UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

[robbiedawg]

LOL that's not gonna happen. +130 more likely than +200 imo. I just took him now at +165, can't risk it getting any worse. Waiting on his dec line but probably won't be much better than the ML I'd guess...

I'm cool with passing if he stays under +180

 

[Oblivian]

Don't agree. We've been on the same side for a lot recently, but I think you are off here.

 

[robbiedawg]

Don't agree. We've been on the same side for a lot recently, but I think you are off here.

Note I haven't studied tape yet, but I've never rated Leites' striking or clinch game. I will be studying tape tomorrow.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ishihara is probably my favorite fighter

 

[Oblivian]

Leites has such a clear edge on the ground. Everywhere else, you can make an argument for being equal at the very best. I'd definitely contend that Leites has a power edge though. So where is Camozzi's clearest route to victory? Do not get caught standing, and do not go to the ground.

 

[robbiedawg]

What does Leites do on the feet to Camozzi? Camozzi is rangey, has a decent jab and straight and stays busy. Get on the inside and knock him out? Extremely unlikely, Camozzi has a granite chin and Leites doesn't have that much power. I just can't see Leites getting on the inside without getting tagged repeatedly, and he's never set up takedowns well with his striking. If Camozzi keeps this standing, he will win unless he somehow gets knocked out for the first time in his career off a guy who's only really good on the ground.

 

[Oblivian]

Camozzi is extremely hitable, and he isn't that great offensively either. He's a neutralizer who excels at exploiting a weakness. Is Leites great standing? Absolutely not, but he's serviceable and has shown power. Put it this way, I think you are nuts if you think Camozzi cruises here or would hit a -3.5 handicap. His best route to victory is likely a close decision or a 29-28 whereas Leites can finish or has an equally likelihood to a close decision.

 

[robbiedawg]

I wouldn't even take Leites at evens (maybe in Brazil) because I think the fight stays standing. Then I think it's a case of who's more durable, more active and lands more strikes and that's Camozzi all day, thus making a bet on him good value. He isn't getting knocked out by Leites, and Camozzi is just 29 and on the upswing whereas Leites has looked old in his recent fights and is definitely on the downswing (USADA or age).

 

[iGnP]

I think I agree w/ O here. I'm not putting too much stock in Camozzi's recent wins. If i bet the fight, Im gonna bet Leites by Sub small

 

[AxeMurderer]

i'm going big on camozzi, no fucks given.

I am with you 100%. Gonna hit him hard. I don't think Leites takes him down, Camozzi has the advantage standing. Also I think Leites gets frustrated when he can't get the fight to the ground. that along with Camozzi looking great lately and Leites fading makes me think this is a great value.

 

[robbiedawg]

I think I agree w/ O here. I'm not putting too much stock in Camozzi's recent wins. If i bet the fight, Im gonna bet Leites by Sub small

What Leites wins do you put stock in?

 

[iGnP]

What Leites wins do you put stock in?

Hey Leites has been in there against much stiffer competition than Camozzi. Other than the fights against Jacare, this is prob Camozzi's most difficult fight (maybe you can argue Larkin, but still). Leites has the clearest advantage in the fight, which is if the fight hits the ground (as O said). I don't endorse a straight up play on Leites but id be shocked if Camozzi dominated Leites here. Beating paper mache Joe Riggs and an overhyped Miranda isnt enough for me to feel confident in a bet on Camozzi, let alone going big on him

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I'm on the camozzi train

Bigger younger, more likely to be evolving and learning...

Camozzi better cardio.

Great value
Prolly gonna parlay him with yair and be done with it

 

[robbiedawg]

Hey Leites has been in there against much stiffer competition than Camozzi. Other than the fights against Jacare, this is prob Camozzi's most difficult fight (maybe you can argue Larkin, but still). Leites has the clearest advantage in the fight, which is if the fight hits the ground (as O said). I don't endorse a straight up play on Leites but id be shocked if Camozzi dominated Leites here. Beating paper mache Joe Riggs and an overhyped Miranda isnt enough for me to feel confident in a bet on Camozzi, let alone going big on him

Who they've been in there with doesn't mean anything unless they're a prospect, it's who they've beat. As I said I think it stays standing and that's why Camozzi has value, so I'm looking past the ground advantage.

 

[weedreference]

I'm on Camozzi, but not big. If you look at his record he has done way better against strikers than grapplers. I would be very surprised if he doesn't win the striking. He's an underrated boxer. But he'll be in big trouble if it hits the floor.

 

[RyuDave]

Prob on a Bermudez Cummings double team.
Poss Cummings and Cammozi Dec double too.

 

[Dooze]

I'd take Camozzi as a decent size underdog but if this gets anywhere near to a pick em I'll be on Leites. Camozzi has better straights/kicks but Leites does have power himself even if his striking isn't the most technical. He's lost his last 2 (SD to the champ - still weird saying that) and a decision to Moose who looks great. I expect he'll be looking to close the distance and clinch with Camozzi and get him down there, if it hits the mat its Leites world.

I don't see either KOing the other, both can take a shot and neither are known for the KO power. Camozzi won't sub Leites either, he pretty much has to avoid the clinch/ground and fight a perfect fight to win a decision outside of him getting a rare KO over Leites. He could do it but at the same time I think Leites could deffo sub Camozzi if it gets there, or just dominate him on the ground for a decision or if he can't get it there, keep it somewhat close on the feet and get the better of Camozzi in the clinch to win rounds.

Camozzi has looked better of late no doubt but at the same time it's a big step up in competition for him.

 

[Sham5916910]

This may not mean much as i havent had time to watch tape and just one fight can really skew these figures but leites td success only 27%. Camozzi td defence 63%.

 

[MMAJay]

Im on Camozzi ML before it drops, and will probably add a bit to his dec line if it's about 100 points bigger than now.

 

[oliverinsix]

Source: http://mmajunkie.com/2016/05/no-lon...skey-and-low-key-bars-between-trips-to-narnia

Interview from May 2016 with Rony Jason. He talks about using the time off from his suspension to tone things down and get closer to his family. Maintains a lifestyle of drinking and admittedly talks about having issues cheating on his diet. Sounds like Jason's another fighter that likes to eat and it doesn't sound like improving has been a central focus to him during the time off.