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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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Not taking sides, certainly no harm in studying tape to get a better read on fighters or just knowing how generally they do, If it works it works, there is no right or wrong or 'system' imo

Now let me round up my 6 break downs with tape....
 
 
Co-Main event is Caraway Vs Rivera:

Rivera is a force to be reckon with in the UFC Bantamweight division. I had predicted for Rivera to take the belt from Cruz(predicting Cruz to have beaten Garbrandt) but even now that Garbrandt beat Cruz and has the belt, I still think Rivera will be champ beating whoever is in front of him.

Rivera is a BIG Bantamweight that has the strength, speed, technique, and a great gas tank, Rivera is a complete MMA fighter. No one wanted to fight Rivera when he joined the UFC as he was on a 15 fight win streak. Upon joining the UFC Rivera is 4-0 with his latest win an easy victory against Faber who IMHO has always been ranked in the top 5. He made Faber look like a chump.

I don't have much to say about Caraway. He's an OK fighter but he'll never beat anyone in the top 5. All I can say is that he has good submission game should the fight get to the ground but I don't see how he can take Rivera down as Faber couldn't do this and I believe Faber has much better wrestling than Caraway.

Rivera will again make this look easy to extend his record to 21-1 and will either fight Dillashaw, Cruz or Garbrandt depending who the UFC will give the next title shot to.

Rivera is paying $1.40 which are really decent odds, I would have expected $1.20 or below. I know my #1 rule is to never bet before the fight starts but this is one of the rare exceptions. I have stacks on Rivera on a single bet but you could possibly put him into a "sure win" multi - Good Luck

@richieknowsufc
 
Joseph Budden said:
Powell looks like shit based off Lookin For A Fight clips
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Yup not seen the lines yet but reckon klose will be too pricey, that guys a beast he picked up guys with one arm during clinch exchanges...twice.
 
Ukram said:
emboldened and underlined my fav picks;

Cyril vs Dmitry
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-9#post-125715375

Bojan vs Joachim
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-10#post-125716415

Sherman vs Walt
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-10#post-125718267

Devin vs Klose
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-11#post-125719567

Jones vs Nina
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-11#post-125720847

Alex vs Tony
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-11#post-125723167
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You're always the 1st to do your homework. Anyways I agree and lean towards most of the underlined. However I think Cyril/Dmitry is going to be a HW bum fight but the others I have a bit of clarity on. Just waiting for odds to justify the plays and I'm set for the card.
 
EzFlyer said:
sure he has, he was taking will brooks down for a couple rounds. man, i'm still catching up, but i suggest you slow your roll on lauzon here, this is NOT an easy fight for either guy, let alone for the one you have to lay juice.
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Brooks popped his knee in the first round of that fight though. Definitely played a huge factor in how rounds 2-5 played out.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Personally unless its someone im really clued up on i always watch tape and even then i still watch tape. I need to watch tape on rivera caraway still but if the undercard odds came out now id bet rivera + who else im waiting to play without watching tape on rivera as i know him really well. Normally thats a no no for me tho but theres odd exceptions.
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Just further to my post above tho, is it just me or is it pretty rare for you to change your mind after watching tape? I find maybe 1/10 times i change my mind after watching tape so i can see how people can do it without watching tape. Last time i changed my mind was when i was going to bet on Camozzi to beat Kelly. After watching tape tho Kelly was no where near as bad as i thought and i actually leaned Kelly. Of course it can be invaluable tho my initial gut feel on Borg Smolka was no idea pick 'em. But after watching tape i strongly favoured Borg.
 
Is there any evidence that Rivera can stop Caraway's TDs? Or are we just basing this on supposedly Faber being a better TD artist than Caraway and Rivera's credentials?
 
OneWarrior1 said:
Is there any evidence that Rivera can stop Caraway's TDs? Or are we just basing this on supposedly Faber being a better TD artist than Caraway and Rivera's credentials?
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He has defended 11/11 takedowns in the UFC (against Muhnoz and Faber), has a decent wrestling background and good body type for wrestling. I'm not sure what evidence you are looking for though.
 
vkram said:
He has defended 11/11 takedowns in the UFC (against Muhnoz and Faber), has a decent wrestling background and good body type for wrestling. I'm not sure what evidence you are looking for though.
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Yea he's 100% TDD in the UFC but neither Faber nor Muhnoz has great TD's as far as numbers goes, fairly sure their accuracy is low and Faber got his leg fucked up halfway through the fight.

I think the best evidence is that Rivera looks good defending TD's in general, probably wouldn't go undefeated during 19 fights since 2009 against mostly fairly high level opponents without some solid TDD and seems very athletic and well built to defend takedowns.

I really think we need to consider the 19 fight winstreak against four UFC opponents, a bunch of opponents that later ended up being in the UFC and a bunch more of high level regional talent. He's not a can crusher, he's well rounded and he has won mostly decisions. This is the kind of guy who just doesn't fuck up very much.
 
Slohog said:
Yea he's 100% TDD in the UFC but neither Faber nor Muhnoz has great TD's as far as numbers goes, fairly sure their accuracy is low and Faber got his leg fucked up halfway through the fight.

I think the best evidence is that Rivera looks good defending TD's in general, probably wouldn't go undefeated during 19 fights since 2009 against mostly fairly high level opponents without some solid TDD and seems very athletic and well built to defend takedowns.

I really think we need to consider the 19 fight winstreak against four UFC opponents, a bunch of opponents that later ended up being in the UFC and a bunch more of high level regional talent. He's not a can crusher, he's well rounded and he has won mostly decisions. This is the kind of guy who just doesn't fuck up very much.
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I agree. I think I've heard someone on Vivisection or somewhere say that the fact that he wasn't the most exciting fighter on the regional scene with a bunch of decisions helped him develop. Some fighters might get a bunch of finishes and get signed up with UFC without having developed their game, whilst Jimmie looks very well rounded and has fought a good level of competition before coming into UFC.
 
I think I quite like Pesta by decision. Oleinik gassed hard in his last fight after a dominant first round which may have been due to him coming off a long injury lay off but he is also 39. Pesta has been working with the Blackzillians recently and is very young (26) for a HW. Wrestling is probably the strongest part of his game but he should be making improvements in stand up too. I do remember his gassing vs Lewis though after repeatedly taking him down and getting finished in the third. He is likely to be an underdog due to his underwhelming UFC run so there should be some value on him.
 
vkram said:
I think I quite like Pesta by decision. Oleinik gassed hard in his last fight after a dominant first round which may have been due to him coming off a long injury lay off but he is also 39. Pesta has been working with the Blackzillians recently and is very young (26) for a HW. Wrestling is probably the strongest part of his game but he should be making improvements in stand up too. I do remember his gassing vs Lewis though after repeatedly taking him down and getting finished in the third. He is likely to be an underdog due to his underwhelming UFC run so there should be some value on him.
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Taking a monster HW like BB down over and over cos he just stands back up would tire anyone out pretty much. Oleinik's gas dropped out of his arse after r1 and didnt he spend most that round on top?
 
Sham5916910 said:
Taking a monster HW like BB down over and over cos he just stands back up would tire anyone out pretty much. Oleinik's gas dropped out of his arse after r1 and didnt he spend most that round on top?
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Yeah he did, I think one judge scored it a 10-8 for him too. it was a very high paced round though.
 
vkram said:
I think I quite like Pesta by decision. Oleinik gassed hard in his last fight after a dominant first round which may have been due to him coming off a long injury lay off but he is also 39. Pesta has been working with the Blackzillians recently and is very young (26) for a HW. Wrestling is probably the strongest part of his game but he should be making improvements in stand up too. I do remember his gassing vs Lewis though after repeatedly taking him down and getting finished in the third. He is likely to be an underdog due to his underwhelming UFC run so there should be some value on him.
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Eyeing the same play myself
 
Jeez...I just read through five pages of Jouban and Perry...what fight is that on this card?
 
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