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UFN 87 - Netherlands - AA vs Reem

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Ballsaque said:
Ofcourse it does. They opened Pennington / Correria at -265/+185, after everyone on here was raving about how much they wanted Pennington at a good price. -265/+185 in a WMMA fight which by all accounts was going to be fairly close, just due to the style matchup is insane, and did get bet down accordingly. There's no way online opinion didn't put that line where it is. Discussion future fights openly only damages your own profit margins.

Lines are set according to what the line maker thinks the people will bet them at, not what the actual fight odds should be.

There should be a private forum or some such for that type of discussion.
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A Euro bookie opened the Pennington line way before any other bookie at -125. They subsequently pulled the line and I think they reopened it at -200 in line with everyone else.

Seriously guys lets not talk about fights for this upcoming card until the lines are out.
 
The lines are out on a couple of UK sites. Some very appealing options.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Imho you should separate life roll and gambling roll. Very very few people make consistent large amounts of cash betting.

Even great cappers have massive variance.

Not saying you cant win just be smart. Separating life roll makes gambling more fun too.
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Agree, keep it separate and for fun its when it stops becoming fun the trouble starts !

I started regularly taking BR out monthly, been playing it relative safe with live betting and trying to not chase (so much!) ie would rather wait for other fights on a card 2 weeks later, so far its been good :)
 
On the front of the Evening Standard (free London paper) y'day was an article about a fella who committed suicide due to gambling debt from online betting.

I definitely agree about separating br from wages. I'd never bet my monthly income. Piglord can't you build your br for a few months so you can separate it from from your monthly income?
 
Joseph Budden said:
lol I here you man. Playing it smart has been going amazing for me, but I look at a line that I love like -225 for Reem and just think to myself how if I would just risk a grand, which is about 35% of the bankroll i've built up, I can get this train rolling faster.

To be smart or to be ballsy. Hard to find the right balance sometimes.
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I put a few YOLO bets (between 50% and all-in).
Those are the times when my BR jumps to the next level (since opening my account a little less than a year ago it has growth 10x). Well... those and the times I hit a +1000 parlay or something.

But you have to be careful and not too greedy. But dont have to play conservative.

I remember going full YOLO at Mayweather-Pacquiao, Frankie-Faber, Hunt-Bigfoot 2, Mighty Mouse-Cejudo. There was just not way in my mind that those guys were losing and they won rather easily.

Sometimes I see guy betting 0.x unit where 1 unit is 1% of their BR. A small bet for me is 2%, and a normal 5/6%.

There is a balance between playing safe and being ballsy... betting or value and betting on winners.

Regarding Overeem.. I think the value is right at -200 but I hate that bet if you are going big. HW fights with chinny guys are unpredictable. AA is a heavy hitter and Reem could be winning that fight and getting catched.

Usually when I go big on a guy is because I think the chances of him being finished are slim to none (see above.. Floyd, Hunt, Frankie, DJ...).

Those are my 2 cents... and is based only in my personal experience.
 
Sham5916910 said:
On the front of the Evening Standard (free London paper) y'day was an article about a fella who committed suicide due to gambling debt from online betting.

I definitely agree about separating br from wages. I'd never bet my monthly income. Piglord can't you build your br for a few months so you can separate it from from your monthly income?
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That sounds like a good advice.

Regarding BR managment there is a good debate I may missed (because Im fairly new)... if you have some link to a past thread or something you are welcome. Im really interested in how you guys do it.
 
piglord said:
i'm going to have to start taking risks from now on. winning a few hundred on fight night is nice but it doesn't make any meaningful impact in my life. i'm going to have to start wagering 1k+ each fight night. a few good wins and i have enough money to rent an apartment for 6 months which will completely transform my life from eviscerating hell to peace.

i'm out for blood from here on out.
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Sham5916910 said:
On the front of the Evening Standard (free London paper) y'day was an article about a fella who committed suicide due to gambling debt from online betting.

I definitely agree about separating br from wages. I'd never bet my monthly income.

Piglord can't you build your br for a few months so you can separate it from from your monthly income?
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Yeah agree best to build it up a bit even if its 2-3k for now and just enjoy sports betting off that, would rather do that then trying to aim to hit an immediate 1K per card, why not try and aim for 1K over 3-4 ufc events in the month ?

1K is still more then most guys monthly wage and if you do hit 1K you could take it up a notch.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
I put a few YOLO bets (between 50% and all-in).
Those are the times when my BR jumps to the next level (since opening my account a little less than a year ago it has growth 10x). Well... those and the times I hit a +1000 parlay or something.

But you have to be careful and not too greedy. But dont have to play conservative.

I remember going full YOLO at Mayweather-Pacquiao, Frankie-Faber, Hunt-Bigfoot 2, Mighty Mouse-Cejudo. There was just not way in my mind that those guys were losing and they won rather easily.

Sometimes I see guy betting 0.x unit where 1 unit is 1% of their BR. A small bet for me is 2%, and a normal 5/6%.

There is a balance between playing safe and being ballsy... betting or value and betting on winners.

Regarding Overeem.. I think the value is right at -200 but I hate that bet if you are going big. HW fights with chinny guys are unpredictable. AA is a heavy hitter and Reem could be winning that fight and getting catched.

Usually when I go big on a guy is because I think the chances of him being finished are slim to none (see above.. Floyd, Hunt, Frankie, DJ...).

Those are my 2 cents... and is based only in my personal experience.
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Whats crazy is by the standards of the regulars with bigger bankrolls i'm already going yolo lol I risked 230 on Ponz when my gambling roll was at 2500. Think that would be like 9u.

I really fucked up by not going YOLO on Jones/Whit/DJ at evens. I saw no way those guys were losing.

I think its highly likely Reem smokes him, and if the day is going well it could be my biggest risk ever, but yeah AA does only need one right hand to fuck me up. We'll see.

Such a mindfuck to think about. It took me from August til now to go from 130 to 2800 and if I went yolo and got fucked, I can't imagine how hard i'd be kicking myself. But I fiend for those bigger profits.
 
Just to add and moreso for Piglord i know how tempting it is to bet big i feel ya dude. I started doing 1k bets too early in hindsight as when i started 1k was 12.5% of my br. I got really lucky and won on 8 straight events but i definitely went too big too quick. i'd at least wait on 1k bets until 1k is 10% of your br. i got greedy when i first started making 1k bets but before that i was very disciplined. my first two years of betting consisted of betting £40 per show and then £60 once i'd built a small br. I then jumped to £250, built my br further then jumped to £500. From £500 I went to 1k. I'd definitely recommend a building process. What would happen Piglord if you lost three straight events therefore 3k?
 
Joseph Budden said:
Whats crazy is by the standards of the regulars with bigger bankrolls i'm already going yolo lol I risked 230 on Ponz when my gambling roll was at 2500. Think that would be like 9u.

I really fucked up by not going YOLO on Jones/Whit/DJ at evens. I saw no way those guys were losing.

I think its highly likely Reem smokes him, and if the day is going well it could be my biggest risk ever, but yeah AA does only need one right hand to fuck me up. We'll see.

Such a mindfuck to think about. It took me from August til now to go from 130 to 2800 and if I went yolo and got fucked, I can't imagine how hard i'd be kicking myself. But I fiend for those bigger profits.
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Wait.. you call YOLO at a 9% bet? That is like a medium bet for me.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Wait.. you call YOLO at a 9% bet? That is like a medium bet for me.
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Well, relative to my bankroll. When Rose fought PVZ I think I had 400 in my account and had about 125 on Rose lol

I might have to up my risk on plays i'm really confident in now that my BR has grown though. More times than not the fights I feel I have a really good read on play out as winners for me
 
From the UG: http://forum.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=forum_framed.posts&forum=1&thread=2555923&page=1&pc=7

Albert "Einstein" Tumenov - Height: 5'9 - Reach: 73 inches Record: 17-2-0 Stance: Orthodox

Notes:
Positives Negatives
Russian hand to hand champ/master of sport of boxing. / Sometimes eats a shot coming forward.
Good left counter hook. / Doesn't check many leg kicks.
Closes distance quickly. / Not alot of dodging strikes.
Good Combinations, kicks come behind punches. / Relatively untested when it comes to takedowns.
Momentum - On a 5 fight winning streak. / Last win was by split decision.
Aggressive, pushes the fight.
Can take a punch.
Great cardio for 3 round fights
Makes adjustments late in the fight.
Fight Odds: -175

Gunnar "Gunni" Nelson(left) - Height: 5'9 - Reach: 72 inches Record: 14-2-1 Stance: Switches

Notes:
Positives Negatives
Dangerous ground game. / Coming off a loss.
Trains with Conor Mcgregor. / Front leg open to leg kicks.
Takes knockdown opportunities / Hands go down when getting tired
Quick hands/Blitz attacks / Chin high when coming forward
Hard body kicks / Movement slows down in 3rd round
Good at keeping the distance / Needs distance to land power strikes
Great top control
Fight Odds: +145

It's a tough match up to bet on, it could go any way. Gunnar has the power in his hands to knock out Tumenov. But I give Albert the striking advantage. The biggest question of the fight is - Can Tumenov defend the takedown? I think if he does he will win the decision. Tumenov can also win by knock out or TKO. The only way I see Gunni being successful in this fight is if he can land the takedown in multiple rounds.

Gunnar Nelson has shown agressive takedowns and dangerous ground game in the past but many of his opponents were able to defend his shot. Even Thatch who was submited was knocked down with a Blitz of punches. Being close to Conor's situation, I theorize they are working more on defense than takedown agression. Especially with how Gunni lost his last fight.

Albert Tumenov has been in there with some great strikers and hard hitters. He is very hard to knockdown from punches. He has shown he can take a punch, although sometimes he can take to many. So far he has been a bit untested when it comes to high level grapplers. But what we have seen he is great at defending takedowns.

This isn't a safe bet by any means, but the fighter I am going to add to my parlay for this event would be Albert Tumenov. He isn't so far the favorite that it hurts your parlay. I think he has a great chance of winning. If I had to guess how, I would say by decision.
 
^^^Solid breakdown. 100% agree the biggest question is can Gunnar take Einstein down
 
I would also think that without the gradual growth you'd be more likely to allow your wagers to be adversely impacted by your nervousness at a sudden, drastic rise in amount. If I, being used to $25 wagers, suddenly boosted that to $250, I honestly don't think I'd be able to play the same. I would probably veer to being conservative and probably miss out on value that I'd normally see with my 'normal' maximums. The gradual growth, I assume, would help remove this self-doubt.
 
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