UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Joseph Budden]

Jb have you watched Joe and held's fights recently or are you going off memory?

Memory but if I don't get around to tape watching I doubt its a big deal. Hard to think my mind would change on anything. I've seen basically all of these dudes fights, and the Diego fight going exactly as I predicted instilled some confidence in my capping on Held against UFC fighters.

 

[mkess101]

I just watched it yesterday, I feel like Lauzon won but it went to decision coin flip and judges gave it to Miller, Lauzon spent alot of time on top and did quite a bit of damage so it really baffles me that Miller ended up winning.

Agree, I do think Joe beat Miller in the rematch.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Memory but if I don't get around to tape watching I doubt its a big deal. Hard to think my mind would change on anything. I've seen basically all of these dudes fights, and the Diego fight going exactly as I predicted instilled some confidence in my capping on Held against UFC fighters.

I suggest you rewatch tape, especially if you want to hit your 5 figure parlays lol.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I suggest you rewatch tape, especially if you want to hit your 5 figure parlays lol.

If I have time i'll rewatch their most recent fights, but I really don't think its a necessity when i've seen so many of their fights. fwiw I watched zero tape for Diego vs Held and I was spot on with how it would play out.

 

[Buddy Brown]

SMH @ anyone who argues a side without watching tape first. Cum on guys, that's rookie stuff.

 

[Joseph Budden]

SMH @ anyone who argues a side without watching tape first. Cum on guys, that's rookie stuff.

Whats worse. Not watching tape or watching tape and after wards making a bet like Perry over Jouban?

 

[maxim814]

Even if you think yair will win the odds are still too juiced to bet on this fight. As BrickTop said earlier Yair is reckless and falls on his back every fight... still dangerous fight for yair. I think ur making a rookie mistake here but who i am to tell you. If you have so strong faith in Yair better use him as a parlay material.

I appreciate your input man. I don't have alot of faith in BJ. Ill see how it plays out, I may have to learn from my mistakes

 

[maxim814]

betting on him or against him? i was watching non ufc tape on both christensen and bojan, i don't think it's a fight i can play unless the line is crazy. christensen is clearly more technical though, everywhere.

Against him. I just dont see him being a UFC Caliber guy. He looked like he was just swinging overhands in his entire UFC debut. Christensen is no world class MMA fighter but I believe he will have no problem with Bojan. I agree though, ill be waiting to see how the line is first.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Whats worse. Not watching tape or watching tape and after wards making a bet like Perry over Jouban?

Not watching tape is arguably still worse.

Arguing for a bet on Bec Rawlings for 200 pages only for this to happen, however, is DEFINITELY worse. Respectfully.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not watching tape is arguably still worse.

Arguing for a bet on Bec Rawlings for 200 pages only for this to happen, however, is DEFINITELY worse. Respectfully.

Not arguable. I don't think anyone is going to disagree not watching tape and perfectly predicting a fight is better than watching tape on Perry and being emboldened with confidence he could beat Jouban.

Bec won a round. Perry got tooled for 15 mins making it more than clear anyone confident in him had no idea what they were talking about

 

[LEMONZEST]

Sometimes you already have the info you need without tape.

Btw i still take bec all day v pvz. That shit was low %

 

[Buddy Brown]

Not arguable. I don't think anyone is going to disagree not watching tape and perfectly predicting a fight is better than watching tape on Perry and being emboldened with confidence he could beat Jouban.

Bec won a round. Perry got tooled for 15 mins making it more than clear anyone confident in him had no idea what they were talking about

Meh, not really. Jouban fought like a completely different fighter than he has in the past (and still got rocked in the first) and Perry just didn't show up. I don't regret that bet at all. I also argued for a bet on Waterson WAY more.

Don't act like you've never watched tape and still been completely off on a fight. Being delusional won't help you evolve as a bettor and learn from mistakes.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Meh, not really. Jouban was rocked in the first round and Perry just didn't show up. I also argued for a bet on Waterson way more.

Don't act like you've never watched tape and still been completely off on a fight. Being delusional won't help you evolve as a bettor and learn from mistakes.

Perry "didn't show up", yet you are talking about delusion

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[Buddy Brown]

Perry "didn't show up", yet you are talking about delusion

​

You're doing it again.

Perry usually throws volume, and after rocking Jouban in the first he hardly threw anything.

The main thing was Jouban fighting smart and following a game plan instead of, as he puts it, "putting on a show for the fans" (brawling and getting rocked or knocked out) like most of his fights. And before you say he did it against Belal, it's different. Belal is a point fighter and he STILL rocked Jouban in that fight.

Are you going to insult me for betting Cruz vs Cody? Nah, because that would be silly. Cody never showed he was capable of doing what he did on tape, so I have no regrets about betting Cruz whatsoever. Same thing.

 

[Shoulder]

Penn/Yair O2.5 will be one of my biggest bets this card. Have 2.66u at -110 atm.

You see little risk of BJ getting a sub or Yair landing something crazy in a super old BJ? I really have no idea how to play this one so I might just put a little on Bj sub...

 

[HumbleCoco]

I think everyone here is debating Lauzon/Held because we are all scared of the undercard and BJ, rightly so. I'm on the Held is a young fighter and I actually liked a lot of the performance in Mexico. He gassed and was positionally controlled by someone who is known well for that. He did the classic BJJ fighter mistake of hunting subs rather than looking dominant - even Stann remarked how he looked to be having success on the feet and should try to get back there. It's such an amazing fight to have as a young fighter - highlighted some of the gaps of his style and you know he's upped his cardio for the next fight.

The odds however are pretty much on point. Mayybbe I'll go with my gut and go Held but Lauzon has such a deep arsenal - I've watched tape but not yet thought about if he's got a viable gameplan he could pull out.

I'll try to go over some of the undercard over the weekend, see if anything jumps out. Shout out to Ukram for drudging through that already.

 

[spooNN]

I felt Held/Sanchez in Mexico City was a worst match up compared to Held/Lauzon. Diego's pace, wrestling, heavy top control and high altitude was the perfect atmosphere for even a washed up Diego to beat someone like Held. Lauzon and Held are very similar fighters being BJJ grapplers with adequate striking. Held has shown that he slows down meanwhile Lauzon has also been in fights where he does not run on all cylinders or just doesn't seem to be there. I expect this fight to be all over the place standing, grappling, scrambles and maybe deadtime in stalemate positions. I think it will be a very competitve bout which can go either way. That being said, Held not having the best debut against a horrible match up in high altitude I think he will come in better prepared for a much needed win for him. I'm playing Held a bit here at dog odds and might add more if he becomes a bigger dog.

 

[Agent Mulder]

You see little risk of BJ getting a sub or Yair landing something crazy in a super old BJ? I really have no idea how to play this one so I might just put a little on Bj sub...

Yeah I think Yair is active enough of his back to keep BJ honest if it gets there. Im also not sold on Yair as a finisher on the feet. Besides some low % move I dont see it happening. -110 was way better than i expected.

 

[vkram]

I felt Held/Sanchez in Mexico City was a worst match up compared to Held/Lauzon. Diego's pace, wrestling, heavy top control and high altitude was the perfect atmosphere for even a washed up Diego to beat someone like Held. Lauzon and Held are very similar fighters being BJJ grapplers with adequate striking. Held has shown that he slows down meanwhile Lauzon has also been in fights where he does not run on all cylinders or just doesn't seem to be there. I expect this fight to be all over the place standing, grappling, scrambles and maybe deadtime in stalemate positions. I think it will be a very competitve bout which can go either way. That being said, Held not having the best debut against a horrible match up in high altitude I think he will come in better prepared for a much needed win for him. I'm playing Held a bit here at dog odds and might add more if he becomes a bigger dog.

I tend to agree that Sanchez was a worse match up and he actually came in with a good game plan. I feel Lauzon will give Held more openings on the ground by being more aggressive himself.

 

[Sham5916910]

Held Sanchez = live betting for me.