Warroom election prediction thread!

[Anung Un Rama]

@Quipling or @anybody : do we have a stat on voter turnout as a %?
I'm reading conflicting information. I predicted that this would be the lowest turnout since '92 (I actually meant, '96 ('92 was actually decent turnout relative to US general elections historically speaking).
The most recent article I could find backs me up:
"So it isn't a surprise that approximately 117 million people who were eligible to vote didn't in this year's election, according to Canada's Global News. Only 200 million people out of the 241 million eligible were actually registered to vote, putting voter turnout around 51 to 52 percent."


1996 49.0%
2000 50.3%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

Obviously I won't have "nailed it" based on these stats (if they are indeed accurate). but it seems that most people were predicting record turnout, right?
Other articles have shown decent turnout, less than '08, but slightly more than '12.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Damn. I did good but I just saw that I accidentally picked Trump to win by +241 to +300 range (which is ridiculous and impossible with NY and Cali) Was filling it out fast. Ooops. Hope it doesn't cost me the win.

I was skimming and saw the 300 and was putting him down to get 300 electoral votes (instead of +300)

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Damn. I did good but I just saw that I accidentally picked Trump to win by +241 to +300 range (which is ridiculous and impossible with NY and Cali) Was filling it out fast. Ooops. Hope it doesn't cost me the win

And a belated congratulations to you and @sodapopinski for your candidate winning. You guys called it and have done a phenomenal job reporting on the corruption the DNC tried to force upon us.
Props for your posting the last few months. Hope your plat account is comped, you earned it. Same w/ sodapop. Dude deserves a free plat account for his efforts. @Lead @Zankou @Ruprecht @Madmick @Peteyandjia

 

[dissolved]

And a belated congratulations to you and @sodapopinski for your candidate winning. You guys called it and have done a phenomenal job reporting on the corruption the DNC tried to force upon us.
Props for your posting the last few months. Hope your plat account is comped, you earned it. Same w/ sodapop. Dude deserves a free plat account for his efforts. @Lead @Zankou @Ruprecht @Madmick @Peteyandjia

Uh, there's a couple more in @ripskater and @In The Name Of , right up to the final day!

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Uh, there's a couple more in @ripskater and @In The Name Of , right up to the final day!

And props to you and @ripskater as well. There are others no doubt.

 

[dissolved]

And props to you and @ripskater as well. There are others no doubt.

It's all good. I'm not delusional enough to think the job is done. Tensions are higher than ever, lots of prayer and work ahead for everyone. Glad to see someone like @Strychnine believing the same as a Clinton supporter.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

It's all good. I'm not delusional enough to think the job is done. Tensions are higher than ever, lots of prayer and work ahead for everyone. Glad to see someone like @Strychnine believing the same as a Clinton supporter.

@Strychnine is one of the legit best people on this board. And a believer, I hope you guys are sherfriends outside of politics.

 

[dissolved]

@Strychnine is one of the legit best people on this board. And a believer, I hope you guys are sherfriends outside of politics.

I think he's a pretty good dude. Politics aside, the coming together in redevotion to God, and the cleansing of our lives from those things which hurt and divide will be the highest priority in saving America and The West generally.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

I think he's a pretty good dude. Politics aside, the coming together in redevotion to God, and the cleansing of our lives from those things which hurt and divide will be the highest priority in saving America and The West generally.

I'm not a believer. I was, but lost my faith. I appreciate you guys that do though. I miss it.

 

[dissolved]

I'm not a believer. I was, but lost my faith. I appreciate you guys that do though. I miss it.

It's never too late (well I guess once you're dead). God hasn't forgotten you. I haven't had the straightest path myself, but I've come to the conclusion that the most clear-minded, best periods of my life were when I was in close relationship with God, believing and being disciplined in the faith. Still working to get back to where I need to be.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

It's never too late (well I guess once you're dead). God hasn't forgotten you. I haven't had the straightest path myself, but I've come to the conclusion that the most clear-minded, best periods of my life were when I was in close relationship with God, believing and being disciplined in the faith. Still working to get back to where I need to be.

Absolutely, but faith, for me anyhow, doesn't seem to be a muscle I can exercise. For me it was an inherent value that I've lost. I don't disbelieve, but its weak, not strong enough to invoke or rationalize/ influence my decisions in life. I'd rather leave it at that; there isn't a personal story to go with it, but I consider it a personal subject that I'm not very comfortable talking about. Thank you, though.

 

[Quipling]

Top 10 Trump Selectors

Spoiler

MANIAC123 95
Hans Gruber 73
tkotom 69
Jin Akutsu 64
Irish_Thug 56
HeLLMuTT 55
@SMEAC 48
@Space 48

Top 10 Clinton Selectors

Spoiler

rational poster 61
Lead 60
Fawlty 57
ucunc156 55
@Higus 54
@K1levelgrappler 54
@BKMMAFAN 52
@JDragon 52
@Jack V Savage 51
@aitkenmike 50

Top 10 State Predictions

Spoiler

MANIAC123 41
Lead 37
ucunc156 37
aitkenmike 37
Higus 36
K1levelgrappler 36
Hans Gruber 35
@foxnoob 35
@Soul_of_Rage 35
Fawlty 34

TOP 10 OVERALL

Spoiler

@MANIAC123 95
@Hans Gruber 73
@tkotom 69
@Jin Akutsu 64
@Rational Poster 61
@Lead 60
@Fawlty 57
@irish_thug 56
@ucunc156 55
@HeLLMuTT 55

Honorable mention: Shinobi 61, Randomdude 56. Not eligible due either being banned or a fictitious account. Shame on the person who submitted under somebody else's name.

Notes: Unless stated otherwise, all margins were by %. This means that Michigan, and not New Hampshire, was the closest. As the senator question has not yet resolved, I granted 5 points to anyone who said 2 or 3 seats lost. Hans, you were behind the leader by a good 22 points, so even if the NH and the electoral college submissions had gone in your favor, you still would have lost.

If the Who Will Win question was eliminated, MMAManiac would still be the leader by 14 points. If the electoral college question was eliminated as well, he would be the leader by 9 points. If the Vote Margin question were to be eliminated instead, Rational Poster would be the leader by 1 point. (6 if all three were eliminated).

Only 7 posters got within 2% of the vote margin. MMAManiac was the only one who thought Trump would win - the others suggested a ~2% Hillary victory, and received 1-2 points. The remaining Trump posters did not submit an estimate or estimated a really large victory margin.

Only 3 people predicted Ohio correctly.

Only 2 people predicted Utah correctly

Only 5 people predicted South Carolina correctly

Lots of people lost points underestimating margins in highly partisan states (NY, Wyoming, etc).

Six people said that Utah would go third party. One of those was one of the two people who said vermont would, too.

Two people said Barack Obama would refuse to accept the results of the election. One of those was one of two people who said a major candidate would be forced out before the results were in.

Full results:

Spoiler

1 MANIAC123 95
2 Hans Gruber 73
3 tkotom 69
4 Jin Akutsu 64
5 Shinobi (banned) 61
6 rational poster 61
7 Lead 60
8 Fawlty 57
9 Irish_Thug 56
10 Randomdude 56
11 HeLLMuTT 55
12 ucunc156 55
13 Higus 54
14 K1levelgrappler 54
15 bkmmafan 52
16 JDragon 52
17 Jack V Savage 51
18 aitkenmike 50
19 Quipling 49
20 Joe 49
21 foxnoob 48
22 SMEAC 48
23 Space 48
24 PureDominance 47
25 KOQ24 46
26 Soul_Of_Rage 43
27 Mainez 43
28 Drstrangelov 41
29 m52nickerson 40
30 ncordless 40
31 Striderxdj 39
32 Arkain2K 39
33 In The Name Of 39
34 CZMuayThai11 39
35 Funcrusher2007 37
36 cooks1 37
37 Saugeye Killah 35
38 DangDaGawd 34
39 NelmarksGhost 34
40 JudoThrowFiasco 33
41 RhinoRush 32
42 Rosconation 32
43 bad seed 31
44 Rob Battisti 30
45 Diamond Jim 29
46 kpt018 29
47 Dr J 28
48 Possum Jenkins 27
49 HomerThompson 26
50 Mark hunts fist 26
51 Scott Parker 27 26
52 LiLoMMA 25
53 Cuzcatlan 23
54 Limbo Pete 22
55 AngryCrow 21
56 Daverisimo 21
57 Hitmandn 20
58 Dizzy Daze 20
59 Silus_2000 20
60 sickc0d3r 19
61 Strychnine 19
62 Gandhi 19
63 CEROVFC 19
64 Logicalinsanity 18
65 panamaican 18
66 Charles Manson 18
67 Sidjustice 18
68 BryanIam 18
69 Ruprecht 18
70 cleetus 17
71 King of Fists 15
72 Darkballs 13
73 Falsedawn 13
74 Overpressure 13
75 @indrid 12
76 theBLADE1 8
77 Thames 2
78 Kbe6ekctah_ccp 2
79 Kill Kill 0
80 ShinkanPo 0
81 KnightTemplar 0

Standings if the 20 point Who Will Win question was eliminated:

Spoiler

1 MANIAC123 75
2 Shinobi (banned) 61
3 rational poster 61
4 Lead 60
5 Fawlty 57
6 ucunc156 55
7 Higus 54
8 K1levelgrappler 54
9 Hans Gruber 53
10 bkmmafan 52
11 JDragon 52
12 Jack V Savage 52
13 aitkenmike 50
14 tkotom 49
15 Quipling 49
16 Joe 49
17 foxnoob 48
18 PureDominance 47
19 KOQ24 46
20 Jin Akutsu 44
21 Soul_Of_Rage 43
22 Mainez 43
23 Drstrangelov 41
24 m52nickerson 40
25 ncordless 40
26 Striderxdj 39
27 Arkain2K 39
28 Funcrusher2007 37
29 cooks1 37
30 Irish_Thug 36
31 Randomdude 36
32 HeLLMuTT 35
33 Saugeye Killah 35
34 DangDaGawd 34
35 NelmarksGhost 34
36 JudoThrowFiasco 33
37 Rosconation 32
38 bad seed 31
39 Rob Battisti 30
40 Diamond Jim 29
41 kpt018 29
42 SMEAC 28
43 Space 28
44 Dr J 28
45 Possum Jenkins 27
46 HomerThompson 26
47 Mark hunts fist 26
48 Scott Parker 27 26
49 LiLoMMA 25
50 Cuzcatlan 23
51 Limbo Pete 22
52 AngryCrow 21
53 Daverisimo 21
54 Hitmandn 20
55 In The Name Of 19
56 CZMuayThai11 19
57 sickc0d3r 19
58 Strychnine 19
59 Gandhi 19
60 CEROVFC 19
61 Logicalinsanity 18
62 panamaican 18
63 Charles Manson 18
64 Sidjustice 18
65 BryanIam 18
66 Ruprecht 18
67 cleetus 17
68 King of Fists 15
69 Darkballs 13
70 Falsedawn 13
71 Overpressure 13
72 RhinoRush 12
73 @indrid 12
74 theBLADE1 8
75 Thames 2
76 Kbe6ekctah_ccp 2
77 Dizzy Daze 0
78 Silus_2000 0
79 Kill Kill 0
80 ShinkanPo 0
81 KnightTemplar 0

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Great work @Quipling

 

[K1levelgrappler]

Yeah good work @Quipling. It was well put together.

 

[HeLLMuTT]

Thanks for putting that together for all of us here @Quipling it put a bit of fun into the chaos of this election. I think I was one of the two that said Obama would not accept the election results and honestly I mis-marked that question. lol I think he has way more class for that. Which showed today when he met with DJT.

Thanks again!

 

[dissolved]

Good job @Quipling.

 

[tkotom]

TOP 3 fellas. Haha awesome stuff.

#TrumpTrain

 

[Hans Gruber]

TOP 3 fellas. Haha awesome stuff.

#TrumpTrain

Great job

1 MANIAC123 95
2 Hans Gruber 73
3 tkotom 69

#2 here

Congrats @MANIAC123

I wonder if I could have snuck into first if I wasn't a dumbass and didn't accidental put Trump by +300 electoral votes (I filled it out so fast I thought it meant "total electoral votes")

Thanks for the hard work @Quipling I won;t make you apologize to me for not listening to me about the polls and giving me a hard time (when I was right)

 

[Quipling]

Great job

1 MANIAC123 95
2 Hans Gruber 73
3 tkotom 69

#2 here

Congrats @MANIAC123

I wonder if I could have snuck into first if I wasn't a dumbass and didn't accidental put Trump by +300 electoral votes (I filled it out so fast I thought it meant "total electoral votes")

Thanks for the hard work @Quipling I won;t make you apologize to me for not listening to me about the polls and giving me a hard time (when I was right)

Nope. That would have gotten you to 78 points, still not nearly enough.

 

[Jin Akutsu]

#4, good to know I called this one pretty close.

Big thanks to @Quipling for the idea and updates!