Economy White House changes the definition of Recession

[Rob Battisti]

Notice that I asked two simple questions. You wrote this long, hackish response but you didn't answer either. Why is that?

JFC I did!

1. yes they are redefining the commonly held understanding of what a recession is to suit themselves.

If they weren’t trying to get ahead of it, they wouldn’t need to put out a statement saying, “yeah everyone and their mother knows it’s 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but actually it isn’t! Also inflation was because we’re doing so well!”

 

[Jack V Savage]

JFC I did!

1. yes they are redefining the commonly held understanding of what a recession is to suit themselves.

??? Did you read the link I posted? Do you think they went back in time?

https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008

 

[ElKarlo]

I posted a link that has a definition of recession from 2008. Since rob is too dishonest to answer, I'll give you a chance:

1. Did the WH change the definition of recession?

Jack from your link
We view real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity. In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, we therefore place considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, however, and the BEA's real GDP estimates are only available quarterly. For this reason, we refer to a variety of monthly indicators to determine the months of peaks and troughs.


Basically GDP is the real measure. Everything else is just details.
The WH is trying to argue that the details being different, means the GDP argument isn’t true.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Last time you made this stupid point, I asked you if we ever declared a recession when unemployment was 3.6% and falling. If not, you're also saying that 2022 is a unicorn if you're trying to declare a recession after a very minor retrenchment following a year of explosive economic growth.

April 2008 during the Great Recession, unemployment was only 5%. Not far off 3.6. That recession started December 2007 and the 10% unemployment number wasn’t hit until October 2009.

The unemployment rate rise lags the recession beginning. Unemployment isn’t the indicator of the beginning of a recession, it’s the symptom.

ignoring the fact we’re in the beginning of a recession will only make the recession worse once it starts to hit the unemployment, just like ignoring the beginnings of the inflation rate taking off.

 

[Rob Battisti]

April 2008 during the Great Recession, unemployment was only 5%. Not far off 3.6. That recession started December 2007 and the 10% unemployment number wasn’t hit until October 2009.

The unemployment rate rise lags the recession beginning. Unemployment isn’t the indicator of the beginning of a recession, it’s the symptom.

ignoring the fact we’re in the beginning of a recession will only make the recession worse once it starts to hit the unemployment, just like ignoring the beginnings of the inflation rate taking off.

What’s the problem with admitting the problem? I just don’t understand.

 

[HockeyBjj]

What’s the problem with admitting the problem? I just don’t understand.

Poll numbers, and a rough mid term election coming up

Just like using the federal reserves to lower gas prices

Obama when republicans pulled similar stunts in 2008- "This isn't an idea designed to get you through the summer, it's an idea designed to get them through an election,"

 

[deadon]

Everything is fine nothing to see here. The bubble will pop, give it time.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Everything is fine nothing to see here. The bubble will pop, give it time.

CPI is also bullshit in the way they calculate housing data increases and approximation of other goods. For all intents and purposes, inflation is nearer to 13% at least.

 

[deadon]

CPI is also bullshit in the way they calculate housing data increases and approximation of other goods. For all intents and purposes, inflation is nearer to 13% at least.

At the least.

 

[deadon]

Oh boy Wells Fargo didn't get the memo.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Oh boy Wells Fargo didn't get the memo.

Live look at White House showcasing the economic BOOM.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Jack from your link
We view real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity. In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, we therefore place considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, however, and the BEA's real GDP estimates are only available quarterly. For this reason, we refer to a variety of monthly indicators to determine the months of peaks and troughs.


Basically GDP is the real measure. Everything else is just details.
The WH is trying to argue that the details being different, means the GDP argument isn’t true.

GDP is a key measure. It's not the only one. And GDP grew insanely fast in 2021. At any rate, I'm not seeing how it's not definitively proved that there's been no change in the definition or why it's good to lie about that.

ignoring the fact we’re in the beginning of a recession will only make the recession worse once it starts to hit the unemployment, just like ignoring the beginnings of the inflation rate taking off.

The issue is that for real decision-makers, it's important to get things right, while you guys are looking at it solely in terms of politics. Premature monetary tightening or contractionary fiscal policy would have had dire effects in early 2021. Similarly, expansionary policy now because people are politically pressured into pretending we're in a recession would have very bad consequences in the real world (the fear about a recession coming is based on a potentially over aggressive cooling).

 

[HockeyBjj]

The issue is that for real decision-makers, it's important to get things right,

Yes. And after getting inflation wrong, I'm seeing similar things of federal government not heeding the very obvious warnings signs. And the only reason I can think that they'd be ignoring them like this, is because they wish to keep up pretenses that things are fine so that it's not a bad look on the party in charge.

Money tightening effects in fall of 2021 would have been benefecial. The summer jump to 5% was a reaction to coming out of the covid hits. The jumps to 6% clearly on it's way to 7 should have been the sign to start acting. Waiting until it was 8.5% in March 2022 was a mistake.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Yes. And after getting inflation wrong, I'm seeing similar things of federal government not heeding the very obvious warnings signs.

Well, not everyone is a super genius like you think you are, apparently.

And the only reason I can think that they'd be ignoring them like this, is because they wish to keep up pretenses that things are fine so that it's not a bad look on the party in charge.

The only reason you can think that economists might disagree with you is that they're scheming monsters who are conspiring to help the Evil Democrats? No other possibility that you can see?

Money tightening effects in fall of 2021 would have been benefecial. The summer jump to 5% was a reaction to coming out of the covid hits. The jumps to 6% clearly on it's way to 7 should have been the sign to start acting. Waiting until it was 8.5% in March 2022 was a mistake.

The initial boost was a result of the booming economy, and then unforeseen geopolitical events added to it. Still looking like the underlying number is around 4%. But are you now calling for loosening (which would be implied by the idea that we're in a recession)?

 

[HockeyBjj]

But are you now calling for loosening (which would be implied by the idea that we're in a recession)?

Calling for acknowledging we're in a recession as it's the lesser evil of the runaway inflation

 

[So Fresh]

I love how this went from a “the white house is changing definitions” thread to a “they are lying about a recession” thread because the first was factually wrong

 

[Jack V Savage]

Calling for acknowledging we're in a recession as it's the lesser evil of the runaway inflation

Well, I think if you submit your evidence and it's clear as you say, people will have no choice but to acknowledge it. But I suspect you're actually just a mindless partisan and don't have any. I guess prove me wrong.

 

[Peli]

They will always try to spin things, I'm speaking on policitians in general. Trump did the same thing with job numbers, and also with covid. Politicians are really not in our best interests especially the only ones.

 

[The XL]

These people are dangerous and have bad intentions. The country has been taken over.

 

[Jack V Savage]

They will always try to spin things, I'm speaking on policitians in general. Trump did the same thing with job numbers, and also with covid. Politicians are really not in our best interests especially the only ones.

But the NBER aren't politicians, and the accusation that they're acting in political interests is a serious and totally unfounded accusation. It's one of the clearest signs of the moral rot on the right these days that people are comfortable publicly making all kinds of outrageous and completely baseless accusations of people just because they're not rightists.