoided with sources

 

[44nutman]

Gotta time my rentals sale just right

I am an appraiser, and not sure of your market but if you are in Central Florida, sell now.
It is a double whammy here. Influx of Puerto Ricans due to they are located on an island with no power, so the rental market has gone nuts(starting to level off now, because everyone is priced out. The second thing is there are certain areas that are getting back over 200k for a house. They are located in an area, I would not live in unless I was a Terminator. Hell I carry whenever I appraiser over there and there are a couple areas, I just decline the work.
Well those areas, like back in 2006-7 are getting at the 200k range. Central Florida has a big hospitality labor force and median income is not great. When it is getting to expensive to buy a house for the middle class in a halfway decent neighborhood then prices are too damn high.
I was flipping homes in 2010 to 2013 with a couple partners but it is too hard to make money on flips now. You can do it, but you have to cut corners. i.e refinishing cabinets, using faux granite counter tops, cheaper quality floors, and if the mechanicals barely work, don't replace them. Basically put a coat of wax on it and flip it. That is not the kind of flips I do, because if your margin is tight, you are bound to run into something you have to replace you did not count on.
I am seeing the supply of homes increase back to a stable market, marketing times are increasing, and limited sales.

 

[JosephDredd]

Just LOL

100% a hypocrite

I usually provide sources and always do when asked (or i admit I'm wrong if I can't). I most definitely do not just say, "that's what I've noticed."


It's the first step in educated, rational discussions.

 

[Gandhi]

Stock-market performance is not a good indicator for the economy (and actually stocks haven't been doing well--the S&P 500 is up just 1.4% YTD, and it's down 4.9% from the late-January high). But real metrics that people use to evaluate the strength of the economy show it doing well.

One of the few metrics that has had any success predicting recessions is the 10-year treasury constant maturity minus the 2-year. When it hits zero or goes negative, that's a sign that a recession could be coming soon (though that could mean a couple of years). Here it is:

We're getting to the point where we maybe should be a little worried, but not where it's a real red flag.

Interesting so if there is no reward for investing in long term debt and actually a penalty then the bets are that future short term rates will drop dramatically in response an upcoming recession? Why the 10mand 2?

 

[Deleted member 391673]

I'm sure you have the stats and metrics to back this all this up. Or did you just leave Wal-Mart?

npr ran a story yesterday about increasing credit card debt on a national level.

 

[SBJJ]

I usually provide sources and always do when asked (or i admit I'm wrong if I can't). I most definitely do not just say, "that's what I've noticed."


It's the first step in educated, rational discussions.

Personal insults are not educated and rational.

And saying u notice something and know something are 2 different things

He did not insult u. U insulted him. And he was actually correct. Which makes u look even worse.

By the way. What he said is something everyone should know. The data is out there. The fact some posters ask for sources if u say the earth is not flat is kinda lame

 

[JosephDredd]

Personal insults are not educated and rational.

And saying u notice something and know something are 2 different things

He did not insult u. U insulted him. And he was actually correct. Which makes u look even worse.

By the way. What he said is something everyone should know. The data is out there. The fact some posters ask for sources if u say the earth is not flat is kinda lame

And yet, sourcing claims is the basis of intelligent, educated discourse.

Here's a few radical ideas:

1. Don't enter discussions if you're not prepared to prove that you're not talking shit.

2. Don't feel upset when people call you names because you've a history of talking shit.

As far as I can tell by his typical posting, if he's correct it's completely by accident.

You haven't been that educated or rational yourself, lately. Don't start slipping. Have those sources ready.

 

[SBJJ]

And yet, sourcing claims is the basis of intelligent, educated discourse.

Here's a few radical ideas:

1. Don't enter discussions if you're not prepared to prove that you're not talking shit.

2. Don't feel upset when people call you names because you've a history of talking shit.

As far as I can tell by his typical posting, if he's correct it's completely by accident.

You haven't been that educated or rational yourself, lately. Don't start slipping. Have those sources ready.

I give sources and I answer questions. You do not

You also tend to resort to insults when u are losing an argument. And judging by the frequency of your insults it is happening quite often

The fact u didn't know he's correct is very telling

Also. Once again he NEVER said he knew anything.

 

[JosephDredd]

I give sources and I answer questions. You do not

I provide sources very well. Don't be a liar.

You also tend to resort to insults when u are losing an argument. And judging by the frequency of your insults it is happening quite often

That's not true. I resort to insults when I'm talking to morons. I can genuinely say that I am appreciative when someone provides information that makes me think, reconsider and learn more.

The fact u didn't know he's correct is very telling

There's a good chance that he didn't know he was correct. He posts a lot of bullshit.

Also. Once again he NEVER said he knew anything.

Yes, he did. He certainly didn't say, "this is just my personal experience" or "this is just speculation". He stated his opinion quite authoritatively.

 

[Johnny Mac]

 

[HIMBOB]

Haven't seen anyone else saying that, got another source that's not as politically focused?

 

[Supereem]

Things are looking bubbleish. Ofcourse with property, but also lookat the price of second hand Rolex’s rise over the last few years. The fact people are spending that much on an old stainless steel watch indicates bubble territory.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I almost hope so because the fucking housing market has become a bubble again. No one can afford to buy in Cali.

Yep, me too. Waiting to buy a house until I see a correction.

 

[Jake the Muss]

Peter Schiff's been saying we're in for the big one on literally a monthly basis for at least 3 years now: "economy will collapse next week, prepare yourself accordingly". Except it never does...

EDIT: @Videer beat me to it. Schiff's an alarmist hack.

The thing with Peter Schiff is that when he is right, he is damn accurate and anyone that follows his advice usually capitalizes on riding out a big momentum shift.

The problem is, surviving until then.

 

[WTF2008]

It's bubbly because we have a President that actually puts America first instead of his own pocket book.
If Trump doesn't make 2020, sell fast.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

No, I do not believe that we are

This, GDP is growing, corporate profits are higher than last year, which were higher than the year before that, unemployment is low, inflation is in check, etc.

Also, corporations' balance sheet are much healthier than they were 15 years ago.

I was a permabear until like 2014, but then I realised that the ecconomy is doing allright by most metrics.

And I doubt that the current bubbles (fintech/startups/social media/cryptocurrencies/all that shit) have the potential to make the whole banking system / economy tank like the Real Estate market did 10 years ago.