UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[iGnP]

o1.5 is probably the best way to play the fight

 

[Roads55]

I have some small reservations about how BJ will handle the weight cut at his age also. but as I said I'm predominantly on the under for line movement, I see it as less likely for the under price to drift than shorten, for reasons I stated earlier.
for straight up picks I guess bj by sub or yair rnd 3/4/5 props depending on the price, but I would have to do some actual research first

Yair vs Penn is dog or pass imo. I think it would be stupid to lay any unit on Yair at current odds. Penn has fought absolute killers his whole career. Now he gets someone who is barely top 10 and still very green. It just not worth it. If u wanna play juiced boi then play Rivera.

depends on the price though. yair's ML was 1.25 a day or 2 ago, I took that and am already in profit if I want to freeroll, albeit for a small amount atm. yair's still pretty green but he's already had 5 ufc fights and is only 24, an age where talented fighters make huge strides from fight to fight.

anyone know where yair is training? doesn't he train at jackson's also??

 

[Oblivian]

First round was close but def Helds, and than Held gonna Held. He went all in on a gulliotine, it failed, and he fell apart as he's prone to do when he can't catch that early sub he always goes all in on.

Lauzon is going to outstrike him, out wrestle him, and just like Diego he's too good at jits to get caught.

I actually kind of regret not doing more than 2.2u at -110

The Held that fought Sarnavskiy and Jansen (2nd fight) would give a strong performing Lauzon a hell of a fight. Diego was a really bad matchup and I can see arguments for Lauzon, but there are a couple areas Held can exploit for sure. If they engage in a lot of scrambles (which I think they will), Held can end up on top quite a bit. I'm also not so sure Lauzon will have a cardio advantage here where it was very clear Diego would.

 

[wack3d]

anyone know where yair is training? doesn't he train at jackson's also??

not for this fight

 

[Sham5916910]

Anyone bd sergio moraga? I will watch tape but few days away yet. Im thinking good fight for pettis tho. Moraga looked pretty bad last time out and suffers from low output. Sergio can be hit but moraga lacks power and his td's suck. Sergio also has a 3 inch reach advantage. Sergio is prone to lapses tho he lapsed against hobar benoit and caceres and twice it cost him. He is very young tho perhaps he has now matured as a fighter. But his best win is over a retiring cariaso. Moraga up until his last fight had only ever lost to dodson dj and jb. Guess with output alone you have to favour sergio.

 

[Sham5916910]

Wonder what sergio dec will pay

 

[Joseph Budden]

The Held that fought Sarnavskiy and Jansen (2nd fight) would give a strong performing Lauzon a hell of a fight. Diego was a really bad matchup and I can see arguments for Lauzon, but there are a couple areas Held can exploit for sure. If they engage in a lot of scrambles (which I think they will), Held can end up on top quite a bit. I'm also not so sure Lauzon will have a cardio advantage here where it was very clear Diego would.

I think winning some scrambles is literally all Held has going for him here.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Wonder what sergio dec will pay

Based on moneyline + over it won't be anything crazy. Below +150 for sure. But thats what i'll be eyeing as my play here.

 

[Sham5916910]

Based on moneyline + over it won't be anything crazy. Below +150 for sure. But thats what i'll be eyeing as my play here.

Yeah moraga only stopped by dodson that was a cut too and dj sub in r5. Sergio dont have a finish in the ufc

 

[Oblivian]

I think winning some scrambles is literally all Held has going for him here.

I honestly think that will be the bulk of the fight though.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I honestly think that will be the bulk of the fight though.

Na no way. Maybe in round 1, but after that Held is lost. He can do the same shit vs some of those lower level Bellator guys, but Lauzon isn't going to lose scrambles in 2 and 3. He is a high level black belt himself. I wanna rewatch the Miller fight cause I forgot how Miller got back to the feet off some of those tds, but Held is soooo over rated. Miller is twice the scrambler from bottom Held is.

 

[Oblivian]

I'll be surprised to see Lauzon win in any way but a close decision.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I'll be surprised to see Lauzon win in any way but a close decision.

Prepare to be surprised cause I think its highly likely Held gets crushed just as bad as he did vs Diego

 

[Slohog]

Anyone bd sergio moraga? I will watch tape but few days away yet. Im thinking good fight for pettis tho. Moraga looked pretty bad last time out and suffers from low output. Sergio can be hit but moraga lacks power and his td's suck. Sergio also has a 3 inch reach advantage. Sergio is prone to lapses tho he lapsed against hobar benoit and caceres and twice it cost him. He is very young tho perhaps he has now matured as a fighter. But his best win is over a retiring cariaso. Moraga up until his last fight had only ever lost to dodson dj and jb. Guess with output alone you have to favour sergio.

Watching tape on that one right now. Had a fairly good idea about how I wanted to play it before I watched and that went out the window fairly fast. A lot of the fights looked a fair bit different from what I remembered and some other factors seems like a proper cluster fuck too.

I think I might be on Pettis, but I want to see some interviews with Moraga before I decide for sure. I think he can win the fight if he's somehow back to normal, but looking dumb vs Joe B and horrible in general (tentative, mostly) vs Nicolau in addition to short notice, his social media having been more or less on black out for a bit and training at MMA-Lab where half the gym has a fight at this card probably means that their strategy guys won't spend time watching tape with him as much as normal so I dunno.

Pettis just looks more active, more skilled in most areas and his chin is not THAT bad (it's not good, but it's not a huge liability against non-strikers I don't think).

That said I have no play yet, I think I want a slightly better price unless I find something at weight ins or in interviews that makes me feel better before I hit the trigger.

The over looks fairly enticing too, but same deal there. Might just pass, or at least just play it small.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Can't wait for Yair to get a step up so I could fade him. He was rumored to fight Choi at one point but he claimed he was injured and dodged a bullet there.

I would've unloaded.

Yair has a nice learning curve ahead of him tho because he's super athletic and creative but that's also a curse because he's got no basic fundamentals and just throws shit for the sake of throwing shit. He will take 1-2 losses down the road til he realizes that he needs to scale back some of his crazy moves.

No idea what BJ has left in his arsenal. If he can take the back that would be his avenue to victory.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Penn/Yair O2.5 will be one of my biggest bets this card. Have 2.66u at -110 atm.

 

[Ukram]

Found some tape on Cyril asker
7-2 fighter, claims to have a good chin, athletic, trains bjj, boxing, wrestling evenings.

ufc debut- his ko loss




Dmitrys ufc debut


Dmitry looked ok in the first 2-3 minutes but then simply gassed, by r2 he was done. All his wins were previously against guys with more Ls then Ws and all r1, I think dmitry is just too big and heavy and can really only go for 5 minutes. Cyril has beaten better guys on his record (guys with much more Ws then Ls), gone to r2 and r3 before and shown he can win in those late rounds.

Not that one can trust either hw here but Cyril has shown ability to scramble and get take downs and take guys backs and land gnp or a rear naked choke and has at least gone to r2 and r3 few times.

I like Cyril here, but probably more if he makes it out of r1, Dmitry r1 finish a good hedge otherwise.

 

[mkess101]

Prepare to be surprised cause I think its highly likely Held gets crushed just as bad as he did vs Diego

If he completely gasses like that for sure he will. But that's the only way he's "getting crushed".

Creepy Joe can win. Hell I might even favor him. But I really doubt he makes it look easy. He's never, EVER been shy about getting into scrambles and of course Held will oblige.

Yeah if you think Held gasses like that again then Joe is for sure the bet. Otherwise it's gonna be a competitive fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

^^^^with you Ukram. My lean on that one is def Asker. Don't think he looks that bad, while that Dmitry dude looked like a bum especially after gassing

 

[Joseph Budden]

If he completely gasses like that for sure he will. But that's the only way he's "getting crushed".

Creepy Joe can win. Hell I might even favor him. But I really doubt he makes it look easy. He's never, EVER been shy about getting into scrambles and of course Held will oblige.

Yeah if you think Held gasses like that again then Joe is for sure the bet. Otherwise it's gonna be a competitive fight.

If Miller couldn't get anything going off his back, not sure why anyone would trust Held to do so. And Held has no other avenue to victory. I can def see a Lauzon stoppage or 30-27 and would be more surprised by a close decision than a clear cut J-lo win.