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Hooker?
I think Tony beats Dan, but I’d agree thats about it. It’s even a stretch to see him beating Felder after last nights performance.
Certainly possible, but even then I don't know that I'd favor him. Dan fought a competitive fight with Dustin in which Poirier had to lean heavily on the championship rounds, his durability, and offensive grappling. Hooker can match Ferguson's reach and Tony is... meh as an offensive wrestler.
If Tony came out looking fairly sharp like he did against RDA or even in the very early stages of the Justin bout, investing in the body early and showing a willingness to wrestle... maybe, yeah, I could see it. But unless Dan was badly compromised by that last knockout I think I'd actually still favor him and I've never rated the Hangman as elite. The flashes of standup we've seen from Tony in his last few fights just don't give me much hope against a long, aggressive, fairly technical striker like Dan who should be able to do enough in the first two rounds while surviving the third.