UFN 87 - Netherlands - AA vs Reem

[Roads55]

I'd definitely strongly consider it with a 50k br.

Gutted i didn't pull the trigger on Hall @ +250.

Almost as good as the glover/tumenov lines I reckon. Could see lines around even by fight time, but hard to be sure with the potential money from casuals on silva.
a 41 year old guy vs hall who tko'd iron jawed moose, the biggest question mark in my mind is if hall can push the pace and not be gunshy, but I thought he looked good vs Whitaker, and he does seem a bit more consistent than he used to be. big oppurtunity to make a name for himself too.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I put a few YOLO bets (between 50% and all-in).
Those are the times when my BR jumps to the next level (since opening my account a little less than a year ago it has growth 10x). Well... those and the times I hit a +1000 parlay or something.

But you have to be careful and not too greedy. But dont have to play conservative.

I remember going full YOLO at Mayweather-Pacquiao, Frankie-Faber, Hunt-Bigfoot 2, Mighty Mouse-Cejudo. There was just not way in my mind that those guys were losing and they won rather easily.

Sometimes I see guy betting 0.x unit where 1 unit is 1% of their BR. A small bet for me is 2%, and a normal 5/6%.

There is a balance between playing safe and being ballsy... betting or value and betting on winners.

Regarding Overeem.. I think the value is right at -200 but I hate that bet if you are going big. HW fights with chinny guys are unpredictable. AA is a heavy hitter and Reem could be winning that fight and getting catched.

Usually when I go big on a guy is because I think the chances of him being finished are slim to none (see above.. Floyd, Hunt, Frankie, DJ...).

Those are my 2 cents... and is based only in my personal experience.

Good logic here

 

[RyuDave]

Hate to be that guy but what does YOLO mean?!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hate to be that guy but what does YOLO mean?!

you only live once

 

[RyuDave]

Oh lol

 

[piglord]

Just to add and moreso for Piglord i know how tempting it is to bet big i feel ya dude. I started doing 1k bets too early in hindsight as when i started 1k was 12.5% of my br. I got really lucky and won on 8 straight events but i definitely went too big too quick. i'd at least wait on 1k bets until 1k is 10% of your br. i got greedy when i first started making 1k bets but before that i was very disciplined. my first two years of betting consisted of betting £40 per show and then £60 once i'd built a small br. I then jumped to £250, built my br further then jumped to £500. From £500 I went to 1k. I'd definitely recommend a building process. What would happen Piglord if you lost three straight events therefore 3k?

man over the past year i probably have technically built up a br of 1-2k. but because my br and income are the same i am never able to actually build anything. i'm always withdrawing cash to live.

last month i got a cheque for some freelance work for about £1400, which is on top of what i normally earn. i figure i can just freeroll with £1k and see what happens.

if it loses it just means i'm back to wagering £200 a show which is no big deal to me.

 

[Sham5916910]

man over the past year i probably have technically built up a br of 1-2k. but because my br and income are the same i am never able to actually build anything. i'm always withdrawing cash to live.

last month i got a cheque for some freelance work for about £1400, which is on top of what i normally earn. i figure i can just freeroll with £1k and see what happens.

if it loses it just means i'm back to wagering £200 a show which is no big deal to me.

Lets make sure you hit that first 1k wager then!

 

[Ukram]

So nikita krylov has 99% all r1 finishes usually via ko but usually sub, never gone to decision while his opponent barrosa gone to 4 decisions since coming to ufc and been decisioning for past 3 years.

Krylov finish in r1, or sub/ko line, hedged by barrosa decision play ?

 

[piglord]

Lets make sure you hit that first 1k wager then!

haha you already know what double i'm playing so long as the lines aren't wacky!

 

[Joseph Budden]

So nikita krylov has 99% all r1 finishes usually via ko but usually sub, never gone to decision while his opponent barrosa gone to 4 decisions since coming to ufc and been decisioning for past 3 years.

Krylov finish in r1, or sub/ko line, hedged by barrosa decision play ?

Nice stat work. Was planning on playing Barroso dec, will pair it with Krylov rd1 now

 

[Sham5916910]

haha you already know what double i'm playing so long as the lines aren't wacky!

Me too!

 

[Ukram]

Yup Krylov r1...... maybe check that sub r1 line but the r1 play is safer, barroso dec sounds more likely.

I think it was ez discussing how he likes wade here, just checked some tape of both guys recent fights its a hard fight to predict but fair point about wade, his hip tosses and trips in clinches and general grappling and wrestling is pretty good and I noticed rustam can get taken down at times also but even rustam is a decent grappler and has heavy counters.

I think wade looks the more younger and faster fighter coming in even if he is only 1 year younger but just less fights and damage then rustam has, think the overs hit on this one but will look at wade decision props when they come out, reminds me if a split decision prop is available this fight looks it.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Yup Krylov r1...... maybe check that sub r1 line but the r1 play is safer, barroso dec sounds more likely.

I think it was ez discussing how he likes wade here, just checked some tape of both guys recent fights its a hard fight to predict but fair point about wade, his hip tosses and trips in clinches and general grappling and wrestling is pretty good and I noticed rustam can get taken down at times also but even rustam is a decent grappler and has heavy counters.

I think wade looks the more younger and faster fighter coming in even if he is only 1 year younger but just less fights and damage then rustam has, think the overs hit on this one but will look at wade decision props when they come out, reminds me if a split decision prop is available this fight looks it.

Good point about the SD-prop. This fight screams SD.

 

[EzFlyer]

I agree wade khabilov could be a close decision

Laying the juice on the over and taking the dog , value in both for me

 

[Agent Mulder]

I agree wade khabilov could be a close decision

Laying the juice on the over and taking the dog , value in both for me

Agreed about the over and dog. I have 2.5u on the over. Waiting for a better price on Wade.

 

[Card]

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Agreed about the over and dog. I have 2.5u on the over. Waiting for a better price on Wade.

I agree wade khabilov could be a close decision

Laying the juice on the over and taking the dog , value in both for me

I agree with both of you.

Rustam/Wade over 2.5 looks good and not that juicy. I parlayed it with Tumenov-Nelson over 2.5 at +odds.


BTW... I liked Silva/Struve over 1.5 at +140.

Bigfoot is kind of shot but Struve does not have much power. Both guys are patient in the cage and I hope a conservative version of both now that they are coming from bad streaks.

MMAth does not work much but Struve has been over 1.5 in 4 of his last 5.

 

[susanto]

Who is the biggest and the most successful punter on sherdog ?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Who is the biggest and the most successful punter on sherdog ?

barrygood1

 

[PuertoRican]

He's like 5'11, doubt it's 125

"On May 8, the UFC will travel to Rotterdam for its first show in the Netherlands, and while there are no fights in the Octagon this weekend, there are plenty of updates for upcoming shows, starting with UFC Fight Night next Sunday, where the retirement of Paddy Holohan has allowed Japan's Ulka Sasaki to step in and face Willie Gates in a flyweight bout." (posted on April 29, 2016)

On a side note, Leonardo Santos is out of his fight against Evan Dunham at UFC 199; James Vick stepped up and will fight Dunham on that same card.

http://www.ufc.com/news/Friday-Fight-Update-043016