UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Joseph Budden]

you're seriously underestimating held, imo.

We'll see, many said the same when I was arguing for Diego. I admittedly don't think very highly of his current game (no idea where his potential lies atm). If he does well here I'll eat my dust, but I feel good about Lauzon decisively winning this fight

 

[EzFlyer]

What intangibles? And how is this a mirror match? Held will get crushed in the clinch, and has shown no definitive proof he can wrestle someone the calibur of Lauzon for 3 rounds.

sure he has, he was taking will brooks down for a couple rounds. man, i'm still catching up, but i suggest you slow your roll on lauzon here, this is NOT an easy fight for either guy, let alone for the one you have to lay juice.

 

[Joseph Budden]

sure he has, he was taking will brooks down for a couple rounds. man, i'm still catching up, but i suggest you slow your roll on lauzon here, this is NOT an easy fight for either guy, let alone for the one you have to lay juice.

?? He never took Brooks down once iirc. He went hard on leglock in round 1 and than got crushed for the rest of the fight

 

[EzFlyer]

I felt Held/Sanchez in Mexico City was a worst match up compared to Held/Lauzon. Diego's pace, wrestling, heavy top control and high altitude was the perfect atmosphere for even a washed up Diego to beat someone like Held. Lauzon and Held are very similar fighters being BJJ grapplers with adequate striking. Held has shown that he slows down meanwhile Lauzon has also been in fights where he does not run on all cylinders or just doesn't seem to be there. I expect this fight to be all over the place standing, grappling, scrambles and maybe deadtime in stalemate positions. I think it will be a very competitve bout which can go either way. That being said, Held not having the best debut against a horrible match up in high altitude I think he will come in better prepared for a much needed win for him. I'm playing Held a bit here at dog odds and might add more if he becomes a bigger dog.

good point, i actually forgot about mexicity city.. that + adrenaline dump for ufc debut after going hard for a couple things definitely contributed to a harder gassing

 

[EzFlyer]

?? He never took Brooks down once iirc. He went hard on leglock in round 1 and than got crushed for the rest of the fight

After a three-punch combo hits nothing but air, Held charges a second time on Brooks to set up a clinch, pinning him to the fence, then switching from the single to a crafty inside trip. Held sits on top of Brooks' legs, cautiously trying to shut down the champ's chances of sliding back up the fence, as Brooks sits on his seat, idly punching Held in the ears. Brooks tries to explode back to his feet, but Held sucks him right back down and keeps him seated. “Ill Will” makes it back to his feet at the three-minute mark of the fight, then gets a trip takedown of his own. Naturally, Held throws his hips up immediately and tries to turn over to go belly down on Brooks' left leg. Brooks keeping his legs figure-foured to stop Held from separating them as he shifts on top, trying to break the leglock specialist's posture. Finally, the Pole gets a grapevine on Brooks' left leg and rocks back from a kneebar, but can't extend it far enough to get the tap. Brooks turns forward into his foe, landing some ground-and-pound while Held scrambles. Brooks re-establishes on top in guard with 10 seconds left, landing short punches.
Sherdog Scores
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Held
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Held
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Held
Read more at http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Be...-Updates-PlaybyPlay-95251#mLduU9wyYKGY8Jr4.99

he did lose 2-5, that's true, i thought he had a better second round, but nope, brooks started to take over in the 2nd, so i'm glad i rechecked that.

but you were still wrong about no takedowns =P

 

[MMAJay]

Yep. Posting his website gives him backlinks. Weird world we live in.


More like "good lord there's actually people that exist who are retarded enough to pay a known scammer and sociopathic weirdo those prices"

A huge reddit thread exposing him as a scammer with severe mental problems appears on the first page when you Google his name or website, yet people are still dumb enough to give him money.

I recall a forum thread somewhere, where a guy tried to find a girl. After they found her, everybody was typing her whole name in every post, so the link came up first on google if you typed her name
We should just do that, by calling out "Lucy Fury the scammer"

 

[Joseph Budden]

After a three-punch combo hits nothing but air, Held charges a second time on Brooks to set up a clinch, pinning him to the fence, then switching from the single to a crafty inside trip. Held sits on top of Brooks' legs, cautiously trying to shut down the champ's chances of sliding back up the fence, as Brooks sits on his seat, idly punching Held in the ears. Brooks tries to explode back to his feet, but Held sucks him right back down and keeps him seated. “Ill Will” makes it back to his feet at the three-minute mark of the fight, then gets a trip takedown of his own. Naturally, Held throws his hips up immediately and tries to turn over to go belly down on Brooks' left leg. Brooks keeping his legs figure-foured to stop Held from separating them as he shifts on top, trying to break the leglock specialist's posture. Finally, the Pole gets a grapevine on Brooks' left leg and rocks back from a kneebar, but can't extend it far enough to get the tap. Brooks turns forward into his foe, landing some ground-and-pound while Held scrambles. Brooks re-establishes on top in guard with 10 seconds left, landing short punches.
Sherdog Scores
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Held
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Held
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Held
Read more at http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Be...-Updates-PlaybyPlay-95251#mLduU9wyYKGY8Jr4.99

he did lose 2-5, that's true, i thought he had a better second round, but nope, brooks started to take over in the 2nd, so i'm glad i rechecked that.

but you were still wrong about no takedowns =P

OK he got one takedown lol but I don't put it past Held to have a good first round. Said he would vs Diego and while Joe is a fast starter too, I wouldn't be surprised if first round is close and than we see who has more attrition and a deeper skillset in the later rounds which I think will be Joe.

fwiw, I rewatched round 1 of the Brooks fight and once Held does but Brooks on his butt against the fence, he looks completely lost for 2 mins of leg hugging before Brooks is back up. Not exactly changing my view on Held

 

[MMAJay]

Yep, Magny was as high as +500 after R2. Got in .22u at +450 and .4u at +500. I would have done more if I did not live bet him after R1 also at +140

Got Magny DEC after 2nd @ +900

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Got Magny DEC after 2nd @ +900

Nice. That's awesome

 

[Officer_Brown]

augusto mendes vs frankie saenz.

i think saenz will be the favorite here but I favor mendes. if this fight goes to the ground mendes will dominate (bjj world champ). mendes's striking looked sharp though before cody cleaned his clock. but the question is how good is mendes wrestling.. can he get this fight to the ground (knowing that saenz has a wrestling backround?

 

[LEMONZEST]

Nice. That's awesome

You should post more man. Missing your picks, props, and input in the Non MMA betting thread too. Hope you had a killer 2016 ( i know you did)

 

[vkram]

augusto mendes vs frankie saenz.

i think saenz will be the favorite here but I favor mendes. if this fight goes to the ground mendes will dominate (bjj world champ). mendes's striking looked sharp though before cody cleaned his clock. but the question is how good is mendes wrestling.. can he get this fight to the ground (knowing that saenz has a wrestling backround?

Don't remember much of Mendes' striking vs Cody but Saenz has serviceable striking from what I remember. Saenz has solid wrestling so I guess him by decision or Mendes by sub IMO, all depending on the lines.

 

[raketmannen]

We'll see, many said the same when I was arguing for Diego. I admittedly don't think very highly of his current game (no idea where his potential lies atm). If he does well here I'll eat my dust, but I feel good about Lauzon decisively winning this fight

You can't compare the diego fight with this one. I bet diego aswell, his agression style, his defense on the ground and his insane cardio, which clearly was an even bigger advantage when the fight took place in Mexico. Held got there 9 days before the fight to get acclimated I believe. In the first 4 minutes of the fight held was outstriking diego. Then he went for that choke, which could have ended the fight unless diego wasnt a fucking ninja, after that he gassed hard and lost the fight. He is not the first one to underestimate the altitude.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

so for people betting lauzon -- i'd recommend maybe live betting him? held is the better wrestler/grappler when he's fresh and they're pretty close on the feet, imo. if i knew held's cardio would be better than it was against sanchez i'd say he is an easy pick, but yea, that freakin cardio is bad. it's a really intriguing matchup.

Good call, planning on LBing J Lau after round 1 depending on how it goes

 

[Jae Gibbz]

You should post more man. Missing your picks, props, and input in the Non MMA betting thread too. Hope you had a killer 2016 ( i know you did)

I will try. Towards the end of summer, I felt like I was giving too much time to this and eventually cut back a little bit with little to no impact on my success (I have been more active reading the forums recently tho). During that time, I decided to cut out 99% of non-MMA betting because I noticed I was either a tiny bit better than breakeven or losing, so you most likely won't see me posting in the non-MMA thread lol (I haven't read it in months). Those are pretty much the main reasons for me not posting as much. Oh, I also got limited not once, but twice on my favorite book... that was a pretty big reason... lol

But yeah, I had a great 2016 and I hope you and everybody else did. Well over 100 units in just MMA

 

[Buddy Brown]

I recall a forum thread somewhere, where a guy tried to find a girl. After they found her, everybody was typing her whole name in every post, so the link came up first on google if you typed her name
We should just do that, by calling out "Lucy Fury the scammer"

Good idea.

Luca Fury the scammer.
Furys Fight Picks the scammer.

 

[Buddy Brown]

I have made a point on how pathetic you are.

The original point I was making when talking with Brick is you shouldn't judge someone on whether or not they watch tape, cause he has watched tape and made bets as atrocious as Perry over Jouban. If he wants to act like you can't be taken seriously without watching tape, that was the counter argument I laid out.

And than low and behold, the old guy with a family who hates his life so much he consistently fights with single 20 year olds on a forum has to join in.

Radiohead is the greatest band ever to me from my objective point of view. I'm allowed to have an opinion I can debate, seems pretty normal.

I make music using Logic Pro on my macbook. So let this be a lesson. You've assumed its laughable Kanye is a legend when you don't listen to rap. You assume I don't even play an instrument for literally no reason at all. You should do some self reflection man, you are one of the most braggadocious, ignorant people i've ever seen on here (trolling teens included).

And just one last time since months later you are still so ignorant you insist on acting correct, its FACT Kanye is a legend. Whether you like his music or not, anyone who isn't a complete retard like you and actually follows hip hop knows this. Its not debatable in the same way 2pac being a legend is not debatable

We've all been wrong before. You don't even post your bets so criticising others so strongly, especially when they're profitable, is just not helpful at all. Betting Sage over Gall was WAY worse than Perry over Jouban. My reasons for betting Perry were better than the reasons you bet Sage (a 20 year old white belt) over a great grappler, so for sure tone it down a little. Again, being aggressive and hypocritical won't make you learn from your mistakes and evolve as a bettor, which is what this forum is all about. Not being sanctimonious and starting mindless, hateful arguments.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Betting Sage over Gall was worse than Perry over Jouban. My reasons for betting Perry were better than the reasons you bet Sage (a 20 year old white belt) over a great grappler, so for sure tone it down. Again, being aggressive and hypocritical won't make you learn from your mistakes and evolve as a bettor, which is what this forum is all about. Not being sanctimonious and starting mindless, hateful arguments.

Last sentence talks about not wanting to be sanctimonious and start mindless arguments, while entire paragraph before it resorts to "your bet was dumber than mine" argument....

 

[Buddy Brown]

Last sentence talks about not wanting to be sanctimonious and start mindless arguments, while entire paragraph before it resorts to "your bet was dumber than mine" argument....

Yeah but that's the argument you started. We've all made stupid bets. We can't predict how a fighter is going to look on a certain night, we can only go off tape so we're all going to be epicly wrong every now and then. It's about learning from your mistakes and your long term results. Pointing out when people have been wrong just isn't helpful at all and makes you look like you don't know what you're talking about betting-wise.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yeah but that's the argument you started. We've all made stupid bets. We can't predict how a fighter is going to look on a certain night, we can only go off tape so we're all going to be epicly wrong every now and then. It's about learning from your mistakes and your long term results. Pointing out when people have been wrong just isn't helpful at all and makes you look like you don't know what you're talking about betting-wise.

Na. The argument I started is stated clear as day in what you quoted. Just because you feel you have to watch tape on everything, doesn't mean those talking fights without doing so dk what they're talking about. Made the example of you watching tape and losing bet showing that watching tape doesn't always equate to good arguments. You and Bumlivian really took that to heart, apparently lol