UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[Jordan3399]

Neeeeeed tape on Thalia Santos

https://ok.ru/video/945719808283
That's her last fight on DWTNC series. Check out her opponents records if you haven't, it's pretty funny how bad her competition has been and she's facing a huge step up in competition.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Anyone have any thoughts on magomed bibulatov vs Rogerio Bontorin?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Brazilian hometown cooking post (Brazilian vs. Brazilian omitted):

UFC FN 137 - Sao: 11W, 2L, 1D
UFC 224 - Rio: 7W, 4L
UFC FN 125 - Belem: 9W, 2L
UFC FN 119 - Sao: 9W, 3L
UFC 212 - Rio: 7W, 4L
UFC FN 106 - Forta: 5W, 5L, 1D
UFC FN 100 - Sao: 7W, 5L

Probably something we all kinda knew but there's the numbers. When in doubt, take the Brazilian. And for the extra degen among us, Draws are at least a thing to them.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Brazilian hometown cooking post (Brazilian vs. Brazilian omitted):

UFC FN 137 - Sao: 11W, 2L, 1D
UFC 224 - Rio: 7W, 4L
UFC FN 125 - Belem: 9W, 2L
UFC FN 119 - Sao: 9W, 3L
UFC 212 - Rio: 7W, 4L
UFC FN 106 - Forta: 5W, 5L, 1D
UFC FN 100 - Sao: 7W, 5L

Probably something we all kinda knew but there's the numbers. When in doubt, take the Brazilian. And for the extra degen among us, Draws are at least a thing to them.

How do you side with the Brazilian in Aldo vs Moicano? The one who trains in Brazil?

 

[Soccer Steve]

How do you side with the Brazilian in Aldo vs Moicano? The one who trains in Brazil?

I'd say the legendary one. But not saying there's a edge to be had though, though there's obviously a pattern. Whether judging or performance improvement or a mix.

 

[Sadistics]

I'd say the legendary one. But not saying there's a edge to be had though, though there's obviously a pattern. Whether judging or performance improvement or a mix.

Probably also has to do with setting the home town guys up for a win against weaker opposition

 

[turbozed]

https://ok.ru/video/945719808283
That's her last fight on DWTNC series. Check out her opponents records if you haven't, it's pretty funny how bad her competition has been and she's facing a huge step up in competition.

Youtube has a clearer and better video:

 

[turbozed]

I really like Borella and Thiago Alves, both are coming of decision losses they should probably of won so are getting underrated badly.

Santos seems like an absolute can crusher while Borella had a coin flip fight with the no.3 girl in the division and looks great training out of ATT. Seems the fact she is relatively unknown coming off a loss facing a 16-0 fighter is all people looked at when making the odds.

Alves too looked against Kunchenko and a lot thought he won the first 2 rounds. He's just a fundamentally very sound fighter with solid Muay Thai taking on Griffin who is hyped now after narrowly beating the worst version of Perry we'd ever seen and looked pretty underwhelming elsewhere imo. He hits hard and is younger but at around +200 I think Alves is solid I think he should probably win a decision.

I'm on board with Borella after second round of tape. There's a good chance Borella smokes her with grappling. Taila's striking looks good against 0-1 cans that stand still for her, but she doesn't fight well moving backwards and let's girls get in on her legs to be taken down. She fought off a single and double from Almeida but that girl had zero drive once she grapped Taila. Literally froze in place once grabbing Taila's legs. Almeida's record reveals she has only beaten jobbers so Taila's win here doesn't seem to mean much. I feel like this line is flipped due to the 15-0 record and "technical" looking striking of Taila. Think there might be a huge grappling disparity.

 

[Gugabe]

Probably also has to do with setting the home town guys up for a win against weaker opposition

Also a neat stat, fights in Brazil end by submission like 30% of the time.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm on board with Borella after second round of tape. There's a good chance Borella smokes her with grappling. Taila's striking looks good against 0-1 cans that stand still for her, but she doesn't fight well moving backwards and let's girls get in on her legs to be taken down. She fought off a single and double from Almeida but that girl had zero drive once she grapped Taila. Literally froze in place once grabbing Taila's legs. Almeida's record reveals she has only beaten jobbers so Taila's win here doesn't seem to mean much. I feel like this line is flipped due to the 15-0 record and "technical" looking striking of Taila. Think there might be a huge grappling disparity.

My thoughts the same and I'll look play the Borella sub a bit, could see it going very similarly to her fight with Kalindra Faria. Couldn't find any mention of how high level Santos BJJ is but Faria was a supposed brown belt and got completely dominated when she took on a half decent MMA grappler.

 

[Sham5916910]

I scored the first one for Marlon so I’m looking at this rematch as though Moraes won the fight myself. Obviously with close rounds you always need to be concerned that judges will score it “wrong”, especially when it has already happened once in the past, but I’m pretty confident that Moraes gets the win this time.

This time around, Moraes has more octagon experience, he’s entering his prime at 30 years old and is looking as fast and sharp as ever. Despite still looking stellar himself, Assuncao is an almost 37 year old vet in a weightclass that historically hasn’t been very forgiving to aging fighters, especially in the later rounds.

This being a 5 rounder seems to me to be in Moraes’ favor. I don’t see an Assuncao finish as being too likely here, so what’s left is edging out close rounds on the scorecards once again only this time he’ll need to do it in at least 3 separate rounds. I think Moraes’ speed and youth will really start to shine in rounds 3-5 even if rounds 1 & 2 are close.

I was hoping for a much closer line, but I played Moraes @ -217 and I’m feeling pretty confident about it. If the line tightens towards the fight I may double up, but as good as Assuncao is, I’m ok with my play at this price.

Maybe my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt though since I’ve been predicting Moraes would win the UFC belt since before his debut, but I think I’m usually pretty good at staying objective.

Excellent post - agree completely. Moraes really took over in r3 of their first fight.

 

[Dianabol]

My thoughts the same and I'll look play the Borella sub a bit, could see it going very similarly to her fight with Kalindra Faria. Couldn't find any mention of how high level Santos BJJ is but Faria was a supposed brown belt and got completely dominated when she took on a half decent MMA grappler.

Yeah Faria's brown belt is garbage, she also got tapped by Calderwood and easily controlled by Eye. Borella is a blue belt.

I don't think Borella is going to win this, it's a step up for Santos but I like what she's shown. Her kickboxing is legit, good technical striking, fights behind her jab really well, nice low kicks. Santos also showed some good TDD and had success on the mat vs her DWTNCS opponent. I like the athleticism shown by Santos too and she has a great frame for the division.I know Santos is a can crusher but she's also undefeated and has kickboxing experience, she's dominated her opposition as she should.

Borella needs to get TD's to win but I don't trust her to be persistent enough with her wrestling. She needs to have a heavy wrestling gameplan and thats not really what she does, she'll mix in TD's but she likes to strike too.

Santos is a big athletic girl and she's shown decent TDD, even if this hits the mat, Borella is not a high level BJJ player, Santos trains with blackbelts like Frota, I'm sure Santos can hold her own on the mat.

The athleticism and striking Santos possesses makes me think she has a lot of potential, she's only 25 years old too. I hope money keeps coming in on Borella, I like the Brazilian in Brazil in a fight which should go to the cards.

 

[Dianabol]

People saying Scoggins on robbed vs Said, I don't agree. 1st round was a coinflip, 2nd round was Scoggins cause he landed the bigger shots, 3rd round was Said's, Scoggins coasted. Very close fight. According to fight metric, Said outlanded Scoggins 2-1

Ramos is also coming off a very close fight vs Kang. Ramos has glaring hole in his game and it's his conditioning, he looks great until he starts to get tired, he fades down the stretch, clearly lost the 3rd vs Kang. Ramos is also massive for the division and maybe his weight cut effects his conditioning.

I'm still going to pick Ramos to beat Said though, I like that this fight is in Brazil, Ramos is so well rounded I think he'll have success standing but can also mix in TD's. If he doesn't finish Said, I think he'll do enough to win a decision in Brazil.

 

[turbozed]

My thoughts the same and I'll look play the Borella sub a bit, could see it going very similarly to her fight with Kalindra Faria. Couldn't find any mention of how high level Santos BJJ is but Faria was a supposed brown belt and got completely dominated when she took on a half decent MMA grappler.

Taila is listed as a BJJ blue belt. Borella is also listed as a blue belt but her MMA grappling looks pretty good.

 

[turbozed]

Yeah Faria's brown belt is garbage, she also got tapped by Calderwood and easily controlled by Eye. Borella is a blue belt.

I don't think Borella is going to win this, it's a step up for Santos but I like what she's shown. Her kickboxing is legit, good technical striking, fights behind her jab really well, nice low kicks. Santos also showed some good TDD and had success on the mat vs her DWTNCS opponent. I like the athleticism shown by Santos too and she has a great frame for the division.I know Santos is a can crusher but she's also undefeated and has kickboxing experience, she's dominated her opposition as she should.

Borella needs to get TD's to win but I don't trust her to be persistent enough with her wrestling. She needs to have a heavy wrestling gameplan and thats not really what she does, she'll mix in TD's but she likes to strike too.

Santos is a big athletic girl and she's shown decent TDD, even if this hits the mat, Borella is not a high level BJJ player, Santos trains with blackbelts like Frota, I'm sure Santos can hold her own on the mat.

The athleticism and striking Santos possesses makes me think she has a lot of potential, she's only 25 years old too. I hope money keeps coming in on Borella, I like the Brazilian in Brazil in a fight which should go to the cards.

Her kickboxing looks fine but this isn't a kickboxing match. She looks technical when she's in her preferred range, but when Almeida rushed at her, all she did was retreat back to the cage. If she can't stop girls from coming at her with strikes, or angle off to avoid the cage, then it's a trivial matter for grapplers to get their hands on her. At that point it'll be about strength in the clinch and Borella seems pretty strong muscling down supposed judo black belts like Dudieva.

In open mat scenarios, Talia also let Almeida get deep into TD shots standing very upright. I don't think her TDD looked great at all, moreso Almeida TD looked like garbage not driving through whatsoever. If Borella gets that deep and just throws a leg around for a trip, I expect Taila to go down pretty easy. If you look at Almeida's record, she also is a huge can crusher without one win over a decent opponent (every girl she beat with a winning record are on losing skids). Almeida is several levels below the likes of Chookagian and Kalinda Faria imo, and she's one of the best wins on Talia's record.

Frota's BJJ is good but she's not top control grappler, and gets all of her subs from the bottom. Frota's mma wrestling looks sub-par. In terms of high level training partners, Borella is training at ATT with strong mma grapplers. Not sure how you can be so confident in a near 2-1 fave regional fighter that hasn't fought near UFC compeittion before. Lipski's striking and grappling look better than Taila, and she fought better girls than Taila in KSW. Despite that, even Calderwood's grappling was too much for her (and Calderwood was totally overpowered by Faria). There's a good chance that this is a similar situation. In any case worth a shot at the +160 dog who actually has wins in Invicta/UFC.

 

[Dianabol]

Yeah you make a lot of good points and I don't disagree.

If I could trust Borella to come out and be relentless with her grappling I'd like her chances a lot more. But that not what she does, only attempted 3 TD's vs Chook, completed one.

Santos will have a clear striking advantage, she'll pick Borella apart and this time she's in a big cage and can use her movement even more. Santos' athleticism alone makes her difficult to takedown. Almedia had poor wrestling but Santos showed she knows how to stuff a TD and did so easily.

Santos is still too expensive to play IMO but as a slight favorite I'd like her.

 

[Jordan3399]

Taila is listed as a BJJ blue belt. Borella is also listed as a blue belt but her MMA grappling looks pretty good.

Excellent, Borella's MMA grappling looked way above that and I am not impressed at all with Santos grappling or really with much of her game (or Astra Fight Team at all really). Borella has looked at her best grappling and will only be improving the longer she's at ATT where she has look so much better in less than 2 years. Really surprised she's a dog and got 2u on her already plus might add more to that and the sub prop, not worried about her striking at all when she arguably won the first 2 rounds over a striker like Chookagian who would likely dominate Santos.

 

[edole]

FWIW, I didnt hate what I saw from Santos in her lone dwtncs fight.

Who knows what's going to happen lol

Dog or pass

 

[Wiktoruspro]

This Hernandez is very unathletic.. Perez will be much bigger

 

[turbozed]

Yeah you make a lot of good points and I don't disagree.

If I could trust Borella to come out and be relentless with her grappling I'd like her chances a lot more. But that not what she does, only attempted 3 TD's vs Chook, completed one.

Santos will have a clear striking advantage, she'll pick Borella apart and this time she's in a big cage and can use her movement even more. Santos' athleticism alone makes her difficult to takedown. Almedia had poor wrestling but Santos showed she knows how to stuff a TD and did so easily.

Santos is still too expensive to play IMO but as a slight favorite I'd like her.

I really don't think Santos is all that athletic, and maybe that's where we disagree. If you can point out specific points in tape where's she's shown good strength or explosiveness, I'd appreciate it.

Santos is pretty muscular with a masculine frame, almost looking like a mini GDR. That might help her avoid the takedowns, but it also might be a liability if she's not comfortable grappling and is forced to. Lipski, for comparison, is also athletic but the grappling in the first round seriously sapped her and made her look very slow lethargic in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I think with the information gaps it's either dog or pass. Even if we assume Santos's skills translate to the higher level, she only comfortably won a decision against a very bad DWCS opponent. The only other reasonably skilled opponent she fought was Gisele Moreira, and that went to decision as well. If she does win, I'm guessing it will almost surely be by a somewhat close decision. On the other end, if Santos is really not ready for this level, then I can see Mara winning by sub or by a dominant grappling decision.