UFC Vegas 87, JR vs Shamil Gaziev, March 2, UFC Apex, 1 PM eastern

[Stat_Collector]

triple set ko

Umar&Movaev dual sub prop

both opponents have been previously subbed.

Perez at least 5x

 

[lefontes]

O1.5 Erceg x Shnell @1.80 is crazy value?

 

[PuertoRican]

O1.5 Erceg x Shnell @1.80 is crazy value?

This was the line that stood out to me as being a trap.

I think Erceg can rock Schnell on the feet and either finish by TKO or snatch a submission if he falls to the mat.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Worst event for betting.

 

[jnes]

O1.5 Erceg x Shnell @1.80 is crazy value?

Tempting, like @PuertoRican said, could easily see Erceg buzzing him. Even with only 1 KO Erceg can crack and has buzzed Dvorak and Costa bad. Could see a club and sub too, Erceg is good on the mat.

 

[BigSteve]

auto fade. I found it sus why an undefeated russian is hovering around near pick em odds.

Consider too his whole career is a riddled with a so many cans. its a make or break type fight.

i should say his last couple have been solid competition

I mean taking Stosices best punch, the left hook clean on the button and popping straight up is impressive. Stosic made a career out of killing people with it. Im not impressed with the Stosic win, more that he killed him with one punch, Stosic has ellite durability. Same as Buday. And the Ares FC split dec win is a really high lvl striker too.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

auto fade. I found it sus why an undefeated russian is hovering around near pick em odds.

Consider too his whole career is a riddled with a so many cans. its a make or break type fight.

i should say his last couple have been solid competition

Fought Kirill Kornilov. Was a decision that could have gone either way, but for me Kornilov is probably top 10 in the world.

 

[lefontes]

Petrino, Erceg, Mokaev, Anders, Basharat and Rosas will win easy imo

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean taking Stosices best punch, the left hook clean on the button and popping straight up is impressive. Stosic made a career out of killing people with it. Im not impressed with the Stosic win, more that he killed him with one punch, Stosic has ellite durability. Same as Buday. And the Ares FC split dec win is a really high lvl striker too.

i picked him against Buday , he’s pretty good but Rozen is a season pro with 80+ kickboxing matches. Getting dropped does bring concern because Rozen is a heavier hitter than Stosic who was a former lhw, shamil should get the win but i’m approaching it with caution, lower size bet. Rozen having 12/13 wins by ko speaks to his power. It could be another Renan/Bader situation, Shamil is 34 too.

Fought Kirill Kornilov. Was a decision that could have gone either way, but for me Kornilov is probably top 10 in the world.

but what makes him top ten? he’s beaten mid level guys in regional. Rozen is top ranked in the ufc. It’s not like Rozen isn’t capable of beating a fellow kick boxer either. I likely see a scenario where shamil just wrestles him to death or Rozen lands a big punch.

My other concern is Shamil tasted defeat in 2019 and 2018, i don’t see him being that unbeaten, i think this will make or break him , he could get exposed.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

i picked him against Buday , he’s pretty good but Rozen is a season pro with 80+ kickboxing matches. Getting dropped does bring concern because Rozen is a heavier hitter than Stosic who was a former lhw, shamil should get the win but i’m approaching it with caution, lower size bet. Rozen having 12/13 wins by ko speaks to his power. It could be another Renan/Bader situation, Shamil is 34 too.


but what makes him top ten? he’s beaten mid level guys in regional. Rozen is top ranked in the ufc. It’s not like Rozen isn’t capable of beating a fellow kick boxer either. I likely see a scenario where shamil just wrestles him to death or Rozen lands a big punch.

My other concern is Shamil tasted defeat in 2019 and 2018, i don’t see him being that unbeaten, i think this will make or break him , he could get exposed.

Salimgery Rasulov isn't mid level and he dominated him.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Salimgery Rasulov isn't mid level and he dominated him.

he probably is, but if we put resume aside, Shamil got dropped with a grazing check hook, which is a signature move of Rozen.

i think my assessment of Rozen having a puncher’s chance or getting mauled on the ground is pretty standard read in the community, Rozen is pretty decent at fighting the hands on the ground, it really comes down to Shamil rnc ability or his top ctrl for 5 rounds.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

he probably is, but if we put resume aside, Shamil got dropped with a grazing check hook, which is a signature move of Rozen.

i think my assessment of Rozen having a puncher’s chance or getting mauled on the ground is pretty standard read in the community, Rozen is pretty decent at fighting the hands on the ground, it really comes down to Shamil rnc ability or his top ctrl for 5 rounds.

If I'm playing Rozen I'd probably look at a late KO prop. Gaziev has tired during fights before, Rozen has been tough to finish and we've seen he carries power into the later rounds before.

 

[magpie878]

If I'm playing Rozen I'd probably look at a late KO prop. Gaziev has tired during fights before, Rozen has been tough to finish and we've seen he carries power into the later rounds before.

"Tough to finish" sounded iffy, so I looked to confirm my thoughts.

3-5 in his last eight fights, and 3 of 5 losses were finishes. All in round 1. Just info FYI.

And really, the only time he won late in a fight was Overeem.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

"Tough to finish" sounded iffy, so I looked to confirm my thoughts.

3-5 in his last eight fights, and 3 of 5 losses were finishes. All in round 1. Just info FYI.

And really, the only time he won late in a fight was Overeem.

Fair, although all against top level guys.

 

[BigSteve]

i picked him against Buday , he’s pretty good but Rozen is a season pro with 80+ kickboxing matches. Getting dropped does bring concern because Rozen is a heavier hitter than Stosic who was a former lhw, shamil should get the win but i’m approaching it with caution, lower size bet. Rozen having 12/13 wins by ko speaks to his power. It could be another Renan/Bader situation, Shamil is 34 too.


but what makes him top ten? he’s beaten mid level guys in regional. Rozen is top ranked in the ufc. It’s not like Rozen isn’t capable of beating a fellow kick boxer either. I likely see a scenario where shamil just wrestles him to death or Rozen lands a big punch.

My other concern is Shamil tasted defeat in 2019 and 2018, i don’t see him being that unbeaten, i think this will make or break him , he could get exposed.

I bet him against Buday too 2.50. Looking at his UFC career, has Rozen KOed anyone in the UFC with a decent chin? I would say no. I thought Sakai was durable, I changed my tune lately. I don't like how hittable Gaviev is, although he took Stosices best punch clean on the chin and KOed him not long after. Rozen KO if I had to play

 

[Stat_Collector]

I bet him against Buday too 2.50. Looking at his UFC career, has Rozen KOed anyone in the UFC with a decent chin? I would say no. I thought Sakai was durable, I changed my tune lately. I don't like how hittable Gaviev is, although he took Stosices best punch clean on the chin and KOed him not long after. Rozen KO if I had to play

i’m liking Gaz for 1200+ dec as a hedge for the submission. just maybe Rozen improved his choke defense post Almeida.

Rozen had like 68 kos in kickboxing matches, and a lot of r1 kos, maybe not as hard as a ngannou but slight notch below Derick Lewis in terms power.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Vinicius Oliveira at pick-em odds is a total steal imo. His opponent Sopaj can look like a great fighter for short periods because he is explosive and can land nice counters against opponents out of their depth but he does not fight in a way conducive to winning rounds.

Sopaj is low volume, easily placed on his backfoot, and does not respond well to pressure; pretty much KO or bust.

 

[guidi]

Just saw props, Mokaev by submission at +165 seems like great value as he has defeated most of his opposition in the UFC this way. Perez has been submitted 5 times already, there are definitely levels with Figgy and Pantoja doing this to him just seems likely that this will follow the usual Mokaev style of fight. Tons of takedowns early and dominant positions that wear down his opponents leading to a late submission in the fight.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Waiting to get better odds for Rozenstruik. I think he wins this fight 75% of the time

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Just saw props, Mokaev by submission at +165 seems like great value as he has defeated most of his opposition in the UFC this way. Perez has been submitted 5 times already, there are definitely levels with Figgy and Pantoja doing this to him just seems likely that this will follow the usual Mokaev style of fight. Tons of takedowns early and dominant positions that wear down his opponents leading to a late submission in the fight.

I took ITD at +125 instead.

I was burned by taking Green by KO over Tony and then I think it was the fight card after or something I was gonna play Raul by Sub over that Alaskan fighter, but changed it to ITD instead because of the Green fight (he got the KO). Those two instances has made me hesitant to go for only the main finish method if the other one is cheap.