Warroom election prediction thread!
- Thread starter Quipling
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Godspeed all
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I think all the picks are visible on the form listed on the first page.
Generally, I don't claim to know anything that anyone else doesn't here. I suspect that Clinton will outperform her polls at least a little because of a better-run campaign/"ground game." I changed by popular-vote prediction downward, but I already regret that, and I don't want to keep bothering Quipling. Right now, I'd guess 5.5%.
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BTW, another meta prediction is that the average prediction here will be low on Clinton, which I think reflects an asymmetry in irrationality on the part of partisans.
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No, in 2008 Sharia Law wasn't a very big thing.
If you'll remember, he was going to install radical left-wing terrorism because he was friends with Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright. How was a president going to be a terrorist to his own government, you're wondering? Stop asking questions, he just was and that's all there is to it.
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This election is what 2008 was to black people. Instead of blacks really wanting to get a guy in, Latinos really want to keep a guy out.
Either way, Latinos are energized beyond anything I've ever seen before.
Prediction: He gets less than 22% of the Latino vote
Overall prediction:
Hillary- 48%
Trump- 43%
Johnson- 4%
Stein- 2%
Others- 3%
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The minute he opened his mouth about illegals being rapists etc I knew he was done in that community
It would have been easy to be the strong anti abortion candidate and middle of the road on immigration and steal the entire Latino vote.
They really don't like democrats. They want a voice in America and have tremendous family values.
However the wall and harsh anti Mexican rhetoric really rallied the back woods white dudes.
They really believe illegals are ruining their life and the economy.
It was a bad trade imo for trump to lose one rally the other
He never needed to rally those guys on that issue
They were never voting Hillary
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They were going Democrat though. No matter who it was. Latinos would prefer an open border baby killer over a build a wall fetus hugger every day. And If it had been a more moderate Republican running, fewer Latinos would have come out. But so would much fewer uneducated racist white people. So Hillary would probably have still ended up winning.
There are just not that many politicians skilled enough to stir up the racist underbelly of the nation and simultaneously keep the people they are prejudiced towards unmotivated.
It's not a bad strategy on Trumps part. Fan racial flames and stir up the pissed off white people. And at the same time be so fucking awful and disgusting that maybe it will suppress voter turnout in general. It's just a tough tightrope to walk.
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Trump could have won this election, but he fu*ked up on numerous things.
1. He didnt do any real homework or prep work. While his base may like his "off the cuff" style, it makes undecideds think hes not taking things seriously.
2. He was way too reactionary and defensive. When all the personal shit came up, he simply needed to make it clear he made mistakes in his personal life but Hillary has made mistakes that cost people their lives.
3. He fu*ked up "bigly" by saying the vote is rigged and he might not accept the results. Saying its rigged makes people think there is no reason to even vote, and not accepting the results throws gasoline on the fire of a country that is very divided.
4. Minorities make up roughly 32-35% of the electorate. He lost around 15% of that the first day he decided to run, and another 10% when every statement about black people implies he thinks they all live in the inner-city in abject poverty.
5. He has arguably the worst ground game in the last 20 years. If he had put money/effort into getting people at his rallies to canvas for him and do more than just show up and boost his ego, it could have been the deciding difference in the battlegrounds.
1. He didnt do any real homework or prep work. While his base may like his "off the cuff" style, it makes undecideds think hes not taking things seriously.
2. He was way too reactionary and defensive. When all the personal shit came up, he simply needed to make it clear he made mistakes in his personal life but Hillary has made mistakes that cost people their lives.
3. He fu*ked up "bigly" by saying the vote is rigged and he might not accept the results. Saying its rigged makes people think there is no reason to even vote, and not accepting the results throws gasoline on the fire of a country that is very divided.
4. Minorities make up roughly 32-35% of the electorate. He lost around 15% of that the first day he decided to run, and another 10% when every statement about black people implies he thinks they all live in the inner-city in abject poverty.
5. He has arguably the worst ground game in the last 20 years. If he had put money/effort into getting people at his rallies to canvas for him and do more than just show up and boost his ego, it could have been the deciding difference in the battlegrounds.
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Kind of. The vast majority of Clinton respondents predicted a margin of either 30-100 or 101-170, with more going lower. 8/70 Clinton respondents predicted either an electoral or national vote blowout (240+/8% margin).
5/14 Trump respondents predicted an even narrower Trump victory (mostly variations of a NH route that was posted on the_donald). 4/14 predicted margins in the 30-170 range, but two of those predicted blowout voter margins of 9.7 and 11. A few others predicted electoral blowouts too, though 4 didn't make any complex predictions. I'm not counting the person who submitted a 350000 point Trump victory.
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Cooks pretty much nailed it. If Trump would have gone moderate on immigrants and Muslims he would have been in the single digits right along Jeb, Kasich and the other moderates.
The truth of the matter is a whole lot of the conservative base demands bigotry. In the early 2000s Dubya could get away with speaking a little bit of Spanish and being moderate (by Republican standards) on immigrants and winning the GOP nomination. Those were different times.
In 2016, after 8 years of a black guy as president, gay marriage becoming legal, and no huge war in the Middle East to rally behind, the right feels more threatened than ever and they desperately want a guy to put all these people back in their places.
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i predict several triggered posters and at least one full meltdown in the war room....
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You aim low
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No I thought the vote was rigged because in a rust belt state that had been destroyed by free trade, the person who wrote TPP won, who also happened to be the wife of the guy who signed NAFTA.
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Perhaps that's true
I've got 4 ultra conservative amigos I group text
Only one truly loved trump from day one
And now all but one voted for him with a big hard on for him
The outcast who is probably the best thinker voted Gary Johnson cuz he he thinks both candidates are garbage
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President Daddy!
D
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Trump was at +400. Good value bet. Might have to get in on that. lol
