UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[OneWarrior1]

BJ looking slow as fuh. Would be noice if Yair rolled into one of BJ's patented RNCs. I bet BJ will get dizzy and gas out just from watching Yair roll around like a retard.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Betsafe has Yair/BJ o2.5 +100. Great line. Went big on -110 earlier.

 

[Sham5916910]

i don't like forming an opinion based on edited training footage, but he is going to be at a huge speed disadvantage here. I will save this one for lb.

 

[HumbleCoco]

I get that bj is durable but I'm surprised many are on the over. Personally I feel too unsure but I would be looking at the under - it will become apparent quickly whether bj has the ability to enforce the gameplan IE crowding and working to the floor when he is fresh - if can't from the start then I feel the speed of Yair would have to be a big enough differential to lead to an earlier finish. If it's the over it could be an extremely depressing match and I don't want to see bj go through that.
Again willing to be wrong, Yair hasn't exactly faced the upper echelon of competition, just another story of this card being too many unknowns.

 

[wack3d]

there is no doubt Yair will have a big speed advantage but i am not going to be swayed one way or the other by that pad work on the countdown.. we have no clue when it was filmed? could have been at the start of camp when he just got back into training or after a long day of training, not going 100% ect or he could just be that slow guess we will see in a week

 

[Sham5916910]

Yair is reliant on low percentage moves to win by KO. But I can see BJ being so slow and just getting flattened by something crazy especially as he tires. Over/under is a pass for me.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Yair is reliant on low percentage moves to win by KO. But I can see BJ being so slow and just getting flattened by something crazy especially as he tires. Over/under is a pass for me.

Would be shocked to see BJ gas early vs a guy like Yair.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm liking Martin/White ITD. Martin has only seen the bell in one out of five UFC fights and that was against a decision machine.

 

[Cord]

I'm just watching Asker.. including the match where he gets kneed in the balls twice.. looks fat and slow to me.
Terrible striking defense.
Only thing he is ok at is shooting.

 

[HumbleCoco]

Okay added over 1.5 on sherman/Harris, feels pretty likely to me, Ledet kept Sherman at bay with a jab and Harris will likely do the same probably to less success. Only worry is still the ground game of Sherman but it isnt the usual gameplan for Harris.

 

[Sham5916910]

Just watched Powell Marcellino for the second time damn Powell is pure trash. So lucky he got signed! He's not even that good off his back. He had nothing for Marcellino off his back. His close sub attempts were a sloppy tired td from Marcellino who left his neck out there, and a back take again from a sloppy tired td from Marcellino that Powell reversed with such a basic sweep. Marcellino escaped both tho and end up back on top. Powell's fight where he couldn't finish the triangle or armbar show to me he has terrible finishing technique. Still cant believe Powell got that decision.

I hope Klose keeps this on the feet and doesn't get baited in to taking Powell down. The temptation will be there as Powell throws slow lazy kicks that are inviting you to catch and take him down off, and just in general as his tdd is soooo bad. Powell backs up in straight lines so if Klose does go for td's i hope he does it from the clinch against the cage and keeps him there. This will limit any guillotine threat off the td and reduces the chance of a triangle, etc. Powell has shown absolutely no ability to cage walk his MMA style is a relic of MMA past. I really don't expect Klose to have a problem dealing with his bottom game, but just to be on the safe side. I expect this to be a mismatch.

I honestly think Powell and Bojan are potentially the worst fighters on the UFC roster.

 

[Ukram]

I originally liked the 2.5 overs on the penn/yair but agree with comments above from humble/sham, bookies probably got the line right, yair is young and explosive and always throwing jumping knees and head kicks, who is to say a retired 38 year old penn with bobble head movement and tippy toe syndrome does not get caught with one of those yair shots.

Yair also knocked out fili cold last spring (filis proper first ko loss) so he does have the right tools, they may just excel even more against penn.

Its a risk with that tempting line either way, but gun to head I probably would play the over also, but don't think its a sure thing.

 

[Sham5916910]

I originally liked the 2.5 overs on the penn/yair but agree with comments above from humble/sham, bookies probably got the line right, yair is young and explosive and always throwing jumping knees and head kicks, who is to say a retired 38 year old penn with bobble head movement and tippy toe syndrome does not get caught with one of those yair shots.

Yair also knocked out fili cold last spring (filis proper first ko loss) so he does have the right tools, they may just excel even more against penn.

Its a risk with that tempting line either way, but gun to head I probably would play the over also, but don't think its a sure thing.

I faded Yair against Fili but he looked good in that fight. So i thought maybe the hype is real. But then he put in a bad performance against Caceres and showed a lot of holes.

 

[chemmy]

I faded Yair against Fili but he looked good in that fight. So i thought maybe the hype is real. But then he put in a bad performance against Caceres and showed a lot of holes.

I don't think he showed that many holes against Bruce Leroy, myself. His technique / athleticism both looked fairly good in that fight. He's just a young, over-aggressive fighter who hasn't yet learned the importance of pacing himself. A seasoned vet with plenty of gas in the tank may be able to teach him that lesson the hard way, but I don't think that BJ fits that bill at this point.

Then again, Penn has always been very opportunistic so if he can capitalize on an opening maybe he can pull off the unlikely upset. I think the speed / athletic differences at this point will be glaringly obvious though and will make all the difference in the world.

 

[Ukram]

I faded Yair against Fili but he looked good in that fight. So i thought maybe the hype is real. But then he put in a bad performance against Caceres and showed a lot of holes.

I think he changed a bit due to 25 minutes, alex is a tricky fighter with his height and range advantage also but if I recall from that fight I gave it clearly to Yair, not sure why it went to split really, maybe need to rewatch that one again.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think he changed a bit due to 25 minutes, alex is a tricky fighter with his height and range advantage also but if I recall from that fight I gave it clearly to Yair, not sure why it went to split really, maybe need to rewatch that one again.

It weren't a split that was crazy. i went big on yair on lb and when they said split i was shocked.

 

[Ukram]

I'm just watching Asker.. including the match where he gets kneed in the balls twice.. looks fat and slow to me.
Terrible striking defense.
Only thing he is ok at is shooting.

Yeah not the best but I think if dmitry gasses, asker could have a bit of a cardio advantage. Both are terrible still.

 

[Sham5916910]

I don't think he showed that many holes against Bruce Leroy, myself. His technique / athleticism both looked fairly good in that fight. He's just a young, over-aggressive fighter who hasn't yet learned the importance of pacing himself. A seasoned vet with plenty of gas in the tank may be able to teach him that lesson the hard way, but I don't think that BJ fits that bill at this point.

Then again, Penn has always been very opportunistic so if he can capitalize on an opening maybe he can pull off the unlikely upset. I think the speed / athletic differences at this point will be glaringly obvious though and will make all the difference in the world.

Im not picking Penn here btw. But i do think he overly relies on the flamboyant stuff and that wont work as he steps up in class it's too low percentage.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Come on, don't bet Penn.He looked like skeleton against Penn, looked terrible on pads in countdown, maybe he can take the back somehow, otherwise he gets smashed.

Lol

I too initially liked penn... then seeing the pad work of both guys in countdown good god penn looked slow and old

 

[EzFlyer]

I'm liking Martin/White ITD. Martin has only seen the bell in one out of five UFC fights and that was against a decision machine.

martin ITD pays a lot better than both guys ITD, and i have a really hard time seeing white finish martin.