Why Nate Diaz has VERY LITTLE chance of winning @ UFC 196...

[freaky]

Just a quick UNBIASED analysis so gonna try to be brief.

Nate Diaz strengths: BJJ, boxing, cardio.

Weaknesses: vulnerable to leg kicks, lack of KO power, subpar wrestling.


The typical Nate Diaz win consists of Nate pressuring his opponent with high volume striking and eventually wearing them out for a late submission victory.


Without being able to hold the advantage in cardio, Nate will be forced to either come out strong and engage early(risk gassing ala Mendes) or be conservative and play into Conors game and risk being picked apart by the faster fighter with superior striking.


Keys to Victory:


Nate - even though he holds the height advantage, keep the fight in close range when possible, try to wear on Conor from the clinch, try to work in grappling as much as possible to attempt to get Conor out of his comfort zone. It could pay dividends in the later rounds specially if Conor gets overconfident.

Conor - Nate tends to rely on his chin too much, test it early if the opportunity presents itself. If not, YOU LITERALLY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO ENGAGE TO WIN. Nate is his own worst enemy in this fight and Conor holds every striking advantage, frustrate him with movement and score with even the most insignificant strikes. He will eventually leave an opening or tire out leaving him ripe for the picking.




Prediction: I do believe Nate's ego will get the best of him forcing him to engage in some entertaining exchanges/taunts with Conor back and forth for about a round or two. But Nate will slow down and Conor will pick up his timing/habbits and its cruise mode from then on. Conor is going to get a comfortable UD or quite possibly a late round finish.



Havent rooted for Conor since he fought Siver. But Im picking and rooting for him on this one because I really want to see the RDA fight.



There you go Sherbros, thank you for taking the time to read.


Please share thoughts and predictions.... Who you got???



EDIT: Fights taking place @ 170lbs!!! Even though I disagree with almost everything he says #Hespect to Conor for taking this fight, takes alot of guts to fight two weight classes up.

Nate is 3 inches taller with 2 inch reach adv. Also he is not longer vulnerable to leg kicks now as shown in his last fight. He checks leg kicks now.

On the feet both will pressure and/or taunt the other to attack first so they can counter. They have a very similar fighting style. I think Nate will try to get it to the floor and use his BJJ skills to sub McGoat.

This will be a very interesting fight. I still say McGoat wins but you gotta give Nate a little more credit. Nate is a much better fighter now and if he plays it smart and use his range advantage and take him down, this will be a very bad night for Conor.

 

[killerkalibur]

Now that it is at 170, Diaz is a good litmus test to see how Conor's power translates. Nate is not an elite fighter but good enough to see where Conor stands.

Not going to lie I am pumped. Sad to hear that the fight was not given to Pettis, Cerrone, or Khabib.

 

[bigconan]

Nate is not going to clinch with Conor. He's going to box him at range. For every one punch Connor lands Nate will land 3-5. Fatigue will eventually set in for Conor and the finish will come soon after.

McGregor best chance at winning is attempting to crack Nate's chin. He's a Diaz and it probably won't happen.

What freaken world are you living in? How is a much much slower fighter, going to outland conor. Who is far faster and hits much harder. Nate can take a good punch, but this is going to be a slaughter. 2nd round stoppage. mark it down now.

 

[CJohnny]

Conor will make it look easy.

But again, there will be excuses every where after the fight.

You can already expect this -

2 weeks notice
Out of shape
Nate has lot 3 of his last 5 fights.

But for now is

Nate is great. His boxing is amazing. He will beat Conor.

 

[Talon81]

Started off good until...

Without being able to hold the advantage in cardio... Nate will slow down and Conor will pick up his timing/habbits and its cruise mode

 

[Bend NvR Break]

What freaken world are you living in? How is a much much slower fighter, going to outland conor. Who is far faster and hits much harder. Nate can take a good punch, but this is going to be a slaughter. 2nd round stoppage. mark it down now.

The real world. I'm waiting for bovada to post up the odds so I can drop $500 on Nate. Hopefully can catch him anywhere above +250.

 

[billharford]

I'm calling it right now, Nate lasts a minimum of 14 seconds

 

[7th]

How fucking funny would it be it Nate picked Conor apart with his boxing?

funny and expected

 

[legkicktko]

Here is what you need to know from a striking perspective.

Conor is the far more talented striker, but...

His style makes the most of his reach advantage, he won't have that here.

His best punch is his straight left, Nate is a south paw, no longer open.

Nate uses something NONE of Conors opponents have... A long guard for boxing. He puts his arms far out and that fucks with boxers because it gives you no freedom to punch. It means you have to punch around his arms at awkward angles and it limits your freedom for combos because of it. This isn't exactly in Conors arsenal. Make no mistake, Thomson is the far inferior striker than MJ but MJ had no TD threat and payed for it.

How do you beat an mma fighter with a long guard? You wrestle them. Thomson did it, so did Bendo, so did RDA. It forces you to drop your hands to anticipate the takedowns.

Short notice definitely fucks him though.
Will that be a factor with Connor? We will have to see.

 

[Ryan McGizzle]

I'm putting some cash on Nate if it's +250 or better. Don't think anyone is giving him a chance. He's a better boxer than anyone is giving him credit for and he has the reach advantage.

 

[Lenny7]

One of the "best" pound for pound fighters against a 2-3 in his last 5 fighter? Yeah! We all know the fight Dana was scared of.

 

[Corleone187]

Nate will win for sure. I guarantee it.

If there is 1 bet u are going to make this year, make sure to bet on Diaz here.

The odds will give you a nice return, you may not have an opportunity for a nice sureshot return like this again

 

[Neitzsche]

You're an idiot if you think Diaz gasses. All the Diaz brothers do when they're not fighting is cardio train.

 

[Vikassi]

If he comes to fight like he did in his last outing .. were all in for a great fight.

 

[Neitzsche]

Nate has like a 3 inch height advantage. He also has the reach advantage by 3 inches (I think)

And his chin is pretty good

But out of shape, and often poor fight IQ

Nate is always in shape, your just saying this because he missed weight. Nate missed weight because he could give a shit at the time because he wasnt getting paid.

 

[Ald0]

How fucking funny would it be it Nate picked Conor apart with his boxing?

that and nate finishing conor would easily be an all time great mma moment for me for sure.

 

[BALLERSTATUSMCG]

I honestly consider Diaz to be at the very bottom of the LW division... he sucks dude. I actually prefer it this way though. I really wanted Conor to climb the LW division in a legit way and get to the title fight. I also think RDA needs to defend his title against Khabib first then let Conor take the winner of that

 

[DrDr]

Mcgregor's biggest weapon has always been his size at 145. He is like Weidman, unidimensional fighter with limited skills but very good at what he does and he wins primarily because he is fighting one or two weight classes below his true size. Once Weidman met a fighter as big or bigger with a good skill set (Rockhold), he got exposed and lost.. Noone ever seems to talk about how in the UFC size can be the biggest reason why a fighter wins.

Nate is a tough fight for anyone even with only 12 days to trains. He is much bigger than Mcgregor and strong where Mcgregor is strong (hands) and has only been TKOed once. I"ve never seen anyone outbox him, I doubt Mcgregor, who isn't fast or explosive like RDA and even admits he lacks speed and explosion can easily defeat Diaz.

I think no matter what happens Mcgregor has a strong chance of losing his luster after this fight. He would be better off fighting 5'3 and 5'4" and 5;6" fighters like he did on his way to his belt. Size will be his undoing.

 

[robjenkins2]

Nate needs to hope that Conor somehow gasses before hurting him in the stand up or he can somehow get him down and lock in a submission. Overall, I don't think he has much of a chance either.

Props to both for taking the fight though.

I really wish they would have done Pettis or Cerrone, however.

Nate matches up better than either Cowboy or Pettis do imo

 

[robjenkins2]

I honestly consider Diaz to be at the very bottom of the LW division... he sucks dude. I actually prefer it this way though. I really wanted Conor to climb the LW division in a legit way and get to the title fight. I think RDA needs to defend his title against Khabib first then let Conor take the winner of that

lol you're an idiot if you believe that then, he just handily beat the number 5 guy in the division coming off a year layoff.