Why Nate Diaz has VERY LITTLE chance of winning @ UFC 196...

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by BRASIL WAND, Feb 23, 2016.

  1. BRASIL WAND

    BRASIL WAND ▓▓▓AMERICAN TOP TEAM▓▓▓

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    Just a quick UNBIASED analysis so gonna try to be brief.

    Nate Diaz strengths: BJJ, boxing, cardio.

    Weaknesses: vulnerable to leg kicks, lack of KO power, subpar wrestling.


    The typical Nate Diaz win consists of Nate pressuring his opponent with high volume striking and eventually wearing them out for a late submission victory.


    Without being able to hold the advantage in cardio, Nate will be forced to either come out strong and engage early(risk gassing ala Mendes) or be conservative and play into Conors game and risk being picked apart by the faster fighter with superior striking.


    Keys to Victory:


    Nate - even though he holds the height advantage, keep the fight in close range when possible, try to wear on Conor from the clinch, try to work in grappling as much as possible to attempt to get Conor out of his comfort zone. It could pay dividends in the later rounds specially if Conor gets overconfident.

    Conor - Nate tends to rely on his chin too much, test it early if the opportunity presents itself. If not, YOU LITERALLY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO ENGAGE TO WIN. Nate is his own worst enemy in this fight and Conor holds every striking advantage, frustrate him with movement and score with even the most insignificant strikes. He will eventually leave an opening or tire out leaving him ripe for the picking.




    Prediction: I do believe Nate's ego will get the best of him forcing him to engage in some entertaining exchanges/taunts with Conor back and forth for about a round or two. But Nate will slow down and Conor will pick up his timing/habbits and its cruise mode from then on. Conor is going to get a comfortable UD or quite possibly a late round finish.



    Havent rooted for Conor since he fought Siver. But Im picking and rooting for him on this one because I really want to see the RDA fight.



    There you go Sherbros, thank you for taking the time to read.


    Please share thoughts and predictions.... Who you got???



    EDIT: Fights taking place @ 170lbs!!! Even though I disagree with almost everything he says #Hespect to Conor for taking this fight, takes alot of guts to fight two weight classes up.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2016
  2. Ald0

    Ald0 Brown Belt

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    unfortunately I agree. I just cannot see this being a successful fight for Nate.
     
  3. MEAN357

    MEAN357 DMF belt

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    nate doesnt have a chance in hell but I hope he'll atleast make it interesting.
     
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  4. 3betUSA

    3betUSA Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Nate wins
     
  5. Ron Rousseau

    Ron Rousseau White Belt

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    Its hard to imagine a Diaz gassing. Honestly, this is an awesome matchup and I think if McGregor gets a KO it will be by wheel kick
     
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  6. DontWaitUp

    DontWaitUp Jordan V

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    You get an 'A' for effort.
     
  7. Bend NvR Break

    Bend NvR Break Order to Chaos. Chaos to Order.

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    Nate is not going to clinch with Conor. He's going to box him at range. For every one punch Connor lands Nate will land 3-5. Fatigue will eventually set in for Conor and the finish will come soon after.

    McGregor best chance at winning is attempting to crack Nate's chin. He's a Diaz and it probably won't happen.
     
  8. wlu29

    wlu29 Banned Banned

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    Gonna be cheering for nate
     
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  9. MMAfanboy4life

    MMAfanboy4life Blue Belt

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    I think Nate makes it a fight, and at the very least lasts longer than Conor's last opponent:)
     
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  10. rplende

    rplende Green Belt

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    Nate Diaz is going to bust the McGregor hypetrain into oblivion.
     
  11. Zorrox

    Zorrox Brown Belt

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    How fucking funny would it be it Nate picked Conor apart with his boxing?
     
  12. Cazador

    Cazador Gold Belt

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    At 170 it can get interesting.

    I alreaddy posted in another thread that not being fat doesn't mean being in fighting shape, and it's still a two week notice fight, but the fact that he won't have to cut could play a factor in making it more competitive.
     
  13. TH1RTE3N

    TH1RTE3N Black Belt

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    Diaz doesn't have too many ways to win, but it's an interesting match up. I'm still not sure if Diaz has actually improved with that MJ win or if MJ was just being as inconsistant as he can normally be.
     
  14. DrDangles

    DrDangles Purple Belt

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    Nate has like a 3 inch height advantage. He also has the reach advantage by 3 inches (I think)

    And his chin is pretty good

    But out of shape, and often poor fight IQ
     
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  15. Fight To Win

    Fight To Win Red Belt

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  16. jko1355

    jko1355 Purple Belt

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    I am a diaz hater and a conor fan... but I disagree... Nate has never tired in a fight... the only time he looked beat was when he was getting leg kicked to hell by RDA... I think Conor should win the striking battle but I think your prediction is dead wrong. Conor wins by being more diverse not by Diaz tiring or Conor doing nothing...
     
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  17. DocK

    DocK I stay on bus

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    Obviously I don't think he'll win but Nate is a tougher matchup than most realize.
     
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  18. LaYLa & SaDiE

    LaYLa & SaDiE High on booty

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    Nate via being from the streetz
     
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  19. Donutdude

    Donutdude Green Belt

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    I'm far from a fan of either of them, but barring some sort of freak submission or KO, I just can't see how Nate wins this fight.
     
  20. Substance Abuse

    Substance Abuse Plutonium Belt Platinum Member

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    Nate needs to hope that Conor somehow gasses before hurting him in the stand up or he can somehow get him down and lock in a submission. Overall, I don't think he has much of a chance either.

    Props to both for taking the fight though.

    I really wish they would have done Pettis or Cerrone, however.
     

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