Yan vs. O' Malley - A Balanced Take

[handle]

although presenting his argument in a polished way, TS seemed very invested in sean.

as for me, i expect an asskicking from yan. but stranger things have happened.

 

[listrahtes]

Dislike for O'Malley colors people's perception a little too much, so I'm going to try to just cover the obvious points.

O'Malley's clear advantages in these fight are his range, height, and striking accuracy. He is a very coordinated striker who works best at tip range, who throws great combinations from different angles at great speed, can throw from his back foot, and who uses a lot of feints and mixups extremely well. He tends to fare better against less mobile targets who are at a clear speed and range disadvantage, like Moutinho, where he can style off and chain combinations or use his speed advantage to land counters. In his last fight, Pedro adopted a mobile strategy, to move in and out of range, avoiding the boxing exchanges, and poking with leg kicks that while mostly checked also added up. O'Malley had trouble finding his range, even if he did manage to land a few good punches, including one that shut Pedro's left eye. Upon rewatching I thought he won that round. He is exceptionally good at chaining strikes and finding the counter punches, and avoiding head strikes.

Yan is even faster, has better movement, and a much more polished striking game, not to mention speed, than Pedro. He works at his best moving in and out with fast short combinations. Nothing particularly fancy, just tenacious, fast, and precise. He has a big reach disadvantage, but he moves in and out very well, and tends to find his range and pick it up as the fight moves forward. He will probably move laterally a lot and frustrate O'Malley, who will have to try to find his range against a much more mobile target than ever before. While O'Malley generally has a speed advantage, against Yan this might not be the case. Propensity for injury might be a factor, but it's impossible to factor in such things. Neither fighter seems to opt for wrestling offensive, though both have good takedown and submission defense.

The thing with O'Malley is that he is in love with the idea of becoming a KO artist like Conor or Anderson, while he should grow into a more dynamic MMA fighter like DJ or GSP, who could change gears mid fight if something was not working. His BJJ is actually surprisingly good, but he rarely has alternative gameplans and always seems to prefer to strike. He needs to get his ego in check, and realize styling off with strikes won't always be available as he fights the higher level competition moving forward, if he wants to be consistent.

I think this is a difficult fight to call; far more than people are making it out to be, though obviously it is an enormous step up in competition for Sean. I'm going to go out on a limb and say O'Malley shocks the world.

Nothing about your take is "balanced" its just not agressive. You completely ignore O`Malleys abysmal competition compared to Yan while mentioning aspects Sean is superior like striking accuracy. Yes against a paraplegic I also look like Sugar Ray. If you use the his higher level opponents (still way apart from Yann) he gets beaten and outperformed. Even his last opponent was brought in to loose and give Sean all possible advantages. Still who won the fight until the stop?

If you analyze the fighters there is only one conclusion that Yann will dominate. If you are a Sean fan (which is obvious) sure go for the underdog but that has nothing to do with analyzing anything. O`malleys biggest weakness is his missing brain. He doesnt add new weapons and doesnt work on his weaknesses. He is longer in the UFC than Yann and basically the same fighter he was when entering the UFC.

 

[Youtried]

Anything can happen in a fight and I can see Sean getting a sudden KO victory out of nowhere. That being said I just don't see any way that Sean plausibly wins this fight based on what we've seen from both fighters. Comparing their skills Is one thing, but without including the level of opponent is disingenuous at best. The only person Sean fought that was close to the level of competition to Yan's was Chito Vera.

I believe Sean can win. I strongly believe that Yan will win. If your argument has to include luck for someone to win it's simply not a good argument.

 

[krelianx]

Nothing about your take is "balanced" its just not agressive. You completely ignore O`Malleys abysmal competition compared to Yan while mentioning aspects Sean is superior like striking accuracy. Yes against a paraplegic I also look like Sugar Ray. If you use the his higher level opponents (still way apart from Yann) he gets beaten and outperformed. Even his last opponent was brought in to loose and give Sean all possible advantages. Still who won the fight until the stop?

If you analyze the fighters there is only one conclusion that Yann will dominate. If you are a Sean fan (which is obvious) sure go for the underdog but that has nothing to do with analyzing anything. O`malleys biggest weakness is his missing brain. He doesnt add new weapons and doesnt work on his weaknesses. He is longer in the UFC than Yann and basically the same fighter he was when entering the UFC.

I am not a fan of O'Malley as a person. I don't like him, since I think he is immature, attention whore-ish, and that his desire to become a star and KO artist gets in the way of developing as a more dynamic MMA fighter, which he can, considering his BJJ for instance is very good.

But I also think he is a much better fighter than he has been given credit for by fans, because people don't like him and doubt him, for both visceral reasons, and because he hasn't proven himself with victories against top competition. Nevertheless, I just don't think his performances against Vera or Pedro are indicative of how he will perform against top competition in general, which is why it sounds ludicrous to pick him or blinded. I do think the Vera incident was an anomaly, and I think upon rewatching that while Pedro did make things much harder for Sean than former opponents, he did the most significant damage with the shot that shut his right eye, and that it was ultimately inconclusive

Many fighters think this is a difficult fight to call even if, as I think is reasonable, Yan is the favorite by a significant margin. I do think that Sean is better than people tend to think here, but again, I do not think this is a fight I am confident in picking. I'm essentially split halfway, and I'm taking a moderately bold pick with the upset. I still think I identified their strengths and weaknesses; including, as you I believe overstate, the fact that O'Malley performs better against less mobile targets, and that he ought to diversify his game as opposed to expecting his opponents to always be liable to styling off from combinations at his preferred range. Which is why I think Sean will have to face a more mobile, less easily available target than before. I acknowledged all of these points, but you seem to think the only reasonable pick is domination by Yan. Maybe that will be the outcome, but I think Bobby Knuckles has a closer take to how I see it.

 

[krelianx]

although presenting his argument in a polished way, TS seemed very invested in sean.

as for me, i expect an asskicking from yan. but stranger things have happened.

I think Sean is immature, relies too much on his desire to find the KO, hasn't shown he can adapt successfully with a more mobile target, and that Yan presents a roster of enormous problems for him: speed, sound fundamentals, movement... I do think Sean is, however, superlatively coordinated, talented, long, lanky, unorthodox, great at countering and feinting-switching, and that in a shorter fight it makes things more difficult to predict than most here would think. But I could be wrong, of course, and he might get obliterated. But my prediction is not based on being 'invested' on O'Malley. I think TJ, for instance, who I dislike intensely, would likely beat him.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I am not a fan of O'Malley as a person. I don't like him, since I think he is immature, attention whore-ish, and that his desire to become a star and KO artist gets in the way of developing as a more dynamic MMA fighter, which he can, considering his BJJ for instance is very good.

But I also think he is a much better fighter than he has been given credit for by fans, because people don't like him and doubt him, for both visceral reasons, and because he hasn't proven himself with victories against top competition. Nevertheless, I just don't think his performances against Vera or Pedro are indicative of how he will perform against top competition in general, which is why it sounds ludicrous to pick him or blinded. I do think the Vera incident was an anomaly, and I think upon rewatching that while Pedro did make things much harder for Sean than former opponents, he did the most significant damage with the shot that shut his right eye, and that it was ultimately inconclusive

Many fighters think this is a difficult fight to call even if, as I think is reasonable, Yan is the favorite by a significant margin. I do think that Sean is better than people tend to think here, but again, I do not think this is a fight I am confident in picking. I'm essentially split halfway, and I'm taking a moderately bold pick with the upset. I still think I identified their strengths and weaknesses; including, as you I believe overstate, the fact that O'Malley performs better against less mobile targets, and that he ought to diversify his game as opposed to expecting his opponents to always be liable to styling off from combinations at his preferred range. Which is why I think Sean will have to face a more mobile, less easily available target than before. I acknowledged all of these points, but you seem to think the only reasonable pick is domination by Yan. Maybe that will be the outcome, but I think Bobby Knuckles has a closer take to how I see it.

You make a lot of threads about Sean for such an apathetic non fan.

Sean probably doesn't get credit from the fans for being a world class fighter, like Yan, because no one except for you believes they have seen him perform to that level. While in contrast the fans have seen Yan prove countless times he is a world class fighter, a dirty one, but still world class nonetheless.

Also, fighters have no greater insight into specific matchups than the average fan, unless they have specifically gone back and reviewed old fights; many fighters aren't even fans of the sport. If Dominik Cruz were to say the public is sleeping on the abilities of Sean O'Malley, then you would have a point, but instead you are referencing random fighters who fight multiple weight classes above BW.

 

[krelianx]

You make a lot of threads about Sean for such an apathetic non fan.

Sean probably doesn't get credit from the fans for being a world class fighter, like Yan, because no one except for you believes they have seen him perform to that level. While in contrast the fans have seen Yan prove countless times he is a world class fighter, a dirty one, but still world class nonetheless.

Also, fighters have no greater insight into specific matchups than the average fan, unless they have specifically gone back and reviewed old fights; many fighters aren't fans of the sport. If Dominik Cruz were to say the public is sleeping on the abilities of Sean O'Malley, then you would have a point, but instead you are referencing random fighters who fight multiple weight classes above BW.

And I agree that Yan is world-class. Maybe it is difficult for you to pull apart the idea of someone believing that someone is exorbitantly skilled, and being a fan. I think Sean is much better than he's given credit for by most fans, and there are different reasons for this, some good, some not. And I do not think track record necessarily reflects a skillset. I think you are imprecise in your last statement: true, not every or even most fighters are necessarily good at analyzing or predicting fights. But I think Bobby is a consistently learned and sober analyst. I fail to see how the fact he fights weight classes higher than Sean makes a difference, if his knowledge of the sport is superlatively superior than ours. Granted, he still represents a minority position, but even among those who pick Yan many think this is a much more difficult fight to call than most would give. Including, for instance, Khabib, who is a very rigorous observer of the sport, and who thinks Sean has superlative skills that exceed what the consensus in the forums seems to be.

I think what I am seeing is actually a lot of defensive stances against anyone who tries to say this isn't as obvious as some would like to think. This is what I consider stupidity. Perhaps this will be a blowout, but I'm not simply waxing lyrical about O'Malley; I've tried to identify strengths and weaknesses, and I have been quite critical of him, despite my pick. If I had picked Yan at the end, everything else being equal, or just refrained from picking, I seriously doubt people would be so hostile to what I wrote.

I make lots of threads, some about fighters I like, some about fighters I don't like, but I'm generally interested in looking at skills and matchups rather than records or going by emotion.

 

[listrahtes]

I do think Sean is, however, superlatively coordinated, talented

You can say that about someone entering the UFC and then having his first few fights. Someone like Rory McDonald was superb talented. O`Malley is now 5 years in the UFC ! without a relevant progression. Pedro was handpicked by UFC and outperformed him. What you talk about is his flashy fight style staying in firing range...etc but he doesnt do anything with t.

If O`Malley would be so "coordinated...etc" he would have beaten down Pedro from range with ease and stayed on the outside. He was on the loosing track before the NC.

Someone like Yann is "superlative coordinated & talented".

 

[Pilo]

With that said, I agree that as the fight moves forward, and if O'Malley does not find success in the first two rounds, it is likely Yan will pick it up and has a better shot at finding his range and winning.

I don't think this is a five rounder, though, is it?

If it's a 3 rounder, Yan cannot afford to start slow. I'm confident he's smart enough not to make that mistake. But I think Yan would be greatly favoured if that was a 5 round fight indeed.

 

[WhiteMousse]

I think in time O'Malley could be in the top 3 if not the champ. But bumping him up to who is arguably the best fighter in the division is remarkably ambitious to the point of being inadvisable.

But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if maybe it's not. Not that I think O'Malley will win, but only that a loss against Yan would not be a big strike against O'Malley. It's the Rocky effect for lack of a better term. Unless he gets absolutely demolished, which is a possibility.

But it's also possible that he doesn't. Yan usually spends at least the first round analyzing his opponent. He doesn't usually like to wrestle. These are things that definitely go in O'Malley's favor.

I fully expect Yan to win. But it could be a great fight, and if O'Malley upsets or at least surprises people, this place will be going nuts.

 

[PurpleDrank]

Dislike for O'Malley colors people's perception a little too much, so I'm going to try to just cover the obvious points.

O'Malley's clear advantages in these fight are his range, height, and striking accuracy. He is a very coordinated striker who works best at tip range, who throws great combinations from different angles at great speed, can throw from his back foot, and who uses a lot of feints and mixups extremely well. He tends to fare better against less mobile targets who are at a clear speed and range disadvantage, like Moutinho, where he can style off and chain combinations or use his speed advantage to land counters. In his last fight, Pedro adopted a mobile strategy, to move in and out of range, avoiding the boxing exchanges, and poking with leg kicks that while mostly checked also added up. O'Malley had trouble finding his range, even if he did manage to land a few good punches, including one that shut Pedro's left eye. Upon rewatching I thought he won that round. He is exceptionally good at chaining strikes and finding the counter punches, and avoiding head strikes.

Yan is even faster, has better movement, and a much more polished striking game, not to mention speed, than Pedro. He works at his best moving in and out with fast short combinations. Nothing particularly fancy, just tenacious, fast, and precise. He has a big reach disadvantage, but he moves in and out very well, and tends to find his range and pick it up as the fight moves forward. He will probably move laterally a lot and frustrate O'Malley, who will have to try to find his range against a much more mobile target than ever before. While O'Malley generally has a speed advantage, against Yan this might not be the case. Propensity for injury might be a factor, but it's impossible to factor in such things. Neither fighter seems to opt for wrestling offensive, though both have good takedown and submission defense.

The thing with O'Malley is that he is in love with the idea of becoming a KO artist like Conor or Anderson, while he should grow into a more dynamic MMA fighter like DJ or GSP, who could change gears mid fight if something was not working. His BJJ is actually surprisingly good, but he rarely has alternative gameplans and always seems to prefer to strike. He needs to get his ego in check, and realize styling off with strikes won't always be available as he fights the higher level competition moving forward, if he wants to be consistent.

I think this is a difficult fight to call; far more than people are making it out to be, though obviously it is an enormous step up in competition for Sean. I'm going to go out on a limb and say O'Malley shocks the world.

Overall great post. Seans talented but gets away making alot of mistakes. People see that hes comfortable on the backfoot, but while hes coordinated hes often not in a good position while punching but also after exchanges. Combined with his propensity to punch with his feet way too far apart, and generally standing too tall, I dont see how Yan doesnt win most of the exchanges. Hes going to really have to make Yan respect his feints, but after watching the Muhnoz fight idk how easy that will be. Ill be rooting for Sean though.

 

[ThePimblettEra]

Peter falls in 1

 

[Deleted member 498977]

This is a moronic take, but thanks.

Wanna bet?

 

[Deleted member 498977]

Peter falls in 1

Peter Pan?

 

[wisdom blows]

Omally can only beat up cans. When he fights someone who understands distance and footwork he has trouble landing his kill shots. Yan going to make an example out of him.

i don’t see a ton of evidence for this. His fight with Chito was a weird anomaly, and the Pedro fight, he was turning it up before the poke. Also, Pedro implemented an incredibly timid gameplan; he didn’t land one head shot or even punch. He landed like 25% of his leg kicks. Yan is vicious and aggressive and this will give Sean a chance to lead really meaningful strikes. I still think Yan is the favorite here, but Sean has a real chance based on style match up.

 

[krelianx]

i don’t see a ton of evidence for this. His fight with Chito was a weird anomaly, and the Pedro fight, he was turning it up before the poke. Also, Pedro implemented an incredibly timid gameplan; he didn’t land one head shot or even punch. He landed like 25% of his leg kicks. Yan is vicious and aggressive and this will give Sean a chance to lead really meaningful strikes. I still think Yan is the favorite here, but Sean has a real chance based on style match up.

This is the only reasonable takeaway from those fights. Sean might end up underperforming against top competition but to conclude that from those two fights is just silly.

 

[BJJ Lover]

i don’t see a ton of evidence for this. His fight with Chito was a weird anomaly, and the Pedro fight, he was turning it up before the poke. Also, Pedro implemented an incredibly timid gameplan; he didn’t land one head shot or even punch. He landed like 25% of his leg kicks. Yan is vicious and aggressive and this will give Sean a chance to lead really meaningful strikes. I still think Yan is the favorite here, but Sean has a real chance based on style match up.

that's what I've been saying but you articulated it in a more concise way.

 

[chimpoehurricane]

Yan should win this one, Sean hasn't beaten anyone good

Ultimate can crusher. Fought Vera, stubbed his toe, went unconscious defending gnp with his chin, and when he came back to consciousness, he put on a Stirling like Oscar performance. Yan by tough of death.

 

[BJJ Lover]

Ultimate can crusher. Fought Vera, stubbed his toe, went unconscious defending gnp with his chin, and when he came back to consciousness, he put on a Stirling like Oscar performance. Yan by tough of death.

It was really cringe when Vera (T)KO'd him and Sean grabbed his foot afterwards just for show to make sure everyone understood he had a damaged leg.

He also didn't show much heart. It's like when he fell on his back he wanted the referee to stop it without looking like he's quitting.

When Demetrious Johnson hurt Henry Cejudo's leg with the same type of kick to the same nerve ending the King of Cringe came back for a split decision win.

Against Pedro Munhoz at the end of round 1 there were also interesting things to be seen in Sean's facial expressions when he went back to his corner. I think Pedro's leg kicks were affecting him more than people recognize and Sean had concern and doubt on his face.

Dude is extremely talented and has so much potential but I get the feeling that he lacks heart and grit.

 

[Azyy]

went unconscious defending gnp with his chin

It was really cringe when Vera (T)KO'd him and Sean grabbed his foot afterwards just for show to make sure everyone understood he had a damaged leg.

Why do weirdos always say O'Malley went unconscious when he clearly didn't? It's literally on camera yet I always read this dumb narrative that he went out cold and pretended that he didn't.