UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

[Shoulder]

My only play so far is Dodson and Valentina double @1.78 3U. I’ll be really surprised if they don’t win pretty handy.

 

[Oblivian]

The interesting factor with both of those is that their opponents spent a long time at the lighter weight class. Green was a featherweight for a long time and Dodson was flyweight. Now they are fighting a natural lightweight (also former welterweight) and natural bantamweight who are coming in heavy. Both fighters also would like also like to get takedowns and use their weight.

 

[chemmy]

The interesting factor with both of those is that their opponents spent a long time at the lighter weight class. Green was a featherweight for a long time and Dodson was flyweight. Now they are fighting a natural lightweight (also former welterweight) and natural bantamweight who are coming in heavy. Both fighters also would like also like to get takedowns and use their weight.

Good point. It's still hard to see it at a plus for either guy at this point, but it very well could prove to be during the fight.

 

[raketmannen]

I guess I'm betting Munhoz and Prazeres for sure now, been slightly leaning them the whole week but wanted better odds, such an advantage when they miss by this much

 

[Card]

Since early weigh-ins... fighters missing weight have been winning alot. I remember someone did a count for before UFC 220.. it was 7-2 out of 10 events.

Past statistics would say the fighter that missed weight would almost always lose... now it's the complete opposite since early weigh-ins.

If the trend continues - Munhoz and Prazeres are winning tomorrow.

 

[chemmy]

I guess I'm betting Munhoz and Prazeres for sure now, been slightly leaning them the whole week but wanted better odds, such an advantage when they miss by this much

Are you not concerned about Prazeres' gastank after the failed weight cut?

 

[raketmannen]

Are you not concerned about Prazeres' gastank after the failed weight cut?

Failed? This is a success, he had to cut 5 less pounds of waterweight. Had he come in 1 pound over I'd be worried

All fights I can remember lately where one fighter comes in way over the weight limit has won, Josh Emmett, Mads Burnell of the top of my head, know there's a lot more

 

[Jamah]

Hadzovic at +210 / 3.10, might be the best pick of the card.
Patrick has weak stand up and relies on his bjj to win fights, if he can't take Hadzovic on the ground, he is going to be in trouble.
I don't think that Patrick is going to have an easy time taking Hadzovic down, who has a judo background. This isn't going to be Patrick vs Ray 2.0
Patrick doesn't like to get hit, and hasn't fought in over a year (I don't know why, but he wasn't suspended).
At the current odds, I think that Hadzovic is a no brainer pick.

 

[chemmy]

Failed? This is a success, he had to cut 5 less pounds of waterweight. Had he come in 1 pound over I'd be worried

Do you not think that it could be a sign that something went wrong during camp though -- injury, illness...?

 

[Card]

Here's a recent list of fighters who have won...

- Mads Burnell (4 pounds)
- Josh Emmett (2.5 pounds)
- Rolando Dy (2 pounds)
- Nadia Kassem (4 pounds)
- Frank Camacho (4 pounds)
- Ryan Benoit (3 pounds)
- Jessica-Rose Clark (2 pounds)

 

[raketmannen]

Do you not think that it could be a sign that something went wrong during camp though -- injury, illness...?

It could, but most likely he knew he was not gonna make it and bailed before it got too rough. The fee will be the same and you have a better chance at getting your win money, so why bother

 

[Jamah]

Anders missed weight too

 

[Oblivian]

Praz has also won twice already missing weight.

 

[chemmy]

It could, but most likely he knew he was not gonna make it and bailed before it got too rough. The fee will be the same and you have a better chance at getting your win money, so why bother

You could be right and the extra weight will likely help him control Green in the first round if he gets on top, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on it being a plus in this matchup myself.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

I'm still picking Dodson and Green to win, and most likely still betting Green, I think the extra weight won't help their opponents all that much. But we'll see.

 

[Shoulder]

Shev dec @2.65 is a must play. 0.75, and I’ll throw away 0.5U at Machida KO/[email protected] cause I want to believe.

 

[raketmannen]

You could be right and the extra weight will likely help him control Green in the first round if he gets on top, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on it being a plus in this matchup myself.

I dont think the extra weight is the big difference, rather that he will be properly hydrated compared to if he had made weight, should improve his gastank and maybe his abillity to take a punch better

 

[Gugabe]

Since early weigh-ins... fighters missing weight have been winning alot. I remember someone did a count for before UFC 220.. it was 7-2 out of 10 events.

Past statistics would say the fighter that missed weight would almost always lose... now it's the complete opposite since early weigh-ins.

If the trend continues - Munhoz and Prazeres are winning tomorrow.

My issue with that stat is that you kind of need to cancel-out pre weigh-in odds. I remember everybody that missed weight won in the Sydney card, but they were all -200 or better favorites before hand so it isn't necessarily a meaningful stat. I'd be more interested in seeing how missing weight effects upsets.

 

[BarArm]

How come there are no videos or pictures from the weighins?

 

[chemmy]

I dont think the extra weight is the big difference, rather that he will be properly hydrated compared to if he had made weight, should improve his gastank and maybe his abillity to take a punch better

That's a possibility, but keep in mind that this is the 3rd time in three fights that Prazeres has missed weight, and the other two times weren't just by a pound either.