UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[mkess101]

It sounded obnoxious but it was a joke. no offence intended honestly.

Ahh ok cool. No worries then. I kinda figured when I saw the next couple posts by you and him. All good man. Welcome and look forward to seeing you posting here.

 

[weedreference]

I like the o1.5 of Asker/Smoliokov at evens. Both are competent grapplers, and each will want to avoid going to their back at all costs, so I expect a lot of conservative clinching. All HWs have power (which is why the lines are always set at 1.5), but neither of these guys have precision or unpredictability, which are the true marks of knockout artists. I'd be surprised if this fight isn't a stalemate.

Obviously not insane value, but you guys seem desperate.

 

[piglord]

i think the line on sergio is about right. moraga is no walk in the park so it's hard to be too confident.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Pettis should be -500, he will dominate this fight.

 

[Ukram]

The only strategy of Bojan seems to be slamming opponents to the ground, getting on top of them and tkoing with head punches. Perhaps not too sophisticated, but might hit if his odds get out of control as I expect.

Also perhaps it might be hard to judge whether this fighter is a "can crusher" based on data since most of his opponents have been mostly competing within a more limited environment thus having records that make them look worse than they really are.
Having said this, Christensen's fitness level will definitely be an advantage over Bojan nevermind the fact that the Serbian brute will have to fight at a lower weight category.

Yeah noticed that about bojan also especially in r1, do like christensen bit more though at this point but its not an confidence pick by any means.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Did some tape watching last night and i'm surprised so many like Walt Harris. Besides a left down the middle when Sherman throws a kick, I'm not sure how he can win. Think Sherman is a solid dog bet on this card. Tougher than Harris, better hand speed, probably better cardio (the pace vs Ledet in elevation is pretty ridiculous. Meanwhile low volume fight vs Shamil and Walt was gradually appearing to get more and more tired), and muchh better striking. Some of the posts favoring Harris mention his boxing, but what boxing? The dude lumbers one punch, sometimes two at a time and thats it. No set ups, no combos, no defensive savvy. He just tries to time those shots.

Watch Sherman on the regionals and when he was fresh vs Ledet. That dude has some very fluid and very good dutch kickboxing. Ledet is 10x the boxer Harris is in every way, and before Sherman started gassing and getting jabbed to death he was doing a good job on finding his own punch combinations on the inside. Hell even in round 3 when he looked like he wanted to pass out, he still showed tremendous heart and had good offensive moments.

So yeah, already on the over, will be on Sherman and Sherman dec as well

 

[iGnP]

Did some tape watching last night and i'm surprised so many like Walt Harris. Besides a left down the middle when Sherman throws a kick, I'm not sure how he can win. Think Sherman is a solid dog bet on this card. Tougher than Harris, better hand speed, probably better cardio (the pace vs Ledet in elevation is pretty ridiculous. Meanwhile low volume fight vs Shamil and Walt was gradually appearing to get more and more tired), and muchh better striking. Some of the posts favoring Harris mention his boxing, but what boxing? The dude lumbers one punch, sometimes two at a time and thats it. No set ups, no combos, no defensive savvy. He just tries to time those shots.

Watch Sherman on the regionals and when he was fresh vs Ledet. That dude has some very fluid and very good dutch kickboxing. Ledet is 10x the boxer Harris is in every way, and before Sherman started gassing and getting jabbed to death he was doing a good job on finding his own punch combinations on the inside. Hell even in round 3 when he looked like he wanted to pass out, he still showed tremendous heart and had good offensive moments.

So yeah, already on the over, will be on Sherman and Sherman dec as well

Walt won't have to worry about the takedown. Both have shown to be okay w going in there and banging. Walt has more power


That was my takeaway

 

[Joseph Budden]

Walt won't have to worry about the takedown. Both have shown to be okay w going in there and banging. Walt has more power


That was my takeaway

I'll take skills over power in this one. Especially when someone has a chin and heart like Sherman. And Sherman def seems to have more skills to me, especially when its likely Walt doesn't even attempt to utilize his physicality with clinches or anything and will likely just strike with Sherm.

 

[chanp6]

Hey everybody ... Been reading the forums for a while now but finally decided to make an account in the hopes to be an active poster

Wondering why everyone is so confident the Harris/Sherman fight will go over? Two heavyweights who have a record of either finishing or being finished in the first round ...

 

[HumbleCoco]

Did some tape watching last night and i'm surprised so many like Walt Harris. Besides a left down the middle when Sherman throws a kick, I'm not sure how he can win. Think Sherman is a solid dog bet on this card. Tougher than Harris, better hand speed, probably better cardio (the pace vs Ledet in elevation is pretty ridiculous. Meanwhile low volume fight vs Shamil and Walt was gradually appearing to get more and more tired), and muchh better striking. Some of the posts favoring Harris mention his boxing, but what boxing? The dude lumbers one punch, sometimes two at a time and thats it. No set ups, no combos, no defensive savvy. He just tries to time those shots.

Watch Sherman on the regionals and when he was fresh vs Ledet. That dude has some very fluid and very good dutch kickboxing. Ledet is 10x the boxer Harris is in every way, and before Sherman started gassing and getting jabbed to death he was doing a good job on finding his own punch combinations on the inside. Hell even in round 3 when he looked like he wanted to pass out, he still showed tremendous heart and had good offensive moments.

So yeah, already on the over, will be on Sherman and Sherman dec as well

I agree with the analysis generally but I just wish the odds were better on the dog. Might well join you on a SU

 

[iGnP]

I'll take skills over power in this one. Especially when someone has a chin and heart like Sherman. And Sherman def seems to have more skills to me, especially when its likely Walt doesn't even attempt to utilize his physicality with clinches or anything and will likely just strike with Sherm.

Does Sherm really have a good chin though? He got bloodied against Ledet but Ledet wasn't throwing fight ending punches. He was content w piecing him up

And yeah I'd say Sherman prob has better boxing but is the disparity that significant? Walts gonna have a reach advantage too

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hey everybody ... Been reading the forums for a while now but finally decided to make an account in the hopes to be an active poster

Wondering why everyone is so confident the Harris/Sherman fight will go over? Two heavyweights who have a record of either finishing or being finished in the first round ...

Harris is low volume, not very aggressive, biggest threat is one big power shot and Sherman has shown a chin and heart. Sherm doesn't pack the heaviest power for a HW, solid chance Harris is durable enough to make it 7.5 mins barring a head kick. Now at -135 I think its a pass though. Caught it at -115 which is where I cap it. Sherm can still get aggressive early and either land some hard flurries or get caught with a big left while throwing a low kick. Plus they are HWs, or else i'd cap it a bit higher.

 

[HumbleCoco]

One other thing to add is that Sherman was worried about the takedowns in the Ledet fight according to Stann. I know Ledet had sub wins but surely you'd think they'd be concerned with the boxing record. This makes me slightly worried that Sherman is lacking on the ground and Harris could exploit this if his camp gives him the gameplan. I don't weight it heavily but I thought it was a tidbit to know.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Does Sherm really have a good chin though? He got bloodied against Ledet but Ledet wasn't throwing fight ending punches. He was content w piecing him up

And yeah I'd say Sherman prob has better boxing but is the disparity that significant? Walts gonna have a reach advantage too

Ledet landed some full power shots, one knee in particular I remember. I think Brian Stann wasn't giving Sherm enough defensive credit as most of the giant power shots weren't 100% clean (and honestly even though he was too slow when he was gassed Sherm was still trying to slip jabs, duck under, get his shoulder in front of his chin when Ledet moved forward with combos and Stann just wanted to keep pointing out how his head kept getting jabbed lol) but in elevation to be eating those shots the dude obviously has a beard and heart.

Considering Sherman is the dog here? It is definitely significant enough he should be the one being bet imo. I'm worried about the potential things Harris can do. He trains with ATT, he'll have a physicality advantage, he'd be wise to grab kicks and test Sherm's wrestling and bottom game if he can and if the counter left isn't working. If I was sure this was going to be a straight kickboxing match, i'd be all over Sherm in a serious way. Besides a counter left I don't see what Walt can do standing. Reach advantage isn't going to help when he doesn't know how to use it at all.

 

[Joseph Budden]

One other thing to add is that Sherman was worried about the takedowns in the Ledet fight according to Stann. I know Ledet had sub wins but surely you'd think they'd be concerned with the boxing record. This makes me slightly worried that Sherman is lacking on the ground and Harris could exploit this if his camp gives him the gameplan. I don't weight it heavily but I thought it was a tidbit to know.

It could also be he was feeling himself too much in the stand up though. He might've thought the dutch kickboxing style he uses under Belcher would beat straight boxing and Ledet had a bunch of subs on his MMA record and as his last fight showed, he'll take guys down and work jits too. But who knows.

 

[HumbleCoco]

It could also be he was feeling himself too much in the stand up though. He might've thought the dutch kickboxing style he uses under Belcher would beat straight boxing and Ledet had a bunch of subs on his MMA record and as his last fight showed, he'll take guys down and work jits too. But who knows.

I'm pretty sure Stann meant it as what his corner said to him pre-fight when he does his usual research. Again, it's not a big deal but I couldn't see any film of him on the ground

 

[Basek]

Just noticed that Smolyakov is from Kaliningrad, a Russian territory between Poland and Lithuania. He also came up the Baltic regional circuit and mainly fought cans, fought 3 people with winning records (one of them was 1-0).

Good observation plus look at his body type from this fights and UFC - usada+age , he is a can hired for the record . I watched 4 his fights where the fock is that golden medal wrestling lol , but his opponent is also a bum story.
Imo coin flip and if small amount I would put it on French dude that strikes looks somehow that he has idea what he do with hands.

 

[Basek]

Typical casual bettor

Show your bet slip for this event or your bet history pro. Prove casuals how amateur they are.

 

[Oblivian]

Did some tape watching last night and i'm surprised so many like Walt Harris. Besides a left down the middle when Sherman throws a kick, I'm not sure how he can win. Think Sherman is a solid dog bet on this card. Tougher than Harris, better hand speed, probably better cardio (the pace vs Ledet in elevation is pretty ridiculous. Meanwhile low volume fight vs Shamil and Walt was gradually appearing to get more and more tired), and muchh better striking. Some of the posts favoring Harris mention his boxing, but what boxing? The dude lumbers one punch, sometimes two at a time and thats it. No set ups, no combos, no defensive savvy. He just tries to time those shots.

Watch Sherman on the regionals and when he was fresh vs Ledet. That dude has some very fluid and very good dutch kickboxing. Ledet is 10x the boxer Harris is in every way, and before Sherman started gassing and getting jabbed to death he was doing a good job on finding his own punch combinations on the inside. Hell even in round 3 when he looked like he wanted to pass out, he still showed tremendous heart and had good offensive moments.

So yeah, already on the over, will be on Sherman and Sherman dec as well

Glad you posted this. I was thinking Sherman myself, but figured I must be missing something.

 

[piglord]

also on sherman, walt sucks.