UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Joseph Budden]

Off the top of my head, he looked gunshy and just terrible in general in the Dunham, Iaquinta and Johnson fights. He's also been in tonnes of wars and can completely fall off a cliff at any moment.

Dunham was a bad performance from him can't defend it much, even if solid chance Dunham's skillset was the reason Lauzon looked that way. Def not gunshy vs Iaquinta, don't remember the Johnson fight.

Not expecting him to fall off a cliff when his last two fights were great performances

 

[MMAJay]

Know my two man play. Good odds pls

PM?

 

[weedreference]

I have no idea why there seems to be so much confidence in Lauzon. I agree with Oblivian that the only way he his winning is a close decision. I actually give Held the edge on the feet. His boxing is massively improved recently, he has better range on his punches, and there is more room for improvement for him in between fights. Both have poor movement and countering... overall the fight is as much a mirror match as it gets, but Held has the better intangibles at this point.

The main thing I am concerned about is that, like Miller, he seems to have no get-ups due to his reliance on BJJ. But from the perspective of the judges, the grappling could go either way in this one.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I have no idea why there seems to be so much confidence in Lauzon. I agree with Oblivian that the only way he his winning is a close decision. I actually give Held the edge on the feet. His boxing is massively improved recently, he has better range on his punches, and there is more room for improvement for him in between fights. Both have poor movement and countering... overall the fight is as much a mirror match as it gets, but Held has the better intangibles at this point.

The main thing I am concerned about is that, like Miller, he seems to have no get-ups due to his reliance on BJJ. But from the perspective of the judges, the grappling could go either way in this one.

What intangibles? And how is this a mirror match? Held will get crushed in the clinch, and has shown no definitive proof he can wrestle someone the calibur of Lauzon for 3 rounds.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Held tranes Bellator.
Lauzon tranes UFC.

Simple enough breakdown.

 

[Oblivian]

Held used to be a guy that just dove for kneebars and needed submissions, but I honestly don't know how someone can still think that. His last three wins were basically positional dominance on the ground. Sure, he snagged the kneebar in the 3rdvs. Sarnavskiy, but that was after completely outgrappling Sarnavskiy. He's tightened up his wrestling quite a bit, but he also still uses the leg attacks to grab top position. He used to just go hard for the leg lock without regard for gaining position.

 

[Ukram]

Devin Powell last few fights here:



Drakkar Klose last few fights here:



Very little info on the net about either guy. Judging from tape on both guys, powell got lucky against tom and showed a limited skill set, tom got better positions on top, landed some gnp and controlled most of the fight yet still lost.

Klose on the other showed good power in his striking, ability to wrestle and land gnp from top. He also has some grappling YT vids from the past, even showed just how strong and powerful he is by lifting guys up with one arm here:


Klose su, I think he should be good to edge 2 rounds here and still look better then powell in most areas.

 

[Kimb0ftw]

Na no way. Maybe in round 1, but after that Held is lost. He can do the same shit vs some of those lower level Bellator guys, but Lauzon isn't going to lose scrambles in 2 and 3. He is a high level black belt himself. I wanna rewatch the Miller fight cause I forgot how Miller got back to the feet off some of those tds, but Held is soooo over rated. Miller is twice the scrambler from bottom Held is.

I just watched it yesterday, I feel like Lauzon won but it went to decision coin flip and judges gave it to Miller, Lauzon spent alot of time on top and did quite a bit of damage so it really baffles me that Miller ended up winning.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I just watched it yesterday, I feel like Lauzon won but it went to decision coin flip and judges gave it to Miller, Lauzon spent alot of time on top and did quite a bit of damage so it really baffles me that Miller ended up winning.

Yeah I thought Lauzon won. How did Miller get back to his feet after those tds? Maybe you can save me the tape watching since thats literally the only part I can't remember lol

 

[Ukram]

Ninas last 2 fights here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/justine-kish-vs-nina-ansaroff-ufc-195
https://www.ufc.tv/video/juliana-lima-vs-nina-ansaroff-ufc-fight-night

Jones last 2 fights here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/tecia-torres-vs-jocelyn-jones-lybarger-ufc-194
https://www.ufc.tv/video/randa-mark...ybarger-ufc-fight-night-macdonald-vs-thompson


2 female mma who prefer to strike, both shown weaknesses in the ground game and find it difficult to get back up with opponents on top, I would say Jones tends to get back to her feet a bit better and is the stronger and bigger fighter coming in though.

Jones is also a lead gym trainer in boxing, nina comes from a taekwonda background (3rd degree) but both have yet to show it well under the ufc banner.

Only thing I like in this fight are the overs, fight goes the distance. If I had to pick I think Nina via decision.

 

[Kimb0ftw]

tbh I cant remember, I was watching a ton of tapes on pettis and moraga as well so I cant say for sure. part of me thinks that he ended some rounds still on top and thats why I thought Lauzon won, judges can be so dumb sometimes its like we are watching different fights but they gave it to miller

 

[weedreference]

What intangibles? And how is this a mirror match? Held will get crushed in the clinch, and has shown no definitive proof he can wrestle someone the calibur of Lauzon for 3 rounds.

It's a mirror match because both are sub specialists with similar striking styles and physical attributes.

Why are you assuming Held will be desperate to get it to the ground?

Held is younger, hungrier, needs a win more (he's not a company man like Joe), and has more room for improvement.

 

[Joseph Budden]

It's a mirror match because both are sub specialists with similar striking styles and physical attributes.

Why are you assuming Held will be desperate to get it to the ground?

Held is younger, hungrier, needs a win more (he's not a company man like Joe), and has more room for improvement.

Not very similar in striking when i've never seen Held use muay thai while Joe is pretty beast in the clinch

Because what else can he do? Hes going outstrike Joe for 3 rounds? He can sprawl Joe's td attempts when Jim Miller couldn't and when lord knows Held has no problem being on his back? I just don't think so.

How is he hungrier? You're talking about a guy who has flaked out and done nothing more than once when hes run out of options. I don't see him as hungier at all, especially when tired or not he basically just handed Diego round 3 on a silver platter.

I also don't equate being younger to having more room for improvement. Plus its been 2-3 months since the fight with Diego? Based off Held's lengthy career and what we can gather from it, hes not going to take some massive leap in that time.

 

[Ukram]

Alex White last 2 fights
https://www.ufc.tv/video/alex-white-vs-artem-lobov-ufc-fight-night
https://www.ufc.tv/video/clay-collard-vs-alex-white-ufc-181

Tony martins last 2 fights
https://www.ufc.tv/video/tony-martin-vs-felipe-olivieri-ufc-fight-night
https://www.ufc.tv/video/leonardo-santos-vs-tony-martin-ufc-fight-night

Close fight really, white will want to strike while martins looking to get this fight to the ground probably during clinch exchanges or against the fence. Whites no slouch though and has shown the ability to throw up triangles and leg locks of his back and is active, he may out work martins here in r2 and r3 if the fight stays standing but just depends on martins cardio and take downs deeper in the fight.

I like martins su and think he gets his grinding style going more then white does. Martins su

 

[weedreference]

Not very similar in striking when i've never seen Held use muay thai while Joe is pretty beast in the clinch

Because what else can he do? Hes going outstrike Joe for 3 rounds? He can sprawl Joe's td attempts when Jim Miller couldn't and when lord knows Held has no problem being on his back? I just don't think so.

How is he hungrier? You're talking about a guy who has flaked out and done nothing more than once when hes run out of options. I don't see him as hungier at all, especially when tired or not he basically just handed Diego round 3 on a silver platter.

I also don't equate being younger to having more room for improvement. Plus its been 2-3 months since the fight with Diego? Based off Held's lengthy career and what we can gather from it, hes not going to take some massive leap in that time.

Fair enough, we'll agree to disagree. But I suggest watching the striking aspect of Held's last few fights. He's been more of a boxer and he's massively improved. I don't see any reason why that wouldn't continue.

 

[mkess101]

We'll see, but i'm fairly confident anyone who believes in your argument will be just as wrong as those who believed he'd beat Diego.

Like, 1u confident or 3u confident?

 

[Belgrade]

I can maybe see the logic for one or two bets on the main card but lets please avoid putting the big bucks on the undercard (after some tape watching it's awful for betting) as well as this held/lauzon matchup! I'd rather organize a community charity fund from the good cappers on this thread that can afford to spare a few bucks.

A small bet on Joes ML at -110 is fair because he's a veteran but now we should just stay away. Held had a bunch of hype coming into the ufc with some real quality wins. I don't if everyone on this thread follows bellator a bunch but I respect the heck out of fighters like Patricky Freire, Dave Jansen, Alexander Sarnavskiy, Derek Anderson as well the way he beat Ryan Healy (nasty knockout). These fighters all have given Held a bunch of looks so that I dont think Lauzon will bring something surprising to the table. He already beat a top wrestler like Jansen, someone with huge power like Patricky, volume striking/grit like Anderson, and finally a well-rounded overall MMA game like Alexander.

While its true Lauzon may not have as many holes as some of these guys he surely is not reliable MMA fighter at this point in his career and lets fights slips away because of the lack of volume he throws/plodding footwork/diminished speed-reflexes/overall disinterest if he dosent get the early finish.

Debuting against Diego Sanchez in the high altitude in Mexico can make anybody look bad but to completely discredit Helds past accomplishments and skills because of it is silly. He's not lost anywhere in the MMA game and has actually shown flashes of brilliance in striking/wrestling to complement his high level BJJ game. Marcin is still 24 years old young and i'm sure he's learned some valuable lessons in his debut.

Literally anything can happen in this fight including either fighter out-wrestling/subbing the other one or Lauzon with an early knockout/Held throwing more volume for a decision.

I like both guys alot and am rooting for them for the rest of their careers but it'd be hard to trust them against nearly anybody in the UFC at this point with my money. One things for certain and it's that Joe (with the amount of damage he's taken) is on the decline and Held is on the way up, however the steepness of each curve is impossible to tell.


I'll post the breakdown on the one or two bets I might do on this card later in the week.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Like, 1u confident or 3u confident?

2.2u at -110. If I could go back i'd make it 2.8u or 3.3u.

 

[mkess101]

2.2u at -110. If I could go back i'd make it 2.8u or 3.3u.

If I was forced to guess I think you win the bet, and at -110 I think you squeezed a little value out of it. I cap Joe -130 to -150, about where he is now. But won't be a cakewalk for him imo.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Jb have you watched Joe and held's fights recently or are you going off memory?