UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[mkess101]

If Miller couldn't get anything going off his back, not sure why anyone would trust Held to do so. And Held has no other avenue to victory. I can def see a Lauzon stoppage or 30-27 and would be more surprised by a close decision than a clear cut J-lo win.

What makes you think Held ends up on his back? He's a better wrestler than Miller, and Joe doesn't have Diego's tdd. Odds are that at least early in the fight, Held takes Joe down. Not the other way around. Joe likes his guard game (with good reason) so TDD has never been a big priority for him. He outwrestled Miller but Jim has a similar mindset. That said, Held rolls for leglocks and stuff so from that POV I can see what you're getting at with Joe ending up on top, but I think it's more likely Held tries for traditional TD's early than that he's rolling for leglocks.

I like Joe's overall grappling game. He's ultra crafty. But Held is right there with him, UNLESS he gasses. Then...yeah. I'm gonna say elevation+UFC debut were the main culprits vs Diego. But...we'll see.

 

[Joseph Budden]

What makes you think Held ends up on his back? He's a better wrestler than Miller, and Joe doesn't have Diego's tdd. Odds are that at least early in the fight, Held takes Joe down. Not the other way around. Joe likes his guard game (with good reason) so TDD has never been a big priority for him. He outwrestled Miller but Jim has a similar mindset. That said, Held rolls for leglocks and stuff so from that POV I can see what you're getting at with Joe ending up on top, but I think it's more likely Held tries for traditional TD's early than that he's rolling for leglocks.

I like Joe's overall grappling game. He's ultra crafty. But Held is right there with him, UNLESS he gasses. Then...yeah. I'm gonna say elevation+UFC debut were the main culprits vs Diego. But...we'll see.

No idea what would lead you to believe hes a better wrestler than Miller who was just taking down Thiago Alves last fight. Held aint taking down Alves, not even close. I'd be pretty surprised if he out wrestled Lauzon who hasn't been outwrestled in what feels like awhile now and looked improved in that area vs Miller. I also think its ludicrous to think Lauzon is OK playing a guard game here vs Held. When was the last time Lauzon played guard against anyone, nevermind a guy whos only path to victory is scrambles and somehow getting top position?

Gassing or no gassing, I see nothing Held can do here but win early scrambles

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Held was doomed to begin with in the UFC with a leg lock style. He built everything around it.

Joe will give him another veteran UFC beat down.

Paul Sass, Marcin Bandel, Ian Entwhistle, Ryan Hall (soon), Paul Harris, anyone else?

 

[Ukram]

Bojan Mihajlovic HL reel beating lower tier guys

then here he is fighting ufc calibar in ngannou and losing in r1


Joachim HL reel here again beating average to high tier guys

his ufc debut here loosing in r2 from frankenstien


Bojan does have some bjj skills and heavy hands, but Joachim is the taller guy coming in and does show better technique, he also almost finished Frankenstein with his knee and he likes to do that move many times in the clinches and against the cage.

Joachim also has beaten much better opponents more recently in the past then Bojan and so far looked better skill wise against better ranked opponents and in his ufc debut, I like Joachim to get a win here.

 

[piglord]

Anyone bd sergio moraga? I will watch tape but few days away yet. Im thinking good fight for pettis tho. Moraga looked pretty bad last time out and suffers from low output. Sergio can be hit but moraga lacks power and his td's suck. Sergio also has a 3 inch reach advantage. Sergio is prone to lapses tho he lapsed against hobar benoit and caceres and twice it cost him. He is very young tho perhaps he has now matured as a fighter. But his best win is over a retiring cariaso. Moraga up until his last fight had only ever lost to dodson dj and jb. Guess with output alone you have to favour sergio.

sergio was beating both caceres and benoit before he got caught. benoit also hits like a truck so his margin for error was very small in that fight. i don't see moraga getting takedowns or getting the better of the standup. i think sergio is really improving, i love how he dealt with kelades who tried to pressure and grapplefuck him. i also think he's developing a style which is far more fundamentally sound than his older brother, you can't just pressure him into oblivion.

barring the two brain farts against caceres and benoit, sergio could easily be -300 here.

 

[mkess101]

No idea what would lead you to believe hes a better wrestler than Miller who was just taking down Thiago Alves last fight. Held aint taking down Alves, not even close. I'd be pretty surprised if he out wrestled Lauzon who hasn't been outwrestled in what feels like awhile now and looked improved in that area vs Miller. I also think its ludicrous to think Lauzon is OK playing a guard game here vs Held. When was the last time Lauzon played guard against anyone, nevermind a guy whos only path to victory is scrambles and somehow getting top position?

Gassing or no gassing, I see nothing Held can do here but win early scrambles

Alves post USADA cutting to LW isn't anywhere near the same guy. Hell just looking at him was a shock to me leading up to that fight. At this point hell yes Held could and probably would take him down imo. Lauzon was outwrestled pretty easily by Dunham not that long ago iirc. Held even when fresh isn't the wrestler Dunham is, I'm not claiming that. But I think Joe kind of accepted the TD vs Dunham and played guard a lot in that fight. Held when not gassed is good enough to take Joe down. Joe inherently trusts his guard, because it's good. It can be a blessing and a curse for guys in MMA with really good guards. Nate Diaz lost multiple fights awhile back vs worse guys than him because he allowed TD's and then got laid on. He knew he was never in any actual danger, but he gave rounds away. Joe won't just lay there, he'll be active. But I do think his TDD is average at best.

I'm not saying I'm betting Held. I'll probably just wait and see what the best prop odds are and go from there. I think the fight is capped pretty accurately honestly. Joe as a very slight favorite. No value either way imo.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Alves post USADA cutting to LW isn't anywhere near the same guy. Hell just looking at him was a shock to me leading up to that fight. At this point hell yes Held could and probably would take him down imo. Lauzon was outwrestled pretty easily by Dunham not that long ago iirc. Held even when fresh isn't the wrestler Dunham is, I'm not claiming that. But I think Joe kind of accepted the TD vs Dunham and played guard a lot in that fight. Held when not gassed is good enough to take Joe down. Joe inherently trusts his guard, because it's good. It can be a blessing and a curse for guys in MMA with really good guards. Nate Diaz lost multiple fights awhile back vs worse guys than him because he allowed TD's and then got laid on. He knew he was never in any actual danger, but he gave rounds away. Joe won't just lay there, he'll be active. But I do think his TDD is average at best.

I'm not saying I'm betting Held. I'll probably just wait and see what the best prop odds are and go from there. I think the fight is capped pretty accurately honestly. Joe as a very slight favorite. No value either way imo.

Na Dunham just pieced him up on the feet. You might wanna rewatch that one......

Again, its absolutely ludicrous to think Lauzon will just play guard here. Seems like a pretty smart guy, so hard to envision him being comfortable in the one spot Held can win. And you say this like Lauzon has played guard so many times lol but when was the last time he did?

 

[mkess101]

Na Dunham just pieced him up on the feet. You might wanna rewatch that one......

Again, its absolutely ludicrous to think Lauzon will just play guard here. Seems like a pretty smart guy, so hard to envision him being comfortable in the one spot Held can win. And you say this like Lauzon has played guard so many times lol but when was the last time he did?

He did a lot when he was younger. I need to rewatch fight with Evan. Didn't Dunham at least control him on the mat for a round or so?

I don't think Joe will just invite being put on his back and happy about it. I'm saying you're underrating Held's TD's a little and overrating Joe's TDD a little. And Joe likes scrambles. Not necessarily "playing guard", but getting into scrambles where he can show off his grappling. Against another guys who's that good at scrambling like Held is, Joe is at least as likely to end up on his back, if not more was my point.

 

[BatBoyJG]

I'm taking Held here. I am expecting to get a better price on him as well with people fading him after the Diego fight. Held does well when he fights guys that don't have a significant athletic edge on him.

Let's see who else is on Held.

 

[mkess101]

Held was doomed to begin with in the UFC with a leg lock style. He built everything around it.

Joe will give him another veteran UFC beat down.

Paul Sass, Marcin Bandel, Ian Entwhistle, Ryan Hall (soon), Paul Harris, anyone else?

Held has tried to go away from it as his primary style. We'll see if he's good enough in other areas to have success.

I do think Joe is rightfully a slight favorite. He's more proven against better competition. But Held's overall game isn't garbage. He looked awful after rd 1 vs Diego because he gassed hard. Before that he was winning the fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

He did a lot when he was younger. I need to rewatch fight with Evan. Didn't Dunham at least control him on the mat for a round or so?

I don't think Joe will just invite being put on his back and happy about it. I'm saying you're underrating Held's TD's a little and overrating Joe's TDD a little. And Joe likes scrambles. Not necessarily "playing guard", but getting into scrambles where he can show off his grappling. Against another guys who's that good at scrambling like Held is, Joe is at least as likely to end up on his back, if not more was my point.

Na the large portion of the fight was standing. At most, Dunham scored a td maybe at the end of a round, but I pretty clearly remember it being basically all striking

Maybe i'm underestimating Held's tds, but we'll see. I'd be pretty surprised if could out wrestle Joe for 3 rounds when that hasn't happened to him in God knows how long. If anyone backs Held, prepare to be frustrated when it becomes evident he isn't better than Joe in any area bar scrambling, and even that may only be the case in the first round.

 

[mkess101]

Na the large portion of the fight was standing. At most, Dunham scored a td maybe at the end of a round, but I pretty clearly remember it being basically all striking

Maybe i'm underestimating Held's tds, but we'll see. I'd be pretty surprised if could out wrestle Joe for 3 rounds when that hasn't happened to him in God knows how long. If anyone backs Held, prepare to be frustrated when it becomes evident he isn't better than Joe in any area bar scrambling, and even that may only be the case in the first round.

Just to be clear: I'm not picking nor betting Held necessarily. I'm just saying there isn't a big gap in these two guys, and thinking this is a cakewalk for Joe is a mistake.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Moraga looked gunshy in his last fight. He's claimed in the past that nobody wants to stand and bang with him but he's looked like a lil bitch lately.

Never understood that statement and I also never understood why he has a college wrestling background but gets taken down by everybody and that I can barely remember him using his wrestling to take anyone else down.

However, if there's a finish I believe it's the guillotine by Moraga.

I don't think Pettis is a 2:1 favorite. I think some of you guys played him at that price but I don't think Pettis should be that high based on the fact that he's got only a striking edge and no grappling edge anywhere.

If Moraga shows up like he's been showing up lately really flat and not energetic then Pettis should be able to outwork him. Pettis has way better activity and good lateral movements.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Just to be clear: I'm not picking nor betting Held necessarily. I'm just saying there isn't a big gap in these two guys, and thinking this is a cakewalk for Joe is a mistake.

We'll see, but i'm fairly confident anyone who believes in your argument will be just as wrong as those who believed he'd beat Diego.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Held has tried to go away from it as his primary style. We'll see if he's good enough in other areas to have success.

I do think Joe is rightfully a slight favorite. He's more proven against better competition. But Held's overall game isn't garbage. He looked awful after rd 1 vs Diego because he gassed hard. Before that he was winning the fight.

I think Held is who he is deep down inside. That's just IMO. I know he's way younger and those guys tend to make leaps in improvement compared to a wily veteran like Joe but leg lock guys are just too risky to trust to change their ways. It's embedded in their brains.

I think Joe is going to beat him up standing and everything with trickle down from there when they start getting tangled up. I don't even know if Held has any stand up.

 

[Buddy Brown]

I like Joe but I'm not trusting him to come in looking crappy and gunshy again just because he stopped Diego.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I like Joe but I'm not trusting him to come in looking crappy and gunshy again just because he stopped Diego.

When has Lauzon, who has won like a million FOTNs, ever been gunshy lol

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I would love to get a caraway hypetrain going so I can get a better price on Jimmie.

I mean, the guy keeps on getting underestimated and he keeps winning. He beat Eddie Wineland with his stand up and Eddie has been killing it lately.

He outwrestled and also beat up Aljawomain Sterling. Pretty much schooled that boii in all facets.

People just hate him for no reason like they hated Cody. Put some respek on that man's name (and his odds pls).

 

[Ukram]

Shermans last fight here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/justin-ledet-vs-chase-sherman-ufc-fight-night-92-rodriguez-vs-caceres

Walts last fight here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/shamil-abdurakhimov-vs-walt-harris-ufc-fight-night-lineker-vs-dodson

2 big giant hws with one punch ko power, Sherman struggled against ledets better boxing skills but showed heart and chin, good solid leg kicks otherwise. Walt we know is athletic, has big power and also heavy leg kicks.

I like Walt here, shermans been fighting pro for 2 years while walt comes from a better camp, more experience and has has beaten better guys then sherman, walt also loads up on his power and counter boxes better with cleaner shots with power. Walt su

 

[Buddy Brown]

When has Lauzon, who has won like a million FOTNs, ever been gunshy lol

Off the top of my head, he looked gunshy and just terrible in general in the Dunham, Iaquinta and Johnson fights. He's also been in tonnes of wars and can completely fall off a cliff at any moment.