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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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Sham5916910 said:
Just further to my post above tho, is it just me or is it pretty rare for you to change your mind after watching tape? I find maybe 1/10 times i change my mind after watching tape so i can see how people can do it without watching tape. Last time i changed my mind was when i was going to bet on Camozzi to beat Kelly. After watching tape tho Kelly was no where near as bad as i thought and i actually leaned Kelly. Of course it can be invaluable tho my initial gut feel on Borg Smolka was no idea pick 'em. But after watching tape i strongly favoured Borg.
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To be honest, I rarely change my picks after my initial leans. I watch tape but I usually stick with my initial gut. Sometimes I won't bet a fight because of watching tape but I rarely change my initial lean.

And while we're bringing up old fights, I bet Cody last fight. I didn't have tape to justify it I just thought Cody would whoop Cruz because I thought Cruz was aging (body wise) and that the odds were out of line.

Conversely, I initially leaned Ronda (mistake) but just shrunk my bet on her after watching Nunes.

I don't think it's necessarily right but I feel like I lose more when I don't just take my gut.
 
I've decided I'm betting BJ. It's a little bit of an emotional pick because I love him but I do think there are some things in his favor. First, he got rid of that damn striking coach from the Edgar fight. He is back with Parillo and spending some time at Jackson's. I like that he's getting back to what worked for him. Whether he has the cardio or not, I don't know but he does still have legit ways of winning. He's still a world class BJJ practitioner and his striking has always been sharp under Parillo. Add that to the fact that he got some real training partners at Jackson and got to spar, I think we could see a good BJ well worth the over 3 to 1 odds.

I think Yair is certainly talented and has a better chance of winning, but I think BJ's odds are worse than they should be based on ring rust and his last performance.
 
TimCoreCombat said:
I've decided I'm betting BJ. It's a little bit of an emotional pick because I love him but I do think there are some things in his favor. First, he got rid of that damn striking coach from the Edgar fight. He is back with Parillo and spending some time at Jackson's. I like that he's getting back to what worked for him. Whether he has the cardio or not, I don't know but he does still have legit ways of winning. He's still a world class BJJ practitioner and his striking has always been sharp under Parillo. Add that to the fact that he got some real training partners at Jackson and got to spar, I think we could see a good BJ well worth the over 3 to 1 odds.

I think Yair is certainly talented and has a better chance of winning, but I think BJ's odds are worse than they should be based on ring rust and his last performance.
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you could be right, cagerank thinks there is a 93% chance penn wins lol

http://cagerank.com/G0aD.Hqa9/BJ-Penn-vs-Yair-Rodriguez
 
I've decided I'm betting BJ. It's a little bit of an emotional pick because I love him but I do think there are some things in his favor. First, he got rid of that damn striking coach from the Edgar fight. He is back with Parillo and spending some time at Jackson's. I like that he's getting back to what worked for him. Whether he has the cardio or not, I don't know but he does still have legit ways of winning. He's still a world class BJJ practitioner and his striking has always been sharp under Parillo. Add that to the fact that he got some real training partners at Jackson and got to spar, I think we could see a good BJ well worth the over 3 to 1 odds.

I think Yair is certainly talented and has a better chance of winning, but I think BJ's odds are worse than they should be based on ring rust and his last performance.
 
Pesta doesn't have much standing though that's a concern. Alexey is very aggressive from the opening bell to the end so this will be a test for how good Pesta's defense and toughness. If there's a finish I think it's the Boa Constrictor.

Def a HW decision if Pesta does win, as Alexey is a comfortable grappler if he gets put on his back but there's a bit of question mark about how he will perform at an advanced age with recurring knee issues (I think that's what put him out for so long).

Lots of diff factors to consider. It would have to be good odds.
 
Based on the current odds and the over odds, think we can get a good line on Caraway +3.5?
 
iGnP said:
Based on the current odds and the over odds, think we can get a good line on Caraway +3.5?
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I'd much rather play Rivera dec. I'm not saying Caraway can't win a round, but if Jimmy shuts him out that wouldn't surprise me one bit.
 
mkess101 said:
I'd much rather play Rivera dec. I'm not saying Caraway can't win a round, but if Jimmy shuts him out that wouldn't surprise me one bit.
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That's kinda why I was asking. I'll probably be on whichever pays better
 
iGnP said:
That's kinda why I was asking. I'll probably be on whichever pays better
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Caraway +3.5 will pay better I'm guessing. Probably +140ish. Rivera dec will be ballpark evens I'd imagine.

I'll still play Rivera dec. I think this fight ends that way 60% of the time minimum, maybe even 70%. Caraway won't hit TD'S and he's just not good enough standing imo. But he's good enough to survive and not get overwhelmed.
 
mkess101 said:
Caraway +3.5 will pay better I'm guessing. Probably +140ish. Rivera dec will be ballpark evens I'd imagine.

I'll still play Rivera dec. I think this fight ends that way 60% of the time minimum, maybe even 70%. Caraway won't hit TD'S and he's just not good enough standing imo. But he's good enough to survive and not get overwhelmed.
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The more I think about this fight the more I plan on hitting Rivera dec and just hedging after round 1 if I'm worried. Barring a 5 minute blanketing of a first round for Caraway, hard to envision him not being + odds after the first even if he does win the round
 
mkess101 said:
Caraway +3.5 will pay better I'm guessing. Probably +140ish. Rivera dec will be ballpark evens I'd imagine.

I'll still play Rivera dec. I think this fight ends that way 60% of the time minimum, maybe even 70%. Caraway won't hit TD'S and he's just not good enough standing imo. But he's good enough to survive and not get overwhelmed.
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Yea for sure I'd be on it at +140 but think it'll be closer to +100
 
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