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Will Trump be a one term president?
- Thread starter Ishaq
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I would say no...but I would have bet everything I own 3 months before the election that Donald Trump wouldn't have become president.
Here's an odd take I've been mulling over.
If the economy does great over the next 4 years, Trump may not seek a second term. If he can get out while it looks good, he goes down in the history books as successful, and can use any number of reasons to not run again, age, health, unity, etc.
If the economy does great over the next 4 years, Trump may not seek a second term. If he can get out while it looks good, he goes down in the history books as successful, and can use any number of reasons to not run again, age, health, unity, etc.
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I wouldn't dare, but his stupidity was still blindingly painful. I think I might need a safe space.
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Easily two term. The Dems have no strategy, other than to scream "racism", and pray that Daddy Mueller finds something to impeach him on(which he won't).
They have put forth NOTHING in terms of taking on Donald Trump in 2020. Gonna take more than constant whining to dethrone him.
Also, I wouldn't hang your hat on his approval rating. The 35% or so who support him are likely actual voters, who will vote for him. His base is as passionate as it gets. Now think about that, and realize that just a shade over 50% of Americans actually vote. Unless something drastically changes, he's about where he was with general population, when he won the damn thing against a franchise player.
Two term. Book it.
They have put forth NOTHING in terms of taking on Donald Trump in 2020. Gonna take more than constant whining to dethrone him.
Also, I wouldn't hang your hat on his approval rating. The 35% or so who support him are likely actual voters, who will vote for him. His base is as passionate as it gets. Now think about that, and realize that just a shade over 50% of Americans actually vote. Unless something drastically changes, he's about where he was with general population, when he won the damn thing against a franchise player.
Two term. Book it.
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Too early to tell imo. I mean shit, with everything that has happened with his administration its felt like 4 years instead of just 8 months.
3 years is a fucking eternity and anything can and probably will happen in that time frame. A number of which could propel him to a second term. Or find him impeached.
3 years is a fucking eternity and anything can and probably will happen in that time frame. A number of which could propel him to a second term. Or find him impeached.
D
Devout Pessimist
Guest
The Democrats just need to keep singing their fight song anthem and they will surely win the next election:
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His chances of being re-elected were "very slim" last year but he won by a lot.
If you keep reading and being influenced by liberal media, Trump will be executed for treason and is worse than Hitler.
In reality, the liberal media only caters to the vocal minority. A lot of middle class people do not fall for BS headlines and news articles which are opinion pieces.
While working, I have conversations with a lot of middle class people. They are all pro trump. Mexican, south american, central american, black, white, jewish, asian etc.
Only anti-trump ultra liberals I run into are super wealthy people.
In regards to poor people, I find that it is 50/50. Split between anti-establishment and ultra liberal.
So in other words,
R
ripskater
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Trump faces the same realities as any other incumbent. He needs to be rated well on the things he can control, be fortunate enough to not have anything too bad happen out of his control, and respond well to crisis.
Some of what's under his control: steering the Republican agenda (tax cuts for the rich, deregulation, yadda yadda), following through on his own agenda, representing the US well internationally, etc.
Some of what's not under his control: the economy, the courts, crises, etc.
Considering his really bad approval rating, his inability to steer the party agenda, or to implement his own, and his position as an international laughingstock, he's not helping himself at all for reelection. But even with his incompetence, an incumbent has such a big advantage that he could win even if he doesn't perform well. The economy could remain strong, the court could hear a couple of landmark cases that go the way the base wants them to, we could get into some kind of war that is popular with Republicans, or face some kind of crisis at the right time.
The last (R) who failed was Bush, Sr, and he failed his reelection for two major reasons: read my lips, and pulling out of Iraq without killing Saddam. One was perceived as a broken campaign promise, and the other was perceived as a weak response to crisis. You can go deeper into congress and the economy and other things, but that's what resonates in people's minds, as symbolic of his failure. And we haven't gotten any less symbolic or short-sighted since '92. So I would look to these things:
The Wall
Obamacare
Jobs
Those are three big ones. So far he's 1/3 and the other 2 have been goddamn circuses of bad leadership. If he follows through on 2/3 of those to the satisfaction of the people, such that the independents who lean right and decide our elections approve, then he has good chances. He already has one major point in the bag with his base by appointing an anti-labor, highly religious Justice.
The opposition doesn't matter as much as people expect in an incumbent race. Take John Kerry. He came off as basically a vanilla guy, not exciting or disappointing. He was qualified and intelligent, but pretty much stayed in the center of the lane. He had a lot of unused swerving room as a candidate without changing the outcome. It was really a referendum on Bush by independents. And Bush was judged to be a good enough wartime leader that it wasn't worth taking a chance on another guy, and the economy was still doing alright. He is notable for getting a pass on his major centrist appeal of "humble foreign policy." Well, when 9/11 happens, that's just no longer a factor. The crisis gave him a pass on being judged for that.
And I don't think it changes much if the Democrats put up a populist like Bernie or someone with a similar buzz. Who in their right mind is going to get into a ra-ra bullshit-brand-fest with one of the most effective ra-ra bullshit-branders we've ever seen?
Some of what's under his control: steering the Republican agenda (tax cuts for the rich, deregulation, yadda yadda), following through on his own agenda, representing the US well internationally, etc.
Some of what's not under his control: the economy, the courts, crises, etc.
Considering his really bad approval rating, his inability to steer the party agenda, or to implement his own, and his position as an international laughingstock, he's not helping himself at all for reelection. But even with his incompetence, an incumbent has such a big advantage that he could win even if he doesn't perform well. The economy could remain strong, the court could hear a couple of landmark cases that go the way the base wants them to, we could get into some kind of war that is popular with Republicans, or face some kind of crisis at the right time.
The last (R) who failed was Bush, Sr, and he failed his reelection for two major reasons: read my lips, and pulling out of Iraq without killing Saddam. One was perceived as a broken campaign promise, and the other was perceived as a weak response to crisis. You can go deeper into congress and the economy and other things, but that's what resonates in people's minds, as symbolic of his failure. And we haven't gotten any less symbolic or short-sighted since '92. So I would look to these things:
The Wall
Obamacare
Jobs
Those are three big ones. So far he's 1/3 and the other 2 have been goddamn circuses of bad leadership. If he follows through on 2/3 of those to the satisfaction of the people, such that the independents who lean right and decide our elections approve, then he has good chances. He already has one major point in the bag with his base by appointing an anti-labor, highly religious Justice.
The opposition doesn't matter as much as people expect in an incumbent race. Take John Kerry. He came off as basically a vanilla guy, not exciting or disappointing. He was qualified and intelligent, but pretty much stayed in the center of the lane. He had a lot of unused swerving room as a candidate without changing the outcome. It was really a referendum on Bush by independents. And Bush was judged to be a good enough wartime leader that it wasn't worth taking a chance on another guy, and the economy was still doing alright. He is notable for getting a pass on his major centrist appeal of "humble foreign policy." Well, when 9/11 happens, that's just no longer a factor. The crisis gave him a pass on being judged for that.
And I don't think it changes much if the Democrats put up a populist like Bernie or someone with a similar buzz. Who in their right mind is going to get into a ra-ra bullshit-brand-fest with one of the most effective ra-ra bullshit-branders we've ever seen?
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Whoops, looks like someone trolled without doing their homework. I might add this to my sig LOL.
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Based on his popularity (or lack thereof) and various unforced errors, there's no way he should make it to a second term. But between the corporate Democrats and the far left/regressive left, you never know. There are parallels with the Weimar Republic when the Reds fought it out with the Brown Shirts and the general public ended up siding with the Brown Shirts which eventually led to Nazi Germany. I don't necessarily think things will get that bad here, but history has a way of repeating.
his support numbers are low atm but he still has his war card which can bring his approval numbers up before next election. in my opinion a lot of people stayed home and didnt vote because they were sure hillary was going to win, i think this time around more people will get out and and try to get him out of office. who knows what will happen in the next three years tho
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Democrats don't have anybody to run against him.
They are either old school establishment democrats ppl got tired of
Or radical progressives wanting some type of radical change in society
Neither represents majority of Americans.
The only way trump loses is if a republican populist runs against him n is much more composed then trump
They are either old school establishment democrats ppl got tired of
Or radical progressives wanting some type of radical change in society
Neither represents majority of Americans.
The only way trump loses is if a republican populist runs against him n is much more composed then trump
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Yes I think he will only serve one term.
I think he's doing an excellent job, however he's not in a good position for reelection.
-Age
-Continued opposition/obstruction from within own party
-This country has swung to the extreme left, there is nothing left of us in human history sans a handful of city-sized countries in northernmost Europe. The right is deluding itself by ignoring every metric and thinking Trump won, civilization is saved!
Trump's election was an anomaly: Democrats trying to run a white/washington royalty candidate as the successor to Obama when their party's modern rhetoric is almost entirely about the battle for racial dominance and cultural intimidation.
Look at the apathy numbers among the DNC's most reliable demographics. I don't think they will make this mistake twice. If they can find any 'young' (under 60 in federal politics) and 'ethnic' candidate who just adopts generic left positions, they're a shoe-in. That apathy will disappear and Trump is doomed.
People are dumb, this is rule #1 in politics. The public works in very simple ways.
I think he's doing an excellent job, however he's not in a good position for reelection.
-Age
-Continued opposition/obstruction from within own party
-This country has swung to the extreme left, there is nothing left of us in human history sans a handful of city-sized countries in northernmost Europe. The right is deluding itself by ignoring every metric and thinking Trump won, civilization is saved!
Trump's election was an anomaly: Democrats trying to run a white/washington royalty candidate as the successor to Obama when their party's modern rhetoric is almost entirely about the battle for racial dominance and cultural intimidation.
Look at the apathy numbers among the DNC's most reliable demographics. I don't think they will make this mistake twice. If they can find any 'young' (under 60 in federal politics) and 'ethnic' candidate who just adopts generic left positions, they're a shoe-in. That apathy will disappear and Trump is doomed.
People are dumb, this is rule #1 in politics. The public works in very simple ways.
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