UFC Vegas 87, JR vs Shamil Gaziev, March 2, UFC Apex, 1 PM eastern

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UFC Vegas 87

JR vs Shamil Gaziev, March 2, UFC Apex

1 PM eastern

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/106064-ufc-fight-night

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/76662

https://fightodds.io/odds/5318/ufc-fight-night-rozenstruik-vs-gaziev

https://www.betmma.tips/free_ufc_betting_tips.php?Event=1466

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCVegas87 lang:en&src=typed_query&f=live

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Pasting this from a ufc fan website lol

ESPN MAIN CARD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev
Vitor Petrino vs Tyson Pedro
Muhammad Mokaev vs Alex Perez
Raul Rosas Jr vs Ricky Turcios
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Bekzat Almakhan
Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg
ESPN+/FIGHT PASS PRELIMS
Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett
Ludovit Klein vs TBA
Javid Basharat vs Aiemann Zahabi
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Claudio Ribeiro
Vinicius Oliveira vs Yanis Ghemmouri
Loik Radzhabov vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady


You know what? I actually don’t think this is that bad. It’s gonna get shat on because of the main event but there’s some solid matchups on there. And even the main event could be (hopefully) short and sweet. We’ve had worse. Couple of fights have dropped off, which is why there’s so few fights on there, but I don’t mind that at all. Apex cards being shorter works for me.
On a side note - this is the card that was originally supposed to be in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis put up a $20M site fee so, rightly, wanted something better than this! Apparently the plan is now to do the Saudi show in June. Trying to take a sodding Apex show over there was never gonna cut it, was it? The good news for us is, according to Marcel Dorff, it’s still gonna be on Saudi timezone. Prelims are currently set to kick off at 6:30pm UK time, with the main card from 9pm.


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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev headlines. Whether we like it or not. I guess this is what we get for moaning about all those Middleweight Apex main events. Now we’ve got 5 rounds of Fattyweight mediocrity to look forward to. Smashing. In fairness, this mightn’t be as bad as we think. As Heavyweight fights go, they actually could’ve given us a lot worse than this. But for the life of me I’ll never understand why the lower weight classes so rarely get these main event spots when they’re pretty much always way better actual fights than the 185 and up lot. Whatever. This is undeniably one of the weakest main events on the schedule but I’ll give it a chance.
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I don’t mind Rozenstruik myself. I mean, he’s going nowhere and his fight announcements always seem to be met with groans and negativity, presumably because he’s not elite or something. But he’s an alright middle of the pack player. Seems quite likeable and he’s far, far from the worst or most boring in the division. He’s got a shitload of fight experience, 85 Kickboxing fights. Again, I often see that get shat on because of the level of opposition or whatever, no doubt there’s truth to that criticism but it’s all reps and experience in the bank. In MMA he’s gone 13-5 with 12 knockouts. He hit his ceiling a while back and has lost almost every time he’s stepped up a level. But he’s definitely had his moments. Stopped Arlovski early, stopped Overeem late, stopped JDS. There was a time when he was actually knocking on the door of being in the title mix. Any hopes of that seem to have fizzled out now though. He’s gone 2-3 in his last 5 and the wins were over Augusto Sakai and Chris Daukaus. We last saw him getting steamrolled by Jailton Almeida in May last year. He turns 36 a couple of weeks after this fight. So yeah, safe to say he’s found his level. Unlikely he’s gonna go on some surge at this stage of his career. But still, he packs a punch and he’s a decent enough test for an up and comer, I guess.
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Gaziev is actually where my intrigue lies here. He’s from Bahrain, 34 years old and he’s undefeated at 12-0 with 11 inside the distance. He fought in the Brave CF and Ares FC promotions, scored a quick submission on DWCS back in September and made his Octagon debut at UFC 296 in December, getting a TKO finish over Martin Buday. I don’t remember being blown away by Gaziev’s performance that night but not bad for his debut. Better than a lot of the big useless slugs in the division and at least he goes for the finish. Granted, he could well turn out to be just as awful as the vast majority of the lumbering plodders stinking up the division but, for now, he’s been inoffensive enough.
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That’s our main event then. Yeah, I know, not ideal. Pretty high possibility that this ends up being rotten to watch. But that’s always the case with Heavyweight. Especially over 5 rounds. I’m hoping they both stick to their usual approach and both come in looking for the early finish. Obviously, Rozey is a KO merchant. He’s gonna be looking to land a bomb from the off. But he’s weak in the grappling and I could definitely see Gaziev trying to exploit that. Looking at the rankings, Rozenstruik is currently at #12 so, while a win here wouldn’t exactly catapult Gaziev up the ladder, it would earn him a spot in the rankings just 2 fights into his UFC career. Yeah, expectations aren’t high for this but I hope it’s a pleasant surprise.

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Vitor Petrino vs Tyson Pedro could be a banger but I get the feeling it’s gonna be a bit of a slaughter. I’ve been saying for a while I’m just not fully sold on Tyson Pedro. I like him, seems a sound bloke and against a certain level of opposition he looks solid. But I don’t know. I know he had that period of bad luck with the injuries and the massive layoff a few years ago but he had his shortcomings even before that. He lost to a washed up Shogun in the fight he got injured in and went into that layoff having lost 3 of his last 4. He finally came back after 3+ years on the shelf and he’s gone 3-1 since. But the wins were over Ike Villanueva, Harry Hunsucker and Anton Turkalj. The loss was against Modestas Bukauskas. I think Pedro’s getting battered here.
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Vitor Petrino has looked like one of the better prospects to come out of Brazil in a while to me. He’s 26 years old and undefeated at 10-0 with 8 finishes. He got in off a TKO win on DWCS in 2022 and went 3-0 in the UFC last year. He hasn’t been beating a who’s who, hasn’t really been tested yet, it’s early days. But so far, so good. He’s ended fights by knockout and by submission, so he’s not a one trick pony. He’s finished fights early and he’s finished fights late. So despite his WWF Hasbro looking physique, he doesn’t seem to be the type of fighter who fades terribly if they don’t get the quick finish. He’s coming into this fight off a vicious knockout win over Pedro’s pal Bukauskas on the São Paulo card in November. He looks a handful. Not sure how much further he can go and there’s definitely still questions to be asked of him, but he’s looked the real deal so far. With his potential, his style and his look, he’s a guy who could become a bit of a star the likes the Brazilians haven’t really had come along in a while. He’s not ranked yet but if he wins this, I’d like to see him get a ranked opponent on that upcoming Brazil PPV in May next. Maybe Oezdemir or someone like that. I realise I’ve probably jinxed him now but he looks legit so far.

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Muhammad Mokaev vs Alex Perez is ***WAND’S ONE TO WATCH*** this time. Genuinely wouldn’t have been upset if this was the main event, to be honest. Cracking fight. If it happens. And that’s the problem. I’ll give the UFC a little bit of an out here. Maybe I’m giving them too much credit but maybe part of the reason why this wasn’t given top billing is because of Perez’s track record of cancelled fights. Since signing with the UFC in 2017, Perez has had 9 fights. He’s also had, count ‘em, 12 fights cancelled. Fair enough, they weren’t always down to him pulling out. But Christ. He’s a decent fighter when he shows up. He stopped Jussier Formiga with leg kicks in a round back in 2020, a win which earned him a title shot against then champion Deiveson Figueiredo. That’s been the peak of his career so far. But Figgy made short work of him and subbed him in 2 minutes. Perez then got strangled in 90 seconds by Pantoja in his next fight and hasn’t been seen since. He’ll have been inactive about 18 months or so by the time he steps into the Octagon here. If he does.
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Mokaev’s the pull here. He came into the UFC with hype and was widely considered to be one of the most promising prospects in the Flyweight division. He’s undoubtedly got talent and potential but, so far, I don’t think he’s quite delivered on the buzz he had coming in. That probably sounds harsh. He’s been winning, he’s undefeated, can’t fault him too much. But while the record looks great on Wikipedia, you watch him and he still looks so raw, sometimes even green. He’s fought 5 times in the UFC now, has gone 5-0 and won 4 of them by submission. But he always seems to have these moments in fights where it looks like it could all go tits up at any second. It’s only been his UFC debut against Cody Durden that’s been completely flawless and that’s because he just breezed through him in seconds. Since then he’s had shaky moments against Charles Johnson and Malcolm Gordon, had to gut through a horrific kneebar against Jafel Filho and in his last fight I had him 2 rounds down against Tim Elliott before he found the submission in the last round. Like I said, bags of potential and he’s still only 23. Time is on his side. But he seems hell bent on rushing straight up the rankings and I can’t help thinking it’s gonna backfire on him sooner rather than later. For as promising as he looks, he was 2 minutes away from losing a decision to Elliott last time. He keeps finding ways to win and that’s admirable but it’s only a matter of time before he just doesn’t find that late sub and takes the L. He’s already ranked #8 now. It’s all tough matchups from here on out. Hopefully he doesn’t crash and burn though because the Groundhog Day title picture at Flyweight could definitely do with some fresh faces.
 

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Raul Rosas Jr vs Ricky Turcios then. Second attempt at this one. It was all set to go down on the Mexico card a week earlier but Rosas fell ill and the fight got scrapped literally just before they were due to go out. Pure speculation but I wonder if it was more of a nerves thing. 19 years old, fighting in Mexico, the altitude etc. They’ve pushed it back a week and here we are. Should be a really entertaining fight. Rosas hasn’t had a dull moment yet from what I’ve seen. He came in with a fair bit of hype and buzz around him because of his age but suffered his first defeat at UFC 287 last April, losing on points to Christian Rodriguez. It sounds weird to frame that as a positive but I think it might be in the long run. Getting that first loss out of the way early might end up being a bit of a blessing in disguise. It takes away the pressure that comes with being an ‘undefeated prospect’ and, if there was any chance of him starting to believe his own hype and get cocky, that loss should keep him grounded. Plus he’s only 19, it’s not like a decision loss like that is a career killer. He returned on the Mexican Independence Day card in September and wiped out Terrence Mitchell in just 54 seconds…


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OK, Mitchell isn’t much good but, again, Rosas is only 19. He’s got bags of time. At that stage, coming off his first loss, it was probably for the best for him to just get back in there and get a quick win to get a bit of that confidence back. This should be a tougher fight. Turcios is a scrappy little fucker. He won TUF back in 2021, dropped a decision to Aiemann Zahabi but then won an exciting fight against Kevin Natividad after that. The thing going against him here is inactivity. That Natividad fight was November 2022, so he’s been out well over a year now. And despite being 30 years old, at 12-3 he’s not much more experienced than Rosas. It’s definitely a fight I think Rosas can win. I can see why the matchmakers probably like his chances here. But you never know. Like I said, Turcios is wild and game as they come. Neither are defensive marvels from what I’ve seen so if it turns into a firefight it could just come down to who bobs when they should’ve weaved. Hopefully it happens this time because it’s got potential FOTN written all over it.





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Umar Nurmagomedov vs Bekzat Almakhan then. Really odd booking this. As I type, Umar’s undefeated and ranked #13 in the Bantamweight division. He was all set to headline the Nashville card in August against Cory Sandhagen, dropped out with a shoulder injury…and now this? Baffling. I keep hearing claims that everyone’s ducking Umar, and a matchup like this being made would usually make me think that the top contenders didn’t want any. But Sandhagen was all in on fighting him last time. Why couldn’t we just get that one rescheduled? Oh well. At this point I’m just glad Umar’s back in the game.


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28 years old, 16-0. Hopefully the setbacks and layoffs are behind him now and we can see what he’s about. Because so far, he’s looked the business. The problem has been that we haven’t seen him properly tested at the top level yet. That Sandhagen fight would’ve been the perfect way to get all the answers on him. A 5 rounder against a top contender like Sandhagen would’ve been the ultimate litmus test. Had Umar fought and won that fight, he’d probably be right in the thick of the little unofficial Bantamweight tournament that’s going on at the moment with O’Malley, Chito, Merab, Cejudo, Yan, Song etc. Instead, here he is facing a UFC newcomer. It’s all very strange. Almakhan is Kazakh, 26 years old and 14-1 with 13 finishes. Nothing jumps off the page looking at his record but he’s coming off a couple of knockout wins, one being a 7 second headkick KO last July! You never know with these guys. And the Kazakh fighters we’ve seen so far in the UFC have been hard as nails. Could be a potential banana skin for Umar. He might’ve just been better off trying to get that Sandhagen fight back on because the risk/reward aspect here isn’t in his favour.





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Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg should be good if it happens. I say that because, like Alex Perez, Schnell has a habit of not showing up. Shit, this fight with Erceg was originally supposed to go down at UFC 295 at MSG back in November but, true to form, Schnell rang in sick. When he does show up he’s usually decent to watch. Patchy results but he’s had some good fights. I absolutely loved his batshit crazy scrap against Su Mudaerji in July 2022.


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Legitimately one of my favourite fights that year. If you missed it, get it watched. Schnell got the win, choking Mudaerji unconscious and leaving him in a pool of his own blood. He had to walk through fire to get that win though. Tremendous fight. But Schnell got knocked out by Matheus Nicolau in his next fight and then was inactive the whole of 2023. So the momentum he had coming off that Mudaerji war just evaporated. Typical Schnell. Aussie Erceg is 11-1 and on a 10 fight winning streak. He beat Alessandro Costa on the MSG card after Schnell dropped out. Before that he won his UFC debut, outpointing David Dvorak. I remember him looking pretty good in both fights.





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Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett. Doing sod all for me this. Both just reek of ‘making up the numbers’ matchmaking at this point. Anders has been on the roster for what feels like an age and I can probably count on one hand the fights that I’ve even half enjoyed. He didn’t have the worst start to his career. Beat Brendan Allen in LFA and had a really close decision with Lyoto Machida in 2018 that many actually felt he won. Not much else of note though other than taking a split decision off our Gerald. Shitbag. He’s coming into this fight having lost 3 of his last 4. In fairness, I recall his last fight against Marc-Andre Barriault being decent. But yeah, again a loss. Pickett’s doing even worse. He’s 13-10 and has lost his last 4 fights on the trot. He got fed to Bo Nickal in Bo’s UFC debut, got squashed, then lost his next fight to Josh Fremd in August. Nothing to see here. Should be a ‘loser (and winner) leaves’ match.





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Javid Basharat vs Aiemann Zahabi is another sneaky good bit of matchmaking that’ll probably go under the radar. Really like this pairing. Although I’m fully rooting for Basharat’s downfall now. I kind of took a liking to him and his brother Farid when they first got in the UFC. Javid turned heel for me though after his last fight. He kicked Victor Henry in the balls in Abu Dhabi back in October, resulting in their fight being stopped and ruled a No Contest. Unfortunate but it happens. An occupational hazard of the worst kind. It was accidental. It was the way Basharat went on post-fight that made him look a right tit.


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Went from saying Henry quit to denying the kick hit him low at all. Josh Barnett, who trains Henry and was in his corner that night, went to the hospital with him and said, and I quote, that his balls had “swollen to the size of a satsuma”. Basharat was even going back and forth arguing with Barnett on Twitter, denying the low blow and calling Henry a quitter. Proper bellend. Hoping Helwani’s doppelgänger chins him here. Not really confident he does though. As much as I’ve soured on Basharat, he’d looked decent in his previous fights I saw and was 14-0 going into that Henry fight. Zahabi is alright and is on a 3 fight win streak but he’s 36 years old and has been so inactive and stop/start in his career that I don’t really have any faith in him.





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Christian Leroy Duncan vs Claudio Ribeiro could be pure fireworks. Should be a nasty striking battle. CLD didn’t get off to the most ideal start in the UFC. He came in with a bit of buzz about him as an undefeated Cage Warriors champion and made his Octagon debut on the London card last March. It all seemed to be lining up for him to have a great debut on home soil in the UK but his opponent suffered a knee injury 2 minutes into the fight and that was that. He then followed that by suffering his first defeat in a frustrating fight against Armen Petrosyan in June. He finally got that first real satisfying UFC win in his last fight in November though…


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Beautiful. Just crushed poor Denis Tiuliulin with that brutal finishing sequence. Hopefully we see more of this out of CLD going forward. On paper, Ribeiro seems like the ideal opponent for him to showcase his striking against. But at the same time, he can’t afford to get too reckless. Ribeiro’s nothing special but he’s definitely a finisher. He’s 11-4 and all 11 wins came by knockout. 8 in the first round. He seems like a proper ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ type. He got knocked out in his UFC debut by Abdul Razak Alhassan, bounced back with a TKO win over Joseph Holmes, then got headkicked into oblivion by Roman Kopylov last time out. I’d expect Duncan to come out on top here. It’s almost certainly gonna be a standup battle and Duncan’s the more skilled striker. But you can never count out a big hitter like Ribeiro.





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Vinicius Oliveira vs Yanis Ghemmouri. No thoughts on this, to be honest. Never seen Oliveira, not seen enough of Ghemmouri. Looking them both up on Sherdog, this is Oliveira’s UFC debut, he’s 28 years old and has a record of 19-3 and 17 finishes. Not bad at first glance. He’s coming off a first round knockout win on DWCS in September. Ghemmouri is French, 29 years old and 12-2 with 7 finishes. He fought in the Brave promotion before making his UFC debut on the Paris card in September. He fought William Gomis that night and it ended in controversy when Gomis kicked him in the balls and the ref missed it and immediately waved the fight off as a TKO win for Gomis. Thought it was harsh on Ghemmouri myself. He didn’t do himself any favours by turning his back, and that’s probably the main reason the ref stopped it. But I definitely thought the kick was low and it was a shite way for Ghemmouri to lose his UFC debut.





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Loik Radzhabov vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady might be worth tuning in early for. I’ve enjoyed the limited footage I’ve seen of Radzhabov so far. He trains with Gilbert Burns and was supposed to appear on the McGregor vs Chandler season of TUF but got replaced by one of Conor’s boys from what I remember. He wound up making his UFC debut anyway on the Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane undercard last March and beat Esteban Ribovics in a fantastic little hidden gem of a fight. Unfortunately for him, he ran into Mateusz Rebecki in his next fight and got fucked up with leg kicks and knocked out.


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Al-Selwady makes his UFC debut here. He’s 28 years old, 15-3 with 10 finishes, was the Brave CF and Fury FC Lightweight champion and beat Cage Warriors champ George Hardwick on DWCS in August. I remember a fair few having high hopes for Hardwick going in and pretty much assuming he was UFC bound but Selwady messed plans up. Interested to see how he looks here. Radzhabov isn’t an outrageous debut opponent for him but he’s a tough bastard from the couple of fights I’ve seen. Not exactly like they’re easing Selwady in gently.
 
Anders vs Pickett. TS spot on. The "we need filler" fight of the year. I'm trying to imagine being less excited for any potential fight on the roster.

Yes, WMMA included LOL.
 
Anders vs Pickett. TS spot on. The "we need filler" fight of the year. I'm trying to imagine being less excited for any potential fight on the roster.

Yes, WMMA included LOL.

Honestly, I'm halfway excited for it just because I think the line is way off.
 
I’m surprised Gaziev isn’t more of a favourite (-140), Rozenstruik’s takedown defence and ground game looked terrible against Jailton.

Unless Gaziev is a moron and decides to stand with him, that could end up looking like value.
 
Odds kinda ass, think I'll pass on this card.

How so?

Anders is best just neutralizing and keeping a slow pace unless he lands a bomb. I honestly don't think Pickett is really at a big deficit anywhere. It seems like a close fight to me.
 
Anders is best just neutralizing and keeping a slow pace unless he lands a bomb. I honestly don't think Pickett is really at a big deficit anywhere. It seems like a close fight to me.
Maybe at one point, but Pickett is 2-6 in the UFC, 13-10 as an overall pro and his only two wins saw him employ a gameplan that I don't think will be viable against Anders.

I think Eryk can just control him at worst, and make him quit at best. Anders also beat Daukaus in a grappling match back in december, so him wrestling isn't out of the question.
 
early lines i like

oliveria-180 ko1 the under 1.5 is +155 ill wait for the under 2.5 lines to post
al sewady-dec -150 ov 2.5-135
gaziev-ko 2 -142 un 1.5-180
 
I'm not seeing many dog plays on this card. Wouldn't be surprised if favorites sweep or nearly sweep like 298
 
Shamil by dec or Sub

Id have to tape some past fights to see if Shamil has ever been dropped or rocked before.
 
I don't remember much about Gaziev at all. How's his volume? Does he pressure?

We all know we might see "Frozenstruik" show up, as has happened several times.
 
I'm not seeing many dog plays on this card. Wouldn't be surprised if favorites sweep or nearly sweep like 298
So far on stat capping

Tyson Pedro has a shot. Vitor got dropped in his dwcs fight, he nearly got matched in stats against Anton and lost round 3, Tyson is very inconsistent both when he losses and wins.

Loik has seen better competition and can’t write him off, Abdul has had some questionable losses in 2019.

Not a strong lean but i don’t mind a sacrificial punt play on Pedro for those odds. even a ko prop could be massive given Vitor’s perception of invincibility.
 
By Stosic
auto fade. I found it sus why an undefeated russian is hovering around near pick em odds.

Consider too his whole career is a riddled with a so many cans. its a make or break type fight.

i should say his last couple have been solid competition
 
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I like Radzhabov as a dog. Much more experienced at a higher level, clearly injured in the Rebecki fight and likely to go and get Al-Selwady.
 
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