UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

[chanp6]

Ehh, Shev is a decision machine in her UFC career, her kickboxing career also.

+odds on this would be the way to go though.

big step down in competition this time around

 

[Gugabe]

Machida KO1 @ +1300 & Dodson KO1 @ +1000 both tempting to me.

big step down in competition this time around

Yeah. She finished most of her regional bouts, and this woman's regional-level competition.

 

[edole]

PSA:

Anthony Smith is not a high-level fighter.
Thiago Santos is not a high-level fighter.

Be careful with this one.

 

[Naterade]

PSA:

Anthony Smith is not a high-level fighter.
Thiago Santos is not a high-level fighter.

Be careful with this one.

I'd argue Santos is approaching high level, he needs work on his ground game (which this fight probably won't go to) but he has improved his TDD and his stand up is just nasty, Hermansson is no joke and he starched him. Smith I would agree is not high level and actually fairly bad, hes tough however and can come on strong in the 3rd if opponent is already gassed...don't think this fight makes it that far though.

 

[Sadistics]

how many guys have taken down john dodson?

Pretty sure just DJ and Moares briefly. Pedro has weak TDs, if this hit the mat it's because Dodson wants it there. I'd hope he doesn't go for TDs but him drilling them at open workouts has me wotried

 

[EzFlyer]

Like you I planned to play Patrick pre tape but I kinda like Damir at these odds. I agree Patrick is fucked if he can't get TDs, Damir also has that knee as one of his main weapons and Patrick ducks his head a lot. If he can get the TDs he's very smothering and prefers control over going for a sub.

I'll probably pass, would've played Patrick dec if it was north of +200, waiting to see the Damir NSC line.

Fookin -odds

 

[EzFlyer]

Moraes also didn’t break the choke

That’s why I think he tapped on him. Like, get off of me the horn rang

I disagree, he was flat-out tapping

Munhoz gets ahold of your neck, man... It's always a chance.. I'm all over +600

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

^ Does Morales have a history of a takedown heavy gameplan?

All his fight just end end up there one way or another. Neither fighter particularly forcing it. Combination of him being sloppy/weak/maybe not to bothered about being taken down. No one who ends up on there back at some pt of every single round can be too good at wrestling

 

[MT6ix]

Pretty sure just DJ and Moares briefly. Pedro has weak TDs, if this hit the mat it's because Dodson wants it there. I'd hope he doesn't go for TDs but him drilling them at open workouts has me wotried

I wouldn't be too worried, in an interview posted by Card after the open workouts, he said he was showing takedowns and ji jitsu because the crowd was asking to see ji jitsu.

How are you playing the fight?

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

How is morales weak?

Looks weak to me. Only weighed in at 132 for a 135 contest so can't be to big. That was 2015 and he a kid so maybe bigger now

 

[EzFlyer]

im already 3 units deep on dodson at -142. watched munhoz against font and came away very confident in dodson. Like everyone else fear his lack of volume and bias judges

Dodson is *always* low volume. Don't get how people are laying -odds here.

I'm all over munhoz, munhoz nsc, and munhoz sub.

 

[Sadistics]

I wouldn't be too worried, in an interview posted by Card after the open workouts, he said he was showing takedowns and ji jitsu because the crowd was asking to see ji jitsu.

How are you playing the fight?

3u Dodson -150. If he comes in with the same gameplan as he had against Lineker I see an easy 30-27 if not a left headkick finish. My worry is that he's not judge friendly while Munhoz will be pressing forward the whole foght

 

[Gugabe]

Rewatching Anders fights, I'm backing Machida even harder than I was originally. Anders' pressure game relied more on Natal having abysmal footwork, than him doing anything particularly sophisticated. I also think Machida's chin going is a little overblown. Machida's only been KO'd by massive shots, it's not like he's getting dropped by jabs in there.

 

[streetSub101]

shevchenko fight sitting at 1.7 for U2.5 ... one of those rare times a womans doesnt go the distance?

Shev lost the fight vs Nunes because lack of aggression. I think Shev have focused on here offensive striking to get the belt from nunes. And she wants and needs to finish this fight to be next in line for a title fight

 

[ill800]

Shev lost the fight vs Nunes because lack of aggression. I think Shev have focused on here offensive striking to get the belt from nunes. And she wants and needs to finish this fight to be next in line for a title fight

There’s no one else to fight nunes in that division right now.

I also wouldn’t bet on fighters who have been fighting one way there whole life changing things up. Dodson and schev can say they’re going to stand in the pocket all they want. I’m not betting on that happening.

I thought bullet dec +177 was a decent price.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

These are my picks for the event, I'll post my bets after the weigh ins tomorrow.

Anders, Dodson, Shevchenko, Green, Johnson, Smith, Means, Patrick, Vera, Figueiredo, Soto, Viana.

Hardest fights to call for me are Johnson/Golm and Alcantara/Soto.

 

[Ballsaque]

Rewatching Anders fights, I'm backing Machida even harder than I was originally. Anders' pressure game relied more on Natal having abysmal footwork, than him doing anything particularly sophisticated. I also think Machida's chin going is a little overblown. Machida's only been KO'd by massive shots, it's not like he's getting dropped by jabs in there.

Problem is more that he's getting hit by massive shots.. constantly.

 

[Gugabe]

Problem is more that he's getting hit by massive shots.. constantly.

? Have you done your film study?

Brunson caught him with a blind left hook that was massive, and Machida'd been tagging Brunsoon throughout that fight. Romero and Rockhold both dragged him to the ground and then unloaded with the massive shots that put him out.

 

[vkram]

Munhoz and Prazeres missed weight

 

[Ukram]

Anyone heard if Pedro (4 pounds over) and Praz (5 pounds over) fights are still going to happen ?

That's not a small amount exactly !