UFC Vegas 71: Yan vs. Dvalishvili, March 11

[lefontes]

So like a bum version of Jones vs Gane?I have to go hard on Brzeski then,heaven has to give me smth for Gane fucking me up

Bingo, loved this reply. lol

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I don't want to reveal too much, but no one seems to be talking about the Karl Williams vs Brzeski fight. I've seen karl williams fight on the amateur circuit just 2 years ago and I was not very impressed. Brzeski is sliding to greater than 2 to 1 dog, and although he lost to Buday who is not very good, Brzeski striking looked very good and he is definitely the best striker williams has faced thus far. He could easily finish williams. Reading this back maybe i didnt explain everything coherently but lazy to correct. Discuss

Williams usually looks to push a wrestle heavy game plan so any striking on the feet is likely to be short lived. Williams is very physically strong, has smothering top control, and will take his opponents down rinse and repeat as many times as it takes to get them to accept the position.

There were big holes in the grappling of Brzeski when he fought Michal Kita on the regionals in 2019. Brzeski was easily taken down whenever his opponent was able to grab hold of a body lock before the opponent gassed. Williams best takedown is the body lock takedown.

Unless Brzeski knocks Williams out before he shoots he is likely going to get pounded out or lose an extremely lopsided decision.

 

[Esaú Moreira]

I already put 1000 on grant …. Very confident … RA is completely past it

You’re completely underrating Davey boy in my opinion

I have no concerns here at all

Grant is too much busy taking bussiness on his restaurant.

 

[Esaú Moreira]

Hell i might just drop 2 units on Josh Fremd when the price goes up. He only lost to the best. No shame in losing to Fluffy and Robocop. Tresean gore is good also. He’s just not experienced. I’m not sold on this Cedrique kid. Very basic fighter imo. Not impressed in the slightest. Sure he looks intimidating and fast, but he has the early signs of a glass jaw. Talent can only get you so far. Dumas is a certified can crusher, who has he beat? Give me a break

Tresean Gore is good? doing what? Not mma.

 

[rev0lver]

Williams usually looks to push a wrestle heavy game plan so any striking on the feet is likely to be short lived. Williams is very physically strong, has smothering top control, and will take his opponents down rinse and repeat as many times as it takes to get them to accept the position.

There were big holes in the grappling of Brzeski when he fought Michal Kita on the regionals in 2019. Brzeski was easily taken down whenever his opponent was able to grab hold of a body lock before the opponent gassed. Williams best takedown is the body lock takedown.

Unless Brzeski knocks Williams out before he shoots he is likely going to get pounded out or lose an extremely lopsided decision.

100% agree. I was trying to find a reason to bet Brzeski, because the line is indeed wide, but I think Williams wins this all day. Better wrestler at HW wins.

Williams can be a little hittable on the feet, but he has some sharp and powerful striking of his own, and he's not there to just stand and trade anyway. Brzeski has a good jab, but he's more off a volume striker than a power puncher. I don't see him knocking Williams out before Williams is able to implement his gameplan.

 

[lefontes]

Carlston Harris x Jared Gooden.
Gooden replace Nurmagomedov.

 

[BigSteve]

Steve no one here follows your bets or cares smh

well shit might as well retire from gambling

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

well shit might as well retire from gambling

So I’m sarcastic quite a bit, I just want to make sure people know when I’m throwing out things like this 95% of the time I’m being sarcastic.

I think it’s obvious but I just want to make sure. I’m just trying to get some laughs in an otherwise serious forum. Apparently I’ve been accused of trolling so I thought I would clear things up


Anyhow how did the tape go? You switched sides and max bet merab?

 

[BigSteve]

So I’m sarcastic quite a bit, I just want to make sure people know when I’m throwing out things like this 95% of the time I’m being sarcastic.

I think it’s obvious but I just want to make sure. I’m just trying to get some laughs in an otherwise serious forum. Apparently I’ve been accused of trolling so I thought I would clear things up


Anyhow how did the tape go? You switched sides and max bet merab?

all good man I figured it was a troll.

It's Yans fight to lose, that's quite clear if u only watch the Dodson, Stamman, Aldo and Moraes fights. He has always been hittable, and reacts weird to leg kicks. Wobbled by a jab in Stamman's fight, kept eating counters from Moraes until he was eventually dropped. 0/16 on TDDs against Aldo and still dropped round 1 despite Aldo doing nothing. I had him v Stamman and was sweating, lucky it wasn't a split. One judge gave Stamman the first and the other the third round. He has no finishing upside and essentially has to cage push or outhustle someone like Yan for 5 rounds. I guess its possible, not sure I give it more than a 30% chance considering he is losing rounds to lot more inferior fighters. Yans wrestling and getups are elite and he dosent get stuck against the cage, always fights the hands. Yan does start slow and can drop rounds, a lot of the time he is losing to striking volume though, and Merab will be live to eat a big shot throughout 25 minutes. With how much the judges hate Yan Its a clear dog or pass atm. Or sprinkle Merab DEC.

 

[mkess101]

all good man I figured it was a troll.

It's Yans fight to lose, that's quite clear if u only watch the Dodson, Stamman, Aldo and Moraes fights. He has always been hittable, and reacts weird to leg kicks. Wobbled by a jab in Stamman's fight, kept eating counters from Moraes until he was eventually dropped. 0/16 on TDDs against Aldo and still dropped round 1 despite Aldo doing nothing. I had him v Stamman and was sweating, lucky it wasn't a split. One judge gave Stamman the first and the other the third round. He has no finishing upside and essentially has to cage push or outhustle someone like Yan for 5 rounds. I guess its possible, not sure I give it more than a 30% chance considering he is losing rounds to lot more inferior fighters. Yans wrestling and getups are elite and he dosent get stuck against the cage, always fights the hands. Yan does start slow and can drop rounds, a lot of the time he is losing to striking volume though, and Merab will be live to eat a big shot throughout 25 minutes. With how much the judges hate Yan Its a clear dog or pass atm. Or sprinkle Merab DEC.

Seems like he's realized (to a degree) that he's not a great striker and is content to win with cage hugging and fighting the type of fight that fans hate. Throws massive volume, and doesn't even seem to care that he doesn't land at a high clip. Firing strikes out for no other reason than to close distance time after time.

Yan is definitely a slow starter, but giving away the first 2 rounds to an absolute cardio machine like Merab makes the uphill battle massive. Because he won't slow down or tire, so the margin of error becomes zero. Either finish, or fight 3 perfect rounds down the stretch vs a guy who doesn't get tired at all.

Makes me wonder if Yan speeds up his "feeling out" process in this one. I think he'd be wise to do it. Starting slow vs someone like Aldo in a 5 rounder is fine when you know he'll slow down a lot. Can't do it vs someone like Merab.

 

[Rhood]

Does Jonathan Martinez have the "it" factor?
I mean he's supposed to lose to Said Nurmogomedov, right?

Every time I've bet against Martinez, I've lost.
I feel like I'm supposed to bet on him again. (gut instinct)

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Seems like he's realized (to a degree) that he's not a great striker and is content to win with cage hugging and fighting the type of fight that fans hate. Throws massive volume, and doesn't even seem to care that he doesn't land at a high clip. Firing strikes out for no other reason than to close distance time after time.

Yan is definitely a slow starter, but giving away the first 2 rounds to an absolute cardio machine like Merab makes the uphill battle massive. Because he won't slow down or tire, so the margin of error becomes zero. Either finish, or fight 3 perfect rounds down the stretch vs a guy who doesn't get tired at all.

Makes me wonder if Yan speeds up his "feeling out" process in this one. I think he'd be wise to do it. Starting slow vs someone like Aldo in a 5 rounder is fine when you know he'll slow down a lot. Can't do it vs someone like Merab.

Aljo has fought yan twice and that’s merabs main training partner. I’m sure Serra longo will have merab prepared with a good game plan

 

[BigSteve]

Seems like he's realized (to a degree) that he's not a great striker and is content to win with cage hugging and fighting the type of fight that fans hate. Throws massive volume, and doesn't even seem to care that he doesn't land at a high clip. Firing strikes out for no other reason than to close distance time after time.

Yan is definitely a slow starter, but giving away the first 2 rounds to an absolute cardio machine like Merab makes the uphill battle massive. Because he won't slow down or tire, so the margin of error becomes zero. Either finish, or fight 3 perfect rounds down the stretch vs a guy who doesn't get tired at all.

Makes me wonder if Yan speeds up his "feeling out" process in this one. I think he'd be wise to do it. Starting slow vs someone like Aldo in a 5 rounder is fine when you know he'll slow down a lot. Can't do it vs someone like Merab.

there is no guarantee he will lose the first 2 or even the first round. As mentioned, he is losing to long or ellite strikers while making reads. Wont be hard to make a read on someone as sloppy as Merab. He is great at stealing rounds with big shots, and Merab doesn't have the explosive eye-catching shots like Aldo, Suga or even Sterling. Sterling came out like a bat out of hell and was spamming teeps and knees up the middle which dropped Yand made him back up until he found an opening. He still dropped Sterling hard at the end of the first. If you give him openings he will drop you at any point, and Merab is super open always. Its easy to win minutes with cage push against washed/retiring fighters like Dodson and Aldo who legit throw nothing and are happy just to sit against the cage. As I mentioned Aldo still won the first round based on 5 strikes lol. Yan takes it easy at the start, if he finds the reads he can easily drop Merab in the first and win that one as well. He also punishes you every time he stuffs a TD. There will no eyecatching shots along the lines of Sugas knees and long punches or even body kicks. Merab will be bouncing around touching him, mixing in TDs and cage time, Yan will pressure, land big body kicks, leg kicks ( which Merab reacts horrible to ) and big counters once he gets a read. Late in the fight I can easily see him wrestle Merab

 

[jnes]

Does Jonathan Martinez have the "it" factor?
I mean he's supposed to lose to Said Nurmogomedov, right?

Every time I've bet against Martinez, I've lost.
I feel like I'm supposed to bet on him again. (gut instinct)

He can strike with anyone in the division, his kicks are vicious. Said is probably gonna stand with him, his subs come from guys shooting on him and he doesn't actively go for takedowns. 2 TDs in 7 UFC fights. Martinez isn't gonna be shooting takedowns giving up his neck. This is most likely going to be a fun kickboxing match and I like Martinez's more traditional style vs Said who does wild shit even if he's good at it lol. +200 for a guy who's really coming into his own seems like a solid play to me.

I do like FGTD at -140 too.

 

[Bakayoko]

there is no guarantee he will lose the first 2 or even the first round. As mentioned, he is losing to long or ellite strikers while making reads. Wont be hard to make a read on someone as sloppy as Merab. He is great at stealing rounds with big shots, and Merab doesn't have the explosive eye-catching shots like Aldo, Suga or even Sterling. Sterling came out like a bat out of hell and was spamming teeps and knees up the middle which dropped Yand made him back up until he found an opening. He still dropped Sterling hard at the end of the first. If you give him openings he will drop you at any point, and Merab is super open always. Its easy to win minutes with cage push against washed/retiring fighters like Dodson and Aldo who legit throw nothing and are happy just to sit against the cage. As I mentioned Aldo still won the first round based on 5 strikes lol. Yan takes it easy at the start, if he finds the reads he can easily drop Merab in the first and win that one as well. He also punishes you every time he stuffs a TD. There will no eyecatching shots along the lines of Sugas knees and long punches or even body kicks. Merab will be bouncing around touching him, mixing in TDs and cage time, Yan will pressure, land big body kicks, leg kicks ( which Merab reacts horrible to ) and big counters once he gets a read. Late in the fight I can easily see him wrestle Merab

This is my line of thought.Just to add that Yan didn't start slow against O Malley(but that was maybe because of a 3 rounder).And he's not like Aldo where he looks just to defend and disangage,he threaten to grapple and attack with his own takedowns and trips,like he threw Aljo in their first one.The money line is where it should be IMO.

 

[mkess101]

there is no guarantee he will lose the first 2 or even the first round. As mentioned, he is losing to long or ellite strikers while making reads. Wont be hard to make a read on someone as sloppy as Merab. He is great at stealing rounds with big shots, and Merab doesn't have the explosive eye-catching shots like Aldo, Suga or even Sterling. Sterling came out like a bat out of hell and was spamming teeps and knees up the middle which dropped Yand made him back up until he found an opening. He still dropped Sterling hard at the end of the first. If you give him openings he will drop you at any point, and Merab is super open always. Its easy to win minutes with cage push against washed/retiring fighters like Dodson and Aldo who legit throw nothing and are happy just to sit against the cage. As I mentioned Aldo still won the first round based on 5 strikes lol. Yan takes it easy at the start, if he finds the reads he can easily drop Merab in the first and win that one as well. He also punishes you every time he stuffs a TD. There will no eyecatching shots along the lines of Sugas knees and long punches or even body kicks. Merab will be bouncing around touching him, mixing in TDs and cage time, Yan will pressure, land big body kicks, leg kicks ( which Merab reacts horrible to ) and big counters once he gets a read. Late in the fight I can easily see him wrestle Merab

Guess we'll see. Could end up being the case. I do think Merab's striking defense is an issue at distance. Which is why I think he seems to be so intent on sticking to his opponents like glue lately. I think he's hit his stride as a guy who's content to frustrate his opponent rather than hurt them. Yan starts slow regardless of opponent though imo. The closest thing he's fought to Merab was probably Faber, who was "washed/retiring" and Yan still only landed 15 strikes in rd 1. Faber was equally as lackluster, didn't throw or land that much but Merab at the very least will throw volume so Yan will need to actually do something to win rounds. Landing a few big shots will do it yeah, if he gets that done.

In the end, I do favor Yan a bit. So it's definitely not that I'm claiming all sorts of confidence that Merab wins here. I just think the line is too wide.

 

[sonhow]

The only times Yans looked bad or not great are vs Aljos back takes in rematch (that he looked to perform in somekind of flow). I thought he beat OMalley with clear as day 30-27 and I had money on Sean. In general he has got to be one of the unluckiest fighters ever to go 1-3 in his last 4.

 

[Kenny95]

Williams usually looks to push a wrestle heavy game plan so any striking on the feet is likely to be short lived. Williams is very physically strong, has smothering top control, and will take his opponents down rinse and repeat as many times as it takes to get them to accept the position.

There were big holes in the grappling of Brzeski when he fought Michal Kita on the regionals in 2019. Brzeski was easily taken down whenever his opponent was able to grab hold of a body lock before the opponent gassed. Williams best takedown is the body lock takedown.

Unless Brzeski knocks Williams out before he shoots he is likely going to get pounded out or lose an extremely lopsided decision.

Full disclosure I haven't seen his dwcs performance where he supposedly beat some hot prospect that weighed 265 pounds but I watched his amateur fights against some, low, low, low.... low competition as late as 2020 and he looked terrible. Fighting short fat boys that came off the couch and he had pretty much the same build he has right now. My read on williams is that he is a terrible athlete, because based on looks he should have murdered everyone in the amateurs. Brzeski looks way more explosive and athletic based off the 1 fight I watched vs buday.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Full disclosure I haven't seen his dwcs performance where he supposedly beat some hot prospect that weighed 265 pounds but I watched his amateur fights against some, low, low, low.... low competition as late as 2020 and he looked terrible. Fighting short fat boys that came off the couch and he had pretty much the same build he has right now. My read on williams is that he is a terrible athlete, because based on looks he should have murdered everyone in the amateurs. Brzeski looks way more explosive and athletic based off the 1 fight I watched vs buday.

I wouldn't classify Williams as an explosive athlete but he is a big strong dude that can wrestle, has serviceable striking, and most importantly makes good decisions. Theres not a whole lot of depth too his MMA game but its stable across all fights and should be enough in this spot.

Brzeski isn't a bad fighter he just has grappling deficiencies that Williams should be able to exploit thats all there is too it.

 

[Tebowned]

Full disclosure I haven't seen his dwcs performance where he supposedly beat some hot prospect that weighed 265 pounds but I watched his amateur fights against some, low, low, low.... low competition as late as 2020 and he looked terrible. Fighting short fat boys that came off the couch and he had pretty much the same build he has right now. My read on williams is that he is a terrible athlete, because based on looks he should have murdered everyone in the amateurs. Brzeski looks way more explosive and athletic based off the 1 fight I watched vs buday.

His DWCS opponent jimmy lawson was a really good wrestler for PSU(Bo Nickal, phil Davis etc). Didn’t win a natty or anything.

I think he just didn’t take mma seriously. He looked like dog shit and got outwrestled.