Economy White House changes the definition of Recession

MoparOrNoCar said:
Lmao you guys are in the exact same discussion I had with Jack over a year ago about inflation.

Don't get pulled into the trolling.
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Jack is a God! I remember arguing with him about gas prices almost instantly going up once Joe got elected. He said it happens all the time and basically I have no clue what I'm talking about. Bravo Jack for being so smart!
 
Blayt7hh said:
Well, that is actually mostly true. What do you think the president can actually do in the short run to turn the economy around?
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The main thing that policy can do for the economy is boost demand when there's a shortfall. That's generally done by the Fed (which is sort of independent, but you can kind of indirectly credit/blame presidents for that--though note that the Fed chair terms don't line up with presidential terms). If interest rates are as low as they can go and there is still a demand shortfall, fiscal policy can speed up a recovery. That's rarely happened in our history, though it did during both Obama and Biden's presidency. Of course, changes in fiscal policy also require Congress (which is why Obama didn't get as much stimulus as he wanted, for example). Other things that can affect the economy are increasing immigration, infrastructure improvements (or I guess failing to improve them or decreasing immigration can have negative impacts), gov't-funded (directly or indirectly) R&D boosts (that doesn't show up for a while, though), and tariffs can slow growth (not much more juice to squeeze out of lowering trade barriers, though there probably is some).

In terms of inflation, the second relief package was somewhat excessive. Gets credit for boosting growth, but it also boosted demand growth beyond what our capacity could handle and thus contributed to higher inflation. Other geopolitical factors drove the bulk of the growth, though (which is why the rest of the world has also seen a burst of high inflation--a very inconvenient fact for hacks who want to blame Biden or the Fed--though blaming the Fed is effectively blaming Trump, which hacks don't realize).
 
Bald1 said:
They can't seem to define "woman" so don't expect anything concrete.
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Why the hackish sniping? You saw that the definition hasn't changed. Republicans are just straight up lying ITT, and they've been caught red-handed. You good with that?
 
Jack V Savage said:
Why the hackish sniping? You saw that the definition hasn't changed. Republicans are just straight up lying ITT, and they've been caught red-handed. You good with that?
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Would you be just as content if it was Trump's team playing this smoke and mirrors game?
 
Lead said:
I wonder how long it will go. Like does Wikipedia have a process if something keeps getting added then removed?
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Who knows but that's why you don't take wiki as Gospel. If they left some hack arbitrarily move the goals posts without some sort of consensus... Not sure how you can give the site any credibility.
 
TeTe said:
Who knows but that's why you don't take wiki as Gospel. If they left some hack arbitrarily move the goals posts without some sort of consensus... Not sure how you can give the site any credibility.
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Oh, I don’t. I thought the certainty of seeing the edits today for that specific thing had to be above 80% and wanted to see if I was right. That site must be a whole world of madness for people who try to make edits a hobby.
 
Bald1 said:
Would you be just as content if it was Trump's team playing this smoke and mirrors game?
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Well there is no smoke and mirrors game. That's the point. If people had falsely claimed that the Trump WH changed a definition of something, I would oppose that. I think lying is bad no matter who does it, but apparently I'm the only one ITT who does.
 
Blayt7hh said:
Well, that is actually mostly true. What do you think the president can actually do in the short run to turn the economy around? Part of being capitalist is that the government doesn't have a lot of say in what happens in the economy. When I have asked directly what Biden has or has not done to make the economy so bad, people don't usually have an answer. That's because there is very little tied to a president that can change the economy in the short term. I think I have heard literally one legitimate complaint about the administration, and that the administration has continued to print money and has contributed to our inflation problems. While that certainly raises eyebrows, I think we all know that that is not the sole cause of the record-high inflation we are seeing. There are multiple factors causing inflation and some of the have impacted the entire world, not just the US.

I think it's telling that within weeks of Biden taking office on this subforum I already saw a bunch of posters laying all the problems we were facing laid at his feet. I also see a lot of his proposed policies blamed for the state of the economy when they were never passed. It's because people have an almost childish view of his role in the economy. The fixes he can make are almost all long-term solutions, such as solving a major break in our supply chain by building microchip manufacturers in the US. That's going to take years to do and probably even longer to reap the benefits of.
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When you declare a goal of replacing 50% of America's vehicles by 2030 with electric and say you are going to take drastic steps to curb fossil fuel use in the years between, declare war on fossil fuels, sign executive orders on day 1 in office killing pipelines underway, force refineries to make costly renovations to better stop emissions and cutting off any new leases on drilling on public lands and waters to signal your green cred, it has immediate negative repercussions in the form of big oil now seeing it as a losing investment to build new refineries or upgrade old ones.

The USA is producing a lot less gas now. Despite folks saying "But they are drilling the same amount of Oil", they conveniently ignore the half dozen refineries that have shut down since COVID and more to come as LyondellBasell has signaled they will shutter their refinery due to America's fossil fuel direction by 2023, as have several others. And nobody is lining up to build new ones as its now considered a short term losing investment. The only way folks get back into that game with money is if the Government builds refineries themselves, or a signal is given to investors that refineries won't be irrelevant soon, which means backpedalling on green stuff.

Fuel trickles into many parts of the economy. Its a huge need in farming for machinery and production of Nitrogen fertilizer, Fuel to transport of goods by Truck/Rail/Ship, etc

Incidentally, Trudeau just declared Fertilizer too shitty a carbon emitter in Canada so he is legislating a goal of Fertilizer use reduction by 2030. As a net exporter of food, the costs of retrofitting and reduced yields will be passed on to the consumers, which is both Canadian citizens and whoever we export to. Since 71% of our exports go to you, you will probably be feeling our pain too. He's also looking at cutting our wood exports to the USA by half to save forests, not sure how losing half of 18 billion in wood affects you, but we are only 6.2% of your wood imports. im sure whoever else you import from will jump right in
 
The theory that announcing good environmental policy goals hurts the energy industry's feelings so much that it has a material impact on prices is, of course, preposterous. You won't find any serious analyst support that. There's just a huge gap between people who actually study and are curious about this stuff and people whose analysis doesn't go any further than "other party in power = bad."
 
Jack V Savage said:
The theory that announcing good environmental policy goals hurts the energy industry's feelings so much that it has a material impact on prices is, of course, preposterous. You won't find any serious analyst support that. There's just a huge gap between people who actually study and are curious about this stuff and people whose analysis doesn't go any further than "other party in power = bad."
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Tell us more, economic savant who couldn't predict out of control inflation, that a bunch of chuds on an MMA forum saw coming a mile away...

You're so smart, Jackie! We all bask in your unrivaled intellectual superiority!
 
deadon said:
They won't even say what a recession is lol.
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lmao, was just about to post this. Told you on the other thread that the presser is going to be brutal. The numbers aren’t even out yet, so Thursday is going to be much more embarrassing lol.
 
cottagecheesefan said:
lmao, was just about to post this. Told you on the other thread that the presser is going to be brutal. The numbers aren’t even out yet, so Thursday is going to be much more embarrassing lol.
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You were right lol. Now CNN is asking these questions? Wow that's when you know it's hitting the fan.
 
Jack V Savage said:
The theory that announcing good environmental policy goals hurts the energy industry's feelings so much that it has a material impact on prices is, of course, preposterous. You won't find any serious analyst support that. There's just a huge gap between people who actually study and are curious about this stuff and people whose analysis doesn't go any further than "other party in power = bad."
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<LikeReally5>
 
Since the topic of this thread has changed:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-calls-are-totally-delusional-roubini-warns

Economist Nouriel Roubini said the US is facing a deep recession as interest rates rise and the economy is burdened by high debt loads, calling those expecting a shallow downturn “delusional.”

“There are many reasons why we are going to have a severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis,” the chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates said on Bloomberg TV Monday. “The idea that this is going to be short and shallow is totally delusional.”
​
Dr. Doom doesn’t seem too positive hehe
​
 
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