UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Joseph Budden]

Sherman walt just got interesting. Whos right whos wrong - tune in same bat time same bat channel...

Why is hype always being added to these horse shit fights like this or Sage where i'm just asking for an L lol fuckkk hopefully someone comes at me when I make my next 5u play and we can really make things interesting

 

[michi972]

Come on, don't bet Penn.He looked like skeleton against Penn, looked terrible on pads in countdown, maybe he can take the back somehow, otherwise he gets smashed.

 

[mkess101]

Why is hype always being added to these horse shit fights like this or Sage where i'm just asking for an L lol fuckkk hopefully someone comes at me when I make my next 5u play and we can really make things interesting

Sorry bro, had to...

 

[Orion]

jesus, Powell cannot finish a triangle to save his life. Serious question, how does a guy like this get into the UFC?

Has anyone ever gotten stuck in the same sub that many times in one fight (aside from Thatch being an arm triangle magnet)? good god

 

[Timurd123]

How? People (you and Timurd really) keep saying this with no retort to my breakdown a page back, just its bad and bad head movement. Is that it?

He isnt athletic, he isnt accurate, isnt powerful, Idk what else you need from us

My opinion is in this case you are seeing very little and interpreting it as a lot


It could work out, I'm def not knocking a small play on Sherm at dog odds, but there's not a lot of information to make it seem like a solid play imo

 

[Joseph Budden]

He isnt athletic, he isnt accurate, isnt powerful, Idk what else you need from us

My opinion is in this case you are seeing very little and interpreting it as a lot


It could work out, I'm def not knocking a small play on Sherm at dog odds, but there's not a lot of information to make it seem like a solid play imo

Man what kind of retort is this? I hate when people turn things into assumptions lol don't mean to come off as rude (sorry if this has been happening lately, admittedly still sour about losing out on 30k last event and have been FIENDING for another UFC to get it out of my head) How are you going to assume what I'm doing when my breakdown is a page back? I'm not interpreting anything as a lot lol he's not fighting stipe miocic he's fighting Walt Harris

Also, his athleticism and power have nothing to do with his technique on the feet. I never said he had either of those advantages, but what technical skills does Walt possess? Am I suppose to back him as a favorite cause he has more power despite seemingly no technical advantages on the feet?

I also mentioned many times how the unknown is what I fear more than the known, so at least i agree on the info we have part.

I'm not throwing a decent play on Sherm here guys, just saying if you're gonna bet this fight like I am it's a clear dog or pass imo

 

[cCrown]

rodriguez unan dec +480

 

[Joseph Budden]

rodriguez unan dec +480

This and Penn sub +775 are how i'm playing this one. Great lines to combine imo

 

[Joseph Budden]

Court dec +204. Very disappointing, hoped for +300 or better. Think i'll be on Saunders sub when its out.

Hit Saenz dec +138

Hit Pesta dec +250

Hit Nina dec +165

Tempted by Klose itd +160 but gonna wait for -3.5

Sherman dec +425 wow....guess i'll be just a little bigger on him than I thought loll

Tempted by Chrisensen itd +130 but gonna wait on -3.5 for that too

 

[mkess101]

BJ sub +775. Had to for a little. Nostalgia bet, I'm old and it's his best chance at winning.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Figure i'll elaborate a little on why I like the Yair unan dec + Penn sub combo.

I gotta say guys, I was on board with BJ +400 at first but man, I reminisced with some BJ fights yesterday and even before the ass whoopings to Edgar, Diaz, Rory he looked horrible as far back as Fitch. I don't think there is any reason to hit anything but his sub line. Yair is a fucking phenom. Does he have weaknesses? Yes, 100%. But is he also one of the most special and creative talents to enter the sport? Yes, 100%

BJ was always a super tough motherfucker and Yair doesn't pack a lot of power behind the flash, so that unan dec +485 line is really nice to me. Maybe even sprinkle some on Yair in 4 and 5 too, but i'm hoping the elevation training at Jackson's has given BJ the cardio boost to match his toughness for a 5 round fight. And on the flipside, IF BJ can somehow win this, its by doing what he did to Fitch (dk why he fought like this vs Fitch btw) and what I heard Jackson telling him during sparring on the countdown. Pressure, pressure, pressure. Right in Yair's face from the jump, grab that clinch and try to drag him down. BJ is not going to win a striking match. Even if you wanna argue his boxing being good enough in his heyday to make it interesting, hes just going to be too slow and too confused.

 

[EzFlyer]

took a bit of:

held dec +260
bj-yair DEC +260
bj-yair O2.5 -110

and i bet all fights to be draws, just like 0.4u total. but kinda regret it as it might not be relevant in arizona this early.

 

[Cord]

Bj-yair dec is an interesting one indeed. The question is: will BJ Penn at his age be able not to completely gas out for 5 rounds?

 

[mkess101]

Bj-yair dec is an interesting one indeed. The question is: will BJ Penn at his age be able not to completely gas out for 5 rounds?

He's incredibly durable, even when beaten on and exhausted. That could be changing now of course at his age, but even in his last fight vs Frankie he took an incredible amount of punishment before the mercy stoppage. And Yair isn't gonna tax his gas tank like Frankie did.

 

[Timurd123]

My retort is my opinion, dont know why you would take it personally

What I'm saying is his skills on the feet are 2.5/10 , sure Walt might be a 2 , but you're making it seem like Sherm is a 6 when he is awful, my point is confidence in someone as awful as Sherm is silly

 

[Timurd123]

Also Yair is like Ramon Daniels

He's gonna look hillariously bad against someone with good technique that isn't completely shot like BJ is

 

[Joseph Budden]

My retort is my opinion, dont know why you would take it personally

What I'm saying is his skills on the feet are 2.5/10 , sure Walt might be a 2 , but you're making it seem like Sherm is a 6 when he is awful, my point is confidence in someone as awful as Sherm is silly

Not taking it personally, just not sure where you came up with those assumptions. Felt like I did a good enough breakdown with follow up posts where its silly to say to me you are assuming i'm taking little things and making them big. Hard to make convo out of that. Maybe I see potential for Sherman to have potential (dat wordplay) but for christ sakes when i'm breaking down the opponent and all he does on the feet is look to time slow left hands you don't have to be the best fighter ever lol

Sherm is def a 5/10 at least, and honestly can be a little higher if his cardio looks better now that they aren't at elevation. The dude was putting together 3 punch combos and ending on a leg kick with great fluidity, how many HWs do that? and putting his hands together nice on the inside.

Not super confident (even though that juicy +450 dec line has me a bit bigger on this fight now), but yeah I pick Sherm to win this for sure from what i've seen (to repeat, many ?s such as will Harris use his physicality that could come into play that scare me. By seen I basically mean striking) and wouldn't touch Harris as a fave.

 

[maxim814]

Just listened to Yair on the MMA Hour. He sounds like he may be coming in over confident. Maybe BJ has more of a chance than the odds state

 

[OneWarrior1]

I feel like I wasted my time and resources researching and discussing this card. In hindsight, it should have been a pass and maybe get some fresh air lol. But I'm already in with my biggest bet on Nina, then some small bets on Saienz, Christenson, Klose, Nina over, McGee over smfh. Shouldn't force plays. Hope to come out of this card break even at the very least.

 

[rille31]

bj looked like a zombie hitting those pads in the countdown