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Im a huge Holloway fan so i was really upset when Volk won the title from him at UFC 245 and then robbed him at UFC 251 (though admittedly rewatching the fight, i scored it 3-2 to volk). However, since watching the way he systematically destroyed Ortega, and the subsequent insane performances he's put on since then in every fight, there's no denying in my mind that currently he is the current lb4lb best fighter in the world. He even made me converted me to a temp aussie by having the greatest walkout and fans in the UFC lb4lb.
There's also no denying that if he wins his next fight against Topuria, he surpasses Aldo easily to be the greatest FTW of all time and tbh, top 3 on the goat list (next to GSP and Jones). However, i just dont see it happening. dont get me wrong, stylistically and iq wise, volk is a better fighter and mixed martial artist than topuria right now but there are certain factors that lead me to believe Ilia will beat Volk and not only that, potentially finish him.
1) The UFC game curse. we know historically every fighter who has been on the UFC game cover has losses subsequently in their career. for context:
UFC 1: Jones ended up being stripped of his title shortly after the game release and DC 1 fight and Gus lost his next two fights to Rumble and DC
UFC 2: Rousey lost her next fight to holly holm and Amanda dunes and Conor lost his nextfight to Diaz
UFC 3: McGregor lost his next fight to Khabib and went 1-2 after.
UFC 4: Masvidal lost to Usman and went 0-3 after whereas Adesanya (whilst beating Costa) would then lose to Blachowicz in his bid for champ champ status.
Rumours are Volkanovski will be on the cover for UFC 5, and as we've seen, statistics are not on his side to retain his World title.
2) We've seen this before. 2019 was a weird year as it saw champs that many people at the time couldn't see being defeated (woodley, Whittaker and holloway) be overthrown by three more dominant more goat champs in Usman, Adesanya and Volk. These three pretty much over the course fo the next three years, established themselves as arguably the three best lb4lb fighters in the world, with Usman like Volk being a former no.1. However, in the case of Usman and Adesanya, both racked up 5 world title defences before losing their belts by 5th round finish to Edwards and Pereira (despite being 3-1 going into the fifth). Its almost as if the 6th title defense is their way of challenging the GOATS of their division (Silva and GSP) and the loss is almost a reminder that its impossible to touch the legacy of the GOATs. Volk just achieved his 5th title defense by beating El Pantera, and many believe he would surpass Aldo with a Topuria win for his 6th. Historically though, if we look at two former champs who won the belt in a similar timeframe, its appears highly unlikely, and if anything, there's a chance topuria to be losing the fight 3-1 but end up getting a shock finish in the 5th to win the 145lb belt.
3) Topuria had the perfect setup fight for this. Firstly, im not comparing Emmett to Volkanovski cos there is no comparison. Other than the fact that dimensionally, they are relatively similar, both 5'6, volk with a 71 inch reach emmet with a 70 inch. Even though stylistically Emmet is an average boxer while volk is an elite all round fighter, Ilia fighting that dimension of fighter and going 5 rounds comfortably will put him in good stead when facing a similar build in Volkanovski. There's no denying in my mind, Ilia will level up from the Emmett fight and prove a little too much for the older Volkanovski. speaking of age...
4) Age. I dont believe any fighter older than 35 has won a UFC title at 155lbs or under. The oldest from recollection was figuereido when he had the close fight with moreno in the trilogy at UFC 270 and was 34 when he recaptured the belt. Volks gonna be 35 when he fights Ilia and again statistics, dont seem to be on his side as fighters old than than 35 have never won a world title fighting at over 35 (look at Frankie at UFC 240 and Cejudo and TJ on their returns).
5) We've seen this before (again). the last fighter to step up from 145 to 155 for a world title (or an interim one) was Max. Max lost a close back and forth fight of the night to Dustin at 155 (sound familiar) then defended his title in July (sound familiar) and ironically lost the belt to Volk in december. Volk vs Topuria has supposedly been rumoured to be happening before the end of the year (maybe december), so again not saying history repeats itself, but....
Dont get me wrong, im not ruling out Volks chances completely as stylistically, he presents a different level of fighter than Ilia has faced previously. but just based on the reason above, my prediction is volk will be winning the fight 3-1 but in the fifth, ilia will drop volk and put him to sleep via sub.
thoughts sherbros?
There's also no denying that if he wins his next fight against Topuria, he surpasses Aldo easily to be the greatest FTW of all time and tbh, top 3 on the goat list (next to GSP and Jones). However, i just dont see it happening. dont get me wrong, stylistically and iq wise, volk is a better fighter and mixed martial artist than topuria right now but there are certain factors that lead me to believe Ilia will beat Volk and not only that, potentially finish him.
1) The UFC game curse. we know historically every fighter who has been on the UFC game cover has losses subsequently in their career. for context:
UFC 1: Jones ended up being stripped of his title shortly after the game release and DC 1 fight and Gus lost his next two fights to Rumble and DC
UFC 2: Rousey lost her next fight to holly holm and Amanda dunes and Conor lost his nextfight to Diaz
UFC 3: McGregor lost his next fight to Khabib and went 1-2 after.
UFC 4: Masvidal lost to Usman and went 0-3 after whereas Adesanya (whilst beating Costa) would then lose to Blachowicz in his bid for champ champ status.
Rumours are Volkanovski will be on the cover for UFC 5, and as we've seen, statistics are not on his side to retain his World title.
2) We've seen this before. 2019 was a weird year as it saw champs that many people at the time couldn't see being defeated (woodley, Whittaker and holloway) be overthrown by three more dominant more goat champs in Usman, Adesanya and Volk. These three pretty much over the course fo the next three years, established themselves as arguably the three best lb4lb fighters in the world, with Usman like Volk being a former no.1. However, in the case of Usman and Adesanya, both racked up 5 world title defences before losing their belts by 5th round finish to Edwards and Pereira (despite being 3-1 going into the fifth). Its almost as if the 6th title defense is their way of challenging the GOATS of their division (Silva and GSP) and the loss is almost a reminder that its impossible to touch the legacy of the GOATs. Volk just achieved his 5th title defense by beating El Pantera, and many believe he would surpass Aldo with a Topuria win for his 6th. Historically though, if we look at two former champs who won the belt in a similar timeframe, its appears highly unlikely, and if anything, there's a chance topuria to be losing the fight 3-1 but end up getting a shock finish in the 5th to win the 145lb belt.
3) Topuria had the perfect setup fight for this. Firstly, im not comparing Emmett to Volkanovski cos there is no comparison. Other than the fact that dimensionally, they are relatively similar, both 5'6, volk with a 71 inch reach emmet with a 70 inch. Even though stylistically Emmet is an average boxer while volk is an elite all round fighter, Ilia fighting that dimension of fighter and going 5 rounds comfortably will put him in good stead when facing a similar build in Volkanovski. There's no denying in my mind, Ilia will level up from the Emmett fight and prove a little too much for the older Volkanovski. speaking of age...
4) Age. I dont believe any fighter older than 35 has won a UFC title at 155lbs or under. The oldest from recollection was figuereido when he had the close fight with moreno in the trilogy at UFC 270 and was 34 when he recaptured the belt. Volks gonna be 35 when he fights Ilia and again statistics, dont seem to be on his side as fighters old than than 35 have never won a world title fighting at over 35 (look at Frankie at UFC 240 and Cejudo and TJ on their returns).
5) We've seen this before (again). the last fighter to step up from 145 to 155 for a world title (or an interim one) was Max. Max lost a close back and forth fight of the night to Dustin at 155 (sound familiar) then defended his title in July (sound familiar) and ironically lost the belt to Volk in december. Volk vs Topuria has supposedly been rumoured to be happening before the end of the year (maybe december), so again not saying history repeats itself, but....
Dont get me wrong, im not ruling out Volks chances completely as stylistically, he presents a different level of fighter than Ilia has faced previously. but just based on the reason above, my prediction is volk will be winning the fight 3-1 but in the fifth, ilia will drop volk and put him to sleep via sub.
thoughts sherbros?
