In general I don't read your posts, not because you're not decently informed or worthless (which can't be said for the american scum who fill up the war thread) but because trying to read your English gives me a headache (and boy do you type a lot of words to ache my head with), so I don't want to get into a long OT exchanges with you here.
but to sketch over a few points:
(i) Yes Ukraine had a shitty army in 2012, they were suffering big losses to the rebels initially. So, why didn't Putler roll up the Ukraine back then when it was easy, instead of waiting another decade, by which time Ukraine had the biggest army in Europe?
(I'm not sure what you mean by 'during 22 years had demilitarized each year' or 'it is easy to see by googling up' either, for instance in about 5 seconds I google up:
'By February 2018, the Ukrainian armed forces were larger and better equipped than ever before, numbering 200,000 active-service military personnel' from the
most mainstream source possible).
(ii) indeed instead of invading or forcing a formal secession of the DNR/LNR, he signed the (garbage) Minsk peace treaties, which pushed DNR back into Ukraine, and in Russia there was a heavy crackdown on loud pro-war voices (bloggers were arrested, guys like Dugin were fired from their jobs, etc; also the rebel leaders in Donbass were assassinated, probably by the Ukes IMO but conspiretard theories that it was the FSB can't be ruled out either). Does that sound like the actions of a guy itching to invade Ukraine (and Europe) to you? Sounds like the actions of a guy with a weak hand wanting to avoid conflict to me. That's actually how Putin consistently behaves, and we see it again in the peace treaty offer that the USA sent Johnson out to block after the invasion in 2022 (
supposedly it would have recognised Donbass as part of Ukraine and even paid a rent for Crimea!!).
- meanwhile Western leaders like Merkel and Sarkozy have now openly described the peace treaties as being 'to buy time to strengthen Ukraine' - a sham. And indeed as mentioned it went from losing to ragtag militias in 2012 to the biggest army in Europe by 2022. Sounds like a scheme to me!
US might not have sent heavy arms before 2022, but there was certainly a large number of 'advisors', spec ops guys, training operations, and of course unholy sums of corrupt cash flowing about the place... all the common patterns the US has pursued to foster conflict in Europe and Mid East since the 90s (colour revs etc) to spread its power are all over the place...
(iii) Ukraine is essentially defacto a part of NATO now, so whether it formally joins or not the next 5 years is beside the point, besides this (NATO expansion) and other simple talking points ('muh Nazis') are just one of many points that lead us to this place; for instance one thing that particularly triggered Putin (we know because he kept mentioning it) was Zelinsky saying in one breath he was going to get nukes, then another he was going to take Crimea back 'by all means'. Understandably, Putin took such words seriously. Remember when USA 'convinced' the world that it was OK to invade Iraq because they had WMD (except that was fake nonsense invented by US intel that literally nobody believes today)? well here we have this guy
openly saying he is going to use WMD, and getting invaded (partly - there are many factors) as a result of that. Fair's fair...?
As for his reelection, who cares, Zelnsiky is only a puppet (the fighting started years before he even entered politics via kafkaesque means) and not even fully in control of the country, which was a semi-anarchy of armed gangs in many parts even before 2022. & the whole place was puppetised by the US in 2012, he's just the current 'face' of the regime there.
(iv) if there's one thing I would say is most important to Putin in this conflict, starting in 2012, is the naval base in Sevastapol, the most important naval base in Russia; everything his govt has ever done has always centered around not allowing it to fall into American hands at any cost; they've shown themselves willing to negotiate or 'let slide'
everything else at one point or another, even if they don't like it. Again, not really the behavior of a crazed ego-fuelled man wanting to conquer swathes of land, but of someone with a (relatively) weak hand doing the bare minimum to keep his country's end up and vacillating about everything else (until US pressure forced him to play his cards, and even then play them in fairly weak way to start with).
)
