Why Nate Diaz has VERY LITTLE chance of winning @ UFC 196...

[sickc0d3r]

I'm not necessarily picking Nate here, but come on, we've seen time and again what Nate can do when he's not worried about being taken down. This is by no means a gimme fight for Conor. Mad, respect to him for taking it, he's a G.
Nate's very good at using his reach to keep pressure on and back his opponent up, and he usually finds his range in the 2nd round and can really make guys uncomfortable. He's also a southpaw, his clinch game is underrated, and he holds an obvious light years of advantage on the ground. I think the MJ fight showed he's been working hard on defending kicks, and MJ got handled with 1-2's all night having just come off a very impressive stand up demolition of a mega-dynamic striker in Barbosa.
That said, Nate's not very good when he is backing up, he doesn't move off the center line a lot (though he does take angles subtly), he leaves a lot of openings, and he will get hit plenty in this fight. Conor's left hand should be less of a weapon but if he decides to kick and move and frustrate Nate, he can catch him clean and then we'll see if his power translates to higher weights. If it does, oh boy. His uppercut could be the weapon of choice after a few body shots.
I think Conor has the advantage mainly because he'll land cleaner shots, he's more elusive, and it's not like Nate is going to shoot single legs or attempt a lot of ankle picks. Nate's also on 11 days notice. But, if Nate is smart and can stay at his range, throw straight punches and try to force Conor against the cage so he can work the clinch, he's got a fine chance. If Conor decides not to run out to the center ala NBK so he can avoid being clinched up, one hip toss with Nate landing on top could be real trouble for Conor. Nate can also simply win rounds with that strategy.
Pretty even fight overall, imo, but with a lot of possible outcomes, including flash finishes from either guy. I just hope it goes into the later rounds so we can see how Conor responds at this weight.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Nate will pull guard out of a clinch and sub Connor - only way he can win. Connor's ego will have him try and play in Nate's guard and get caught in a triangle.

 

[HI SCOTT NEWMAN]

I agree with you TS. can't see Nate having anything for Conor.

 

[The XL]

Nate Diaz is an extremely live underdog in this fight, I think he's going to win. Conor has made a living using his size and reach extremely well, and he won't have either here. Diaz is the more rangy fighter and they'll both probably be walking around at the same weight. Diaz also has great cardio, and a great chin that has been tested at both 155 and 170. He can also sub McGregor easily if he gets him down or there is some kind of scramble.

Way too many people are counting Diaz out.

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

As a huge fan of both men, I agree with your analysis TS

 

[Overkiller]

I think you are wrong, I think Connors persona won't allow him to fight as he should against a Diaz, I think he will feel the pressure not to be a boring fighter or have a Diaz-Condit like fight and get a lot of hate, he won't be able to add to the hype with a fight like that.

Maybe if McGregor himself says he is going to fight a smart fight and not going for the KO or something like that, but not if he predicts a first-round KO or anything of that kind.

I think Nate wears him down or sub him while I feel it is more unlikely that McGregor KO's Nate.

Nate will be in lesser shape though and that might be a factor.

Most let down that the build up will be short, would have loved to see these two go at each other for a while.

 

[Nelson McGunnar]

Nate was probably on the wacky baccy when Dana called last night.

He hasn't a hope. But the payday will keep him in dope for the rest of his life.

 

[tbulls123]

Nate via stockton slap. Kidding. Conor will win this match up easily. I don't usually root for this guy but i just don't see nate doing much to get the win.

 

[Tsar]

You're an idiot if you think Diaz gasses. All the Diaz brothers do when they're not fighting is cardio train.

they're never out of shape, sure, but there's a difference between being in shape and being in fight shape. i'm not saying he will be gassing, i'm just curious to see what diaz looks like with two weeks to prepare.

 

[AWilder]

I foresee a lot of

and perhaps even more of

I love those lazy Diaz leg kicks. Its like, meh, might as well. I'm a huge Diaz fan and would love to see him get the W. But as an MMA fan in general, I think this is a pretty tough fight to predict.

 

[AWilder]

Anything can happen in this fight,i throw my analysis completley out the window,due to the circumstances in which it was made.

Agreed, too many variables and unknowns. Diaz was certainly motivated for this fight after the MJ win and he looked great. I hope the same Nate shows up!

 

[Jiujitsu3208]

I do think Nate will win he has fought at 170 and understands his body at that fight weight I think his cardio will be find and I think a trip will take it to the ground and mate from there just my two cents I'll put what's left of my account lol

 

[AWilder]

I'm not necessarily picking Nate here, but come on, we've seen time and again what Nate can do when he's not worried about being taken down. This is by no means a gimme fight for Conor. Mad, respect to him for taking it, he's a G.
Nate's very good at using his reach to keep pressure on and back his opponent up, and he usually finds his range in the 2nd round and can really make guys uncomfortable. He's also a southpaw, his clinch game is underrated, and he holds an obvious light years of advantage on the ground. I think the MJ fight showed he's been working hard on defending kicks, and MJ got handled with 1-2's all night having just come off a very impressive stand up demolition of a mega-dynamic striker in Barbosa.
That said, Nate's not very good when he is backing up, he doesn't move off the center line a lot (though he does take angles subtly), he leaves a lot of openings, and he will get hit plenty in this fight. Conor's left hand should be less of a weapon but if he decides to kick and move and frustrate Nate, he can catch him clean and then we'll see if his power translates to higher weights. If it does, oh boy. His uppercut could be the weapon of choice after a few body shots.
I think Conor has the advantage mainly because he'll land cleaner shots, he's more elusive, and it's not like Nate is going to shoot single legs or attempt a lot of ankle picks. Nate's also on 11 days notice. But, if Nate is smart and can stay at his range, throw straight punches and try to force Conor against the cage so he can work the clinch, he's got a fine chance. If Conor decides not to run out to the center ala NBK so he can avoid being clinched up, one hip toss with Nate landing on top could be real trouble for Conor. Nate can also simply win rounds with that strategy.
Pretty even fight overall, imo, but with a lot of possible outcomes, including flash finishes from either guy. I just hope it goes into the later rounds so we can see how Conor responds at this weight.

Good comments, I need to watch some Diaz fights again and see how he responds to guys with better lateral movement. Iirc, MCG is pretty good about moving left or right and keeping himself off the fence, the fence being where both Diaz's really get to work.

 

[sickc0d3r]

Good comments, I need to watch some Diaz fights again and see how he responds to guys with better lateral movement. Iirc, MCG is pretty good about moving left or right and keeping himself off the fence, the fence being where both Diaz's really get to work.

Thanks. I'm also going to check out some of their fights before I put some money on this one. Need to see what fight pass has to offer.

 

[djason1988]

I think Nate may be one of the worst opponents for McGregor. Iron chin and limitless stamina, combined with quick and precise boxing. He's likely to outland McGregor 3-1 in strikes and wear him down to a tko. McGregor doesn't rely on his kicks enough for me to think they'll be a factor, and while he could crack Nate's chin, I have a really hard time seeing that happening.

 

[Porradossaurus]

I don't think Conor is going to KO Diaz. Even if he fucks Diaz up this can go 5 rounds, and it is going to be interesting to see how McGregor does in championship rounds against a fighter with solid chin.

 

[Tycho]

You are overlooking that Diaz has a reach advantage and good boxing skills, you are assuming in a striking war McGregor gets the upper hand, not necessarily, Diaz wins by outstriking from range and neutralising kicks. Big question is cardio since he's coming in unprepared. Both guys have a chin, neither is likely to go for takedowns, everything points to a war.

 

[Tycho]

I think Nate may be one of the worst opponents for McGregor. Iron chin and limitless stamina, combined with quick and precise boxing. He's likely to outland McGregor 3-1 in strikes and wear him down to a tko. McGregor doesn't rely on his kicks enough for me to think they'll be a factor, and while he could crack Nate's chin, I have a really hard time seeing that happening.

Don't assume Nate has limitless stamina coming into this with no camp.

 

[TrueMykill]

This may be a Anderson Silva v James Irvin situation...but I really hope not.

 

[Kick Strickland]

Just a quick UNBIASED analysis so gonna try to be brief.

Nate Diaz strengths: BJJ, boxing, cardio.

Weaknesses: vulnerable to leg kicks, lack of KO power, subpar wrestling.


The typical Nate Diaz win consists of Nate pressuring his opponent with high volume striking and eventually wearing them out for a late submission victory.


Without being able to hold the advantage in cardio, Nate will be forced to either come out strong and engage early(risk gassing ala Mendes) or be conservative and play into Conors game and risk being picked apart by the faster fighter with superior striking.


Keys to Victory:


Nate - even though he holds the height advantage, keep the fight in close range when possible, try to wear on Conor from the clinch, try to work in grappling as much as possible to attempt to get Conor out of his comfort zone. It could pay dividends in the later rounds specially if Conor gets overconfident.

Conor - Nate tends to rely on his chin too much, test it early if the opportunity presents itself. If not, YOU LITERALLY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO ENGAGE TO WIN. Nate is his own worst enemy in this fight and Conor holds every striking advantage, frustrate him with movement and score with even the most insignificant strikes. He will eventually leave an opening or tire out leaving him ripe for the picking.




Prediction: I do believe Nate's ego will get the best of him forcing him to engage in some entertaining exchanges/taunts with Conor back and forth for about a round or two. But Nate will slow down and Conor will pick up his timing/habbits and its cruise mode from then on. Conor is going to get a comfortable UD or quite possibly a late round finish.



Havent rooted for Conor since he fought Siver. But Im picking and rooting for him on this one because I really want to see the RDA fight.



There you go Sherbros, thank you for taking the time to read.


Please share thoughts and predictions.... Who you got???



EDIT: Fights taking place @ 170lbs!!! Even though I disagree with almost everything he says #Hespect to Conor for taking this fight, takes alot of guts to fight two weight classes up.

Your analysis is all dead fucking wrong and Nate will prove it for me.

And when Nate wins, you can still get RDA vs Conor since this fight is at ww and technically shouldn't effect the lw title fight.