UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[Gugabe]

You're right according to the Fightmetric stats, Moicano isn't on any of there striking rankings while Volkanovski is top 10 for strikes landed a minute, accuracy and differential. They've certainly manipulated the data a certain way to get guys like Siver, Moicano and Bektic there but be missing fighters like Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Cyborg.

Also noticed Thiago Alves has the 5th most knockdowns in UFC history joint with JDS. I'll take that as a confidence increase on him.

Yeah. Volkanovski's had a bunch of one-sided GnP shitkickings over scrubs which usually gets a ton of differential accrued.

 

[longway]

Jairzinho @ 4/5 is criminal.
May be one of my biggest bets ever.

75/6 kickboxing rec with multiple titles.
He’s going to wipe the floor with Albini and embarrass him more than his infamous nappy.

I was trying to trace that record online, but there isn't one, outside the claims made by his management company. It's not that I think they are lying, but I wonder if that record is outrageously padded with scrubs. There is no independent record of his kickboxing fights in English. Perhaps they are in Dutch. He lost to a kickboxer named Michael Duut who is ok, but nothing special.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Duut

And he has had 5 MMA fights, 4 against scrubs, and one legit win over Kovalev, who took him down and controlled him easily in the 2nd round, but lost bc he was gassed by the 3rd, and they were both gassed.

I just find it difficult to believe that someone who has such a great KB record doesn't have more presence online. Has anyone found anything outside the claim by his management company? Something is off imo.

 

[longway]

His BJJ looked non-existent in his last fight and his boxing defence isn't great with Kovalev landing clean overhand rights at will although his chin was solid and he stuffed all but one of Kovalev's takedowns. Comparatively Albini has fast hands, has never been KO'd and also (supposedly) has a brown belt in BJJ but has a straight up awful fight IQ, has beaten nobody decent outside of Tim Johnson and trains out of a terrible camp full of can crushers.

Not convinced going heavy on either is smart given each has big issues as a fighter but I favour Jairzinho and may bet a little but Albini does has clear holes he can exploit, I just think his fight IQ is far too low for him to do it.

I disagree that is fight IQ is poor. He made a big mistake against Oleynik, but then so have a tonne of others. And he is now training out of American Top Team. From the tape I have seen Jairzinho is nothing special at all. I think Junior will handle business outside a R1 KO by Jairzinho. But then again, I could be wrong. I will have 2U on Junior though, so I hope I am not. (Unless someone can show me an independent record of his kickboxing achievements, then I might cash out)



Found some more tape on Jairzinho, and he did well here. Bit of a fade on my bet.

 

[Dianabol]

I disagree that is fight IQ is poor. He made a big mistake against Oleynik, but then so have a tonne of others. And he is now training out of American Top Team. From the tape I have seen Jairzinho is nothing special at all. I think Junior will handle business outside a R1 KO by Jairzinho. But then again, I could be wrong. I will have 2U on Junior though, so I hope I am not. (Unless someone can show me an independent record of his kickboxing achievements, then I might cash out)



Found some more tape on Jairzinho, and he did well here. Bit of a fade on my bet.

I don't have any more information about his kickboxing record but JR was trained at Hemmers Gym which is one of the top kickboxing gyms in Holland. He may be a can crusher but he's been trained by top coaches and he's been in the practice room with some of the best strikers in the world. I don't doubt that he's a high level kickboxer and judging from his highlights, he's very powerful and dangerous.

Albini losing to Arlovski, getting soundly outstruck and only attempting 1 TD makes me like JR's chances a lot

 

[null]

I don't have any more information about his kickboxing record but JR was trained at Hemmers Gym which is one of the top kickboxing gyms in Holland. He may be a can crusher but he's been trained by top coaches and he's been in the practice room with some of the best strikers in the world. I don't doubt that he's a high level kickboxer and judging from his highlights, he's very powerful and dangerous.

Albini losing to Arlovski, getting soundly outstruck and only attempting 1 TD makes me like JR's chances a lot

A kickboxing victory over Benjamin Adegbuyi is impressive on his resume, but that was very early in Adegbuyi's career back in 2011 and Adegbuyi avenged the loss later. Another way to look the MMA comparison with Albini is that Albini went the distance with a savvy veteran like Arlovski and only lost a decision while at least taking one round on one of the judge's scorecards. Arlovski would likely finish Rozenstruik in the first round on the feet or on the ground.

 

[Dianabol]

A kickboxing victory over Benjamin Adegbuyi is impressive on his resume, but that was very early in Adegbuyi's career back in 2011 and Adegbuyi avenged the loss later. Another way to look the MMA comparison with Albini is that Albini went the distance with a savvy veteran like Arlovski and only lost a decision while at least taking one round on one of the judge's scorecards. Arlovski would likely finish Rozenstruik in the first round on the feet or on the ground.

LOL at you thinking Arlovski would finish JR on the feet. Arlovski is a bum HW at this point, lost 8 of his last 10. Losing to him at this point is shameful

 

[null]

LOL at you thinking Arlovski would finish JR on the feet. Arlovski is a bum HW at this point, lost 8 of his last 10. Losing to him at this point is shameful

Professional MMA fighters with vastly more MMA experience who have actually beaten opponents with good records have lost to even the recent older version of Arlovski. Rozenstruik has to win this Albini fight to prove he even belongs in the lowest rankings of the UFC heavyweight division, something I suspect he is going to fail at doing.

 

[SBJJ]

I think Assuncao is a good dog here

 

[Dianabol]

Professional MMA fighters with vastly more MMA experience who have actually beaten opponents with good records have lost to even the recent older version of Arlovski. Rozenstruik has to win this Albini fight to prove he even belongs in the lowest rankings of the UFC heavyweight division, something I suspect he is going to fail at doing.

I agree JR needs to prove himself but he's got a lot going for him. Still young for a HW, has devastating power, good athleticism, undefeated. If Albini can't get him down, Albini is going to lose. Do you trust Albini to wrestle enough to win? I don't.

JR deserves to be the favorite, he might end up being a bust but Albini really isn't very good at anything.

Arlovski is just a trash can, he's turning up for a paycheck, he doesn't have much desire to win unless you make it easy for him like Albini did.

 

[null]

I agree JR needs to prove himself but he's got a lot going for him. Still young for a HW, has devastating power, good athleticism, undefeated. If Albini can't get him down, Albini is going to lose. Do you trust Albini to wrestle enough to win? I don't.

JR deserves to be the favorite, he might end up being a bust but Albini really isn't very good at anything.

Arlovski is just a trash can, he's turning up for a paycheck, he doesn't have much desire to win unless you make it easy for him like Albini did.

Albini would be very wise to wrestle and certainly increase his chances of winning if he gets the little-ground-game-having Rozenstruik down, but I don't agree that it's his only chance to win. Rozenstruik has a lot to prove even as a striker in MMA and we have no idea how his chin is either. Look at a much higher level kickboxer like Gokhan Saki getting knocked out on the feet in the UFC by an opponent in Khalil Rountree who should not have been able to out strike him. The same thing could easily happen to Rozenstruik, especially if he gets tagged in the face and head as many times as that Ukranian can crusher Kovalev hit him in that Rizin fight.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Just comparing the two fighters I would favour JR over Albini (but that doesn't mean much, I'm not very knowledgable). But Albini is the kind of dog I like to bet on: overweight, wearing a diaper and terrible looking in his last two fights. The perfect profile to be overlooked! However, the surprisingly even odds suggests that people are betting on him... I'll be throwing some cash on Albini, but can't tell if it's a good idea...

Perez is my favourite bet on this card.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Disagree with the gentleman Dianabol on the Arlovski being "bum".

He is not a bum, he is uber experienced and savvy UFC vet. Even if you are some wrecking machine outside the UFC you just cannot match his experience. This alone is a big edge. We saw Overeem made quick work out of that russian fella. Experiece is king in the HW.

In the fights where he (AA) lost and he wasn't knocked out fast, he made a lot of guys really work for their win. Remember Tybura, Tuivasa and most recently Harris narrowly winning a decision? Since he got himself out of that toxing Jackson/Wink environment and went to a real pro camp in ATT he is just a much better fighter. The fact that he is kinda small for the division and progressively getting slower and less durable (cardiowise) because of his age is why he is losing and will continue losing to lesser competition. In some point your body just gives up, no matter how big of a technical edge you may have.

As far as this fight here - Albini is gonna win. I'm 80-90% confident in him. I see him @ ATT. I don't know for how long he's been there, but this is one of the better places to train right now. Plenty on sparring partners and top notch trainers. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer with very limited MMA experience. He does not even have a lot of experience in the cage, some of his MMA fights were in the ring. Not that this will matter too much, but it's something to consider.

I don't like K-1 style kickboxers in MMA. The style is not very well suited for the octagon (I mean at all not suited!). It's not techincal, it's more like two rams taking turns hitting each other and the more durable ram wins. There is no clinchwork cause the ref breaks the clinch instantly, there is no headmovement, there is no strategy thinking. The rounds are 3x3 which is another step removed from the things you will encounter in MMA.

I was trying to dig Glory, I really did. Followed their events for a year, back in the day when Saki was fighting, but fucking kickboxing is boring to watch, man. Short rounds, no time allowed to work in the clinch, no elbows, big fucking gloves and the covering and waiting for other guy to finish his combo and then throw is very repetitive and boring to watch. Where is the head movement, where is the slick evasion of kicks, where is the traps, counters? I don't see them. I see competition to see who can dish out more offence and who has the better conditioning and stronger chin. THAT IS IT! I am a bit angry.

 

[Dianabol]

Disagree with the gentleman Dianabol on the Arlovski being "bum".

He is not a bum, he is uber experienced and savvy UFC vet. Even if you are some wrecking machine outside the UFC you just cannot match his experience. This alone is a big edge. We saw Overeem made quick work out of that russian fella. Experiece is king in the HW.

In the fights where he (AA) lost and he wasn't knocked out fast, he made a lot of guys really work for their win. Remember Tybura, Tuivasa and most recently Harris narrowly winning a decision? Since he got himself out of that toxing Jackson/Wink environment and went to a real pro camp in ATT he is just a much better fighter. The fact that he is kinda small for the division and progressively getting slower and less durable (cardiowise) because of his age is why he is losing and will continue losing to lesser competition. In some point your body just gives up, no matter how big of a technical edge you may have.

As far as this fight here - Albini is gonna win. I'm 80-90% confident in him. I see him @ ATT. I don't know for how long he's been there, but this is one of the better places to train right now. Plenty on sparring partners and top notch trainers. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer with very limited MMA experience. He does not even have a lot of experience in the cage, some of his MMA fights were in the ring. Not that this will matter too much, but it's something to consider.

I don't like K-1 style kickboxers in MMA. The style is not very well suited for the octagon (I mean at all not suited!). It's not techincal, it's more like two rams taking turns hitting each other and the more durable ram wins. There is no clinchwork cause the ref breaks the clinch instantly, there is no headmovement, there is no strategy thinking. The rounds are 3x3 which is another step removed from the things you will encounter in MMA.

I was trying to dig Glory, I really did. Followed their events for a year, back in the day when Saki was fighting, but fucking kickboxing is boring to watch, man. Short rounds, no time allowed to work in the clinch, no elbows, big fucking gloves and the covering and waiting for other guy to finish his combo and then throw is very repetitive and boring to watch. Where is the head movement, where is the slick evasion of kicks, where is the traps, counters? I don't see them. I see competition to see who can dish out more offence and who has the better conditioning and stronger chin. THAT IS IT! I am a bit angry.

Arlovski is one of the biggest bums in the UFC HW division, 2-8 in his last 10, he deserves to be cut but UFC keep him around for name value. He has no desire to win fights anymore, it's just about getting paid, just watch his last fight. It's not about what he once was, it's about what he is now.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Arlovski is one of the biggest bums in the UFC HW division, 2-8 in his last 10, he deserves to be cut but UFC keep him around for name value. He has no desire to win fights anymore, it's just about getting paid, just watch his last fight. It's not about what he once was, it's about what he is now.

Dianabol, you didn't need to repeat yourself. I've read this already. See:

Arlovski is a bum HW at this point, lost 8 of his last 10.

Arlovski is just a trash can, he's turning up for a paycheck, he doesn't have much desire to win unless you make it easy for him like Albini did.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Most confident fighter to win on this card is Max Griffin, he will smoke Alves.

 

[Cockadoodle]

I like Perez as well. its your classic unproven new stud with a quick DWCS KO vs experienced UFC fighter. Time after time we have seen these can crushers struggle once they meet someone they cant beat in the first round. Hernandez is an explosive striker but Perez has a chin shown by the beating he took from Eryk Anders on short notice. Both are high level BJJ, tho I am expecting a lot of the fight to be striking and wild striking at that. I think there is no way you can pay the juice on hernandez without any proof he can hold his own in the UFC. He may prove me wrong but at 3/1 im prepared to go with experience.

 

[Cockadoodle]

I like David Teymur and would love to see his winning streak roll on. Unfortunately im not confident enough to bet on him. He is a great striker especially sitting on the outside and countering. He has good movement and TDD but Charles is a sneaky fucker and a lot of his TDs are sweetly timed while slipping punches. I dont expect Teymur to avoid being taken down and on the ground he is an unknown quantity.
Either way I doubt this one is going the distance, on the feet I expect Teymurs body kick to find a home in Oliveras ribs a la the Pettis fight so if he doesnt get the takedown I expect him to eventually fold. Will probably stick with FDNGD

 

[turbozed]

I was trying to dig Glory, I really did. Followed their events for a year, back in the day when Saki was fighting, but fucking kickboxing is boring to watch, man. Short rounds, no time allowed to work in the clinch, no elbows, big fucking gloves and the covering and waiting for other guy to finish his combo and then throw is very repetitive and boring to watch. Where is the head movement, where is the slick evasion of kicks, where is the traps, counters? I don't see them. I see competition to see who can dish out more offence and who has the better conditioning and stronger chin. THAT IS IT! I am a bit angry.

Yeah the meta game when it comes to K-1 style kickboxing is just not very nuanced in comparison to MMA and even Muay Thai. With 3 minute rounds and 3 rounds, you really just need to spam combinations and outvolume your opponent. Taking away sweeps, trips, elbows, and clinching takes away a ton of strategy and nuance from the action since you are penalized less for coming forward off balance and just spamming combos. A high level tactician like Saenchai wouldn't fare that well in K-1/Glory because his game is built on keeping his opponent off balance and controlling range. Most people think that range control is just about staying outside of kicking and punching range when that's only half of it. THe other half is controlling inside distance, stepping forward, and timing an opponent's over-commitment and hitting them with elbows, sweeps, trips, or dumping them from a clinch. It's like chess vs checkers.

I really like what One is doing getting high level Thais in a cage with MMA gloves and having them fight with a muay thai ruleset. If you're looking for slick, tactical, high-level striking, I think that's going to be (or should be) the next big thing.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Slightly off the topic:
Arlovski's surprising performances from Albini to Harris and Allen Crowder good showing v Hardy, where he was supposed to lose in a devastating fashion, made me remember that particular quirk of the HW division:
At heavyweight experience is KING. We put too much value on athleticism when we try to predict the fights (@ HW). It's the inertia we have from the other weighclasses, where athleticism does matter (or matter more). @ HW it's all about experience and veteran savvy, it seems. The punching power, the raw strenght, dynamism are nice, but this shit doesn't fly at heavyweight the way it does @ the lower weights. The overall technical level and cardio durability of most heavyweights are so low (understatement), that if you spend just a little more time developing some craft in one or two areas of the fight and you don't blow a gasket 2 minutes into the fight, you can win a lot of fights in the HW division. It is sad, but it's true.

@turbozed I would love to watch more fights outside UFC, but as it is I hardly have time for the fights that I am betting on. And all I bet are UFC fights. I watch Lion Fight MT now and then...

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I like Perez as well. its your classic unproven new stud with a quick DWCS KO vs experienced UFC fighter. Time after time we have seen these can crushers struggle once they meet someone they cant beat in the first round. Hernandez is an explosive striker but Perez has a chin shown by the beating he took from Eryk Anders on short notice. Both are high level BJJ, tho I am expecting a lot of the fight to be striking and wild striking at that. I think there is no way you can pay the juice on hernandez without any proof he can hold his own in the UFC. He may prove me wrong but at 3/1 im prepared to go with experience.

I would bet Hernandez if he were more athletic, Im no ufc fighter but Im more jacked than him at 190 lbs. Shame on him. Not to much tape on him either, dog or pass imo