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Valentina's Title Reign Will End On Saturday

Striker Fox said:
She didn't get up because......
shevchenko-pena.gif


Also, is this the same Santos lady getting taken down and controlled against the cage?

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That was her in UFC debut, a split decision loss that she arguably won, and it occurred because she took the back of her opponent standing and burned out her legs. She also came back in that fight during the third round and her opponent was a fighter very good at taking opponents down and controlling them. I would categorize it as an atypical performance uncharacteristic of how she usually performs.
 
Substance Abuse said:
Anything is possible.

This is highly unlikely.

Where's the betting slip?
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I never advocated betting on Santos I said NOT to bet on Valentina.

I will though definitely be betting on Santos by DEC but am waiting for her betting line to to rise as more casual money comes in towards the end of the week.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Taila Santos is going to take Valentina down during the first three rounds, control her, and bank those three rounds. The last two times Valentina was taken down (Maia & Pena) she did not get up. There is no reason to expect her to get back to her feet against a fighter with heavier top pressure and who she knows will be looking to take her back in a scramble.

On the feet Santos presents a greater power threat than any opponent Valentina has faced since Amanda Nunes. Valentina is one of the best technical strikers in the UFC so a finish is unlikely to materialize there. She will though need to respect the power of an opponent with 3 knockdowns in their last two fights and ten career knockouts. Valentina is normally able to strike with impunity as her opponents possess far inferior technical skills and lack the ability to finish her. Josiane Nunes (BW), with arguably the heaviest hands of any woman in the UFC, was forced to respect the power of Santos in what was the only loss of her career.

Valentina has almost exclusively been fighting technical strikers whose skills were inferior everywhere, posed no TD threat, and who lacked the ability to finish her. On Saturday she will instead be fighting the first opponent since Amanda Nunes with a size advantage, grappling advantage, and the ability to finish her anywhere. Santos will slow down towards the end of the fight and lose the last two rounds but will still win 48-47 comfortably.

This will be nothing like Julianna Pena beating Amanda Nunes as it has been a long time coming and easy to see coming from a mile away. Don't throw away your money on Valentina thinking she is a lock to win, she is absolutely not, and those who light their money on fire betting on her will be losing alot. Expect tears from her aggressively creepy fanboys.
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<Oku02>
 
Shay Brennan said:
No way.
When decorated strikers like Joanna and much bigger Holly couldn't do nothing against Valentina on the feet, there is no reason to believeTaila can.
Valentina fought a much harder hitter in Nunes who couldn't do nothing with that power in two fights and Valentina outstruck her in terms of head strikes in both fights.

Also. Val has taken down everyone she's ever fought in the UFC including much bigger Nunes and Holm. Again there is no reason to believe she can't do that to Taila.
One of the best anti wrestlers in wmma history in Joanna was taken down multiple times.
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I never said Santos was going to cause Shevchenko any trouble on the feet. Valentina will though respect the power of Taila Santos and strike more conservatively due to the power coming back at her.

Santos's path to victory is taking Valentina down during the first three rounds, controlling her, and putting Valentina in a situation where she needs a finish to win heading into the championship rounds; where Santos will slow down due to average cardio and inexperience.

Valentina has not been fighting opponents that presented a credible TD threat. She has been fighting technical strikers with inferior skills anywhere the fight went. All of the similarly elite opponents Valentina has fought at FLW (Joanna, Andrade) were SWs coming up a division not natural BWs that are fighting down a division. Santos should have an appreciable strength advantage over Valentina which will allow her to control Valentina once she grounds her.
 
Possible but highly unlikely.

Unless Valentina suffers a horrific weight cut or other serious injury and foolishly decides to fight anyway I just don't see it.

Valentina hasn't fallen off athletically and her style and athleticism has kept her out of taking damage throughout her career despite the amount of fights she has had. Joanna and Weili individually most likely suffered more damage in their first fight than Valentina has in her entire career. So again unlikely.

Maybe once Valentina starts showing degradation the way Holly has or she starts turning in title defenses where she accumulates damage the way Joanna had then eventually someone really good will put her down.
 
Val did get up when Pena took her down, she got up, Pena took her down again, then she subbed Pena. Note that was Valentina fighting at 135, not 125.

As for Maia, she kept Val down for 1 round. She did no damage and lost every other round of that fight. Valentina took Maia down 5 times, 5/6 attempts. Val won 49 - 46 on all scorecards. Not sure why this is meant to demonstrate a weakness of Val.
 
Nah.

Taila is good, but ordinary good.

Shevchenko is extraordinarily good.

This is more like Anderson Silva Vs Travis Lutter. Lutter was a good wrestler, great grappler, stronger than Anderson... A theoretical nightmare, until you remember the levels.

Valentina will outclass Taila.
 
I actually give Santos a decent chance here, but you're giving Santos a bit too much credit here lol.

UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Taila Santos is going to take Valentina down during the first three rounds, control her, and bank those three rounds. The last two times Valentina was taken down (Maia & Pena) she did not get up. There is no reason to expect her to get back to her feet against a fighter with heavier top pressure and who she knows will be looking to take her back in a scramble.
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She's a top heavy grappler for sure, but Talia isn't some takedown specialist. Most BJJ fighters aren't. It would different if Valentina was likely to stand in front of her, but that isn't going to happen. Val will be constantly moving around. The tds aren't going to be easy at all for Santos.

As for Val against Maia and Pena, well, Maia has always been strong on top, but keep in mind she only did that for one round. Valentina adjusted perfectly and then spent almost the rest of the fight doing the exact same shit back to Maia with Maia having no more success.

And Pena was beating Val, despite what people seem to remember about that fight, but Pena has far better tds than Santos, and she's bigger and stronger. Their grappling styles aren't at all the same.

UFCIsNOTRigged said:
On the feet Santos presents a greater power threat than any opponent Valentina has faced since Amanda Nunes. Valentina is one of the best technical strikers in the UFC so a finish is unlikely to materialize there. She will though need to respect the power of an opponent with 3 knockdowns in their last two fights and ten career knockouts. Valentina is normally able to strike with impunity as her opponents possess far inferior technical skills and lack the ability to finish her. Josiane Nunes (BW), with arguably the heaviest hands of any woman in the UFC, was forced to respect the power of Santos in what was the only loss of her career.
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Santos knocking down Roxy, Joanne, and Gillian doesn't say much at all. Gillian is awful on the feet and weak. Joanne is also. All three of those girls aren't great strikers at all. She isn't going to be able to just put Val in the same spots as she did them to get kds.

And did Josi really have to respect the power of Santos? Or were they both just green fighters at that point in their careers and Santos was able to just control her on the ground? Haven't seen the fight as it was impossible to find footage when I had to research Josi for betting, but I'm guessing she just outgrappled her. Josi's grappling isn't great now, so there's no reason why it would have been better 9 years ago.

I bet on MMA for a living, and you should do some basic research on Santos before giving the 10 career KOs much respect. The last time she KOd someone was back in 2016, and it was against a girl who is 0-10 and has been KOd 6 times. If you look further into Santos' KO stats, you'll see that you actually have to go back quite a bit to find one of those KO victims who have actually won a single fight.

Her last 6 KOs came against girls who have a current combined record of . . . 0-25.

All in all, I don't mind your read on this though. I just don't think Santos is going to be as effective as you do. Not enough for me to gamble anything big on anyway.

The cardio is the real issue for me. Santos slows by round 3 quite a bit and she's never fought 5 rounds. She's also never fought anyone remotely as good in any area as Valentina is.

Personally, I hope she pulls it off though. She really has to fucking go for it. Not get blinded by the lights and the feints like so many other girls have against Val at FLW. Needs to just go forward and fight, and hopefully bag those first three rounds like you said or catch Val and hurt her. A club and sub finish would be amazing.
 
I'll still back Val but thanks for the insights!

<RomeroSalute>
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Taila Santos is going to take Valentina down during the first three rounds, control her, and bank those three rounds. The last two times Valentina was taken down (Maia & Pena) she did not get up. There is no reason to expect her to get back to her feet against a fighter with heavier top pressure and who she knows will be looking to take her back in a scramble.

On the feet Santos presents a greater power threat than any opponent Valentina has faced since Amanda Nunes. Valentina is one of the best technical strikers in the UFC so a finish is unlikely to materialize there. She will though need to respect the power of an opponent with 3 knockdowns in their last two fights and ten career knockouts. Valentina is normally able to strike with impunity as her opponents possess far inferior technical skills and lack the ability to finish her. Josiane Nunes (BW), with arguably the heaviest hands of any woman in the UFC, was forced to respect the power of Santos in what was the only loss of her career.

Valentina has almost exclusively been fighting technical strikers whose skills were inferior everywhere, posed no TD threat, and who lacked the ability to finish her. On Saturday she will instead be fighting the first opponent since Amanda Nunes with a size advantage, grappling advantage, and the ability to finish her anywhere. Santos will slow down towards the end of the fight and lose the last two rounds but will still win 48-47 comfortably.

This will be nothing like Julianna Pena beating Amanda Nunes as it has been a long time coming and easy to see coming from a mile away. Don't throw away your money on Valentina thinking she is a lock to win, she is absolutely not, and those who light their money on fire betting on her will be losing alot.
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well at least you didn't use the classic "Mark my words!".
 
It’s a crazy sport. But Shevchenko is the best technical female fighter on the planet. And no girl at 125 has yet to be a serious challenge.

Id love to see a new champ to shake things up. That’s what makes SW so much fun. But I don’t see it happening.
 
Santos is far too slow to be competitive on the feet with Valentina. I'll be sure to revisit this thread after Valentina completely dismantles Santos. I wonder if TS will be as thorough in his retraction, or if he'll just whimper away.
 
Never seen Talia fight but I know val well. She isn't losing to any 125er.
 
Maybe. I'm getting that gut feeling like I did before Pena/Nunes and Ronda/Holly, but it's MMA and a gut feeling isn't much to bet on.
 
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