UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

[Soccer Steve]

Kevin Holland is a weirdo. It's really hard to look good against him. Just ask other dummies like DiC and GM3. He can do stupid things. But he's also very talented. Now he's fighting a step (maybe two) down. Unless he's added a layer of TDD he's probably going to get taken down. But he won't get held there. I think there are a number of ways he can find a finish or stamp down a decision. Allen basically has no hope of finishing this and I don't think he has much chance striking either. Allen has to, what?, wrestle for 15 minutes. Don't see it. -160 is a great price on the much better fighter.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Weidman loses his size and reach advantage by going up in weight but will his durability increase as much as it will have to?

Notwithstanding that the these examples are complete 0's defensively, but I think Luke Rockhold and James Vick (RIP in peace) finally put this one to bed. It does stand to reason that not draining your body to a skeletal level can only be good for you but it sure seems to me that a chin is just a chin. I think we have to go by what we have proof of: Weidman will still be fragile.

 

[Broe.]

Barber at evens is a gift.

Yeah look how fast robertson folded vs mayra bueno silva, robertson might have some success early but Barber will eventually overpower her.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

(RIP in peace)

Rest in peace in peace?

 

[Jordan3399]

I think people forget how good striker Bermudez is. His ground game is obviously very good but I liked his boxing against Kenny.

Siver took Rosa down 3 times. Rosa been taken down in all of his UFC fights except the last one where Burgos didn't even try to take him down.

When he wasn't gassed, Kenney, a flyweight grappler was outstriking him. His striking isn't good at all and that was at 135 where he had a natural power edge with his size.

Rosa's TDD isn't great but it's a lot better than Bermudez who has never stuffed a single TD in the UFC. You're just quoting stats again about him being takendown and not giving any context. Siver isn't a bad grappler at all and that was a short notice fight for Rosa 5 years ago. Prime Siver would probably dominate Bermudez.

Not to mention Bermudez is a purple belt guard player now up a weight class against a solid black belt. This is a great style match up for Rosa.

 

[Jordan3399]

I think the Bermudez line is easily the best line on the card.

You sure? He's up a weight class and will be trying to sub a black belt off his back. He got away with that style vs mediocre competition at 135 but this seems like a great style match up for Rosa.

 

[rev0lver]

Not sure what the confidence here is on Darren Stewart. Yeah I get the criticism of Winn's performance against Spiceboy, but don't forget Spiceboy was practically outboxing Stewart for a while when they fought. Winn still won out easily even if he caught him on an oddly-durable night. Stewart definitely does not have the ground game that Spicely has too, and Winn could incorporate a more aggressive wrestling game here. I still don't think Stewart's that good, and he has little here beyond a reach advantage, though of course the gap there is probably significant. Winn's line is looking more and more attractive now that they're at evens.

I also think Tanner Boser's line is being slept on here. Boser is strong, durable, and has surprisingly decent cardio for the weight class. 1 (vindicated) KO loss in 22 HW fights, has made it to 11 3-round or 5-round decisions. Spitz is not that durable and not very good in general. Surprised that Spitz opened as a moderate favorite. Boser as a small favorite is still pretty good imo.

 

[Xuh]

i heard that grasso was fucked by rodriguez?

There was a photo of them together at some UFC promotional event in Mexico a while ago. Because of course the Mexican UFC fighters attending the Mexican UFC promo event would get their photo taken together. The internet turned this into '0mG rODriGueZ is BaNgiNg Hur LolZ' cause that's what the internet does

Grasso is dating some other sub-UFC level Mexican MMA guy, although why when she could have a Sherdog red belt (like me) instead, I don't know.

 

[Xuh]

Closing my eyes, holding my nose, clenching my jaw and Maxbetting Meatball Molly McCann at odds of 1.29

 

[chemmy]

Not sure what the confidence here is on Darren Stewart. Yeah I get the criticism of Winn's performance against Spiceboy, but don't forget Spiceboy was practically outboxing Stewart for a while when they fought. Winn still won out easily even if he caught him on an oddly-durable night. Stewart definitely does not have the ground game that Spicely has too, and Winn could incorporate a more aggressive wrestling game here. I still don't think Stewart's that good, and he has little here beyond a reach advantage, though of course the gap there is probably significant. Winn's line is looking more and more attractive now that they're at evens.

I also think Tanner Boser's line is being slept on here. Boser is strong, durable, and has surprisingly decent cardio for the weight class. 1 (vindicated) KO loss in 22 HW fights, has made it to 11 3-round or 5-round decisions. Spitz is not that durable and not very good in general. Surprised that Spitz opened as a moderate favorite. Boser as a small favorite is still pretty good imo.

I like Winn here too. I have to assume he’ll be looking to wrestle. It’s a completely different style matchup for him than Spicely was.

Some of the Stewart confidence might be coming from his two last underdog wins over Bevon Lewis and Charles Byrd, both of whom in hindsight were clearly overrated IMO.

 

[Broe.]

I like Winn here too. I have to assume he’ll be looking to wrestle. It’s a completely different style matchup for him than Spicely was.

Some of the Stewart confidence might be coming from his two last underdog wins over Bevon Lewis and Charles Byrd, both of whom in hindsight were clearly overrated IMO.

yeah also lewis was giving Stewart exactly the slow-paced fight he loves!!

 

[Gugabe]

I think people forget how good striker Bermudez is. His ground game is obviously very good but I liked his boxing against Kenny.

Siver took Rosa down 3 times. Rosa been taken down in all of his UFC fights except the last one where Burgos didn't even try to take him down.

Bermudez is an awful striker with nil functional defense who relied on walking through dudes shots to land his power. Looked fine against Kenney with 25 pounds on him but Rosa is very capable of tearing his ass up

I think the Bermudez line is easily the best line on the card.

I think you'd be surprised

Weidman chin issue overblown. It's not like he's been getting jabbed out

 

[ApplesVild]

Anyone picking Wideman here needs to reasses, he will not win.

 

[RichBoyKermit]

Kevin Holland is a weirdo. It's really hard to look good against him. Just ask other dummies like DiC and GM3. He can do stupid things. But he's also very talented. Now he's fighting a step (maybe two) down. Unless he's added a layer of TDD he's probably going to get taken down. But he won't get held there. I think there are a number of ways he can find a finish or stamp down a decision. Allen basically has no hope of finishing this and I don't think he has much chance striking either. Allen has to, what?, wrestle for 15 minutes. Don't see it. -160 is a great price on the much better fighter.

Yeah great analysis. "Holland has terrible TDD. But Allen has to what, wrestle to win? Betting Holland"

 

[ApplesVild]

Holland ends up on the mat a lot but it's almost like he let's it happen, guys guy him down, get to dominant position and then he just slips out and ends up on top.

 

[Sono07]

Notwithstanding that the these examples are complete 0's defensively, but I think Luke Rockhold and James Vick (RIP in peace) finally put this one to bed. It does stand to reason that not draining your body to a skeletal level can only be good for you but it sure seems to me that a chin is just a chin. I think we have to go by what we have proof of: Weidman will still be fragile.

Still brushing up on Reyes, can't help but agree though. Weidman has been KOed hard several times in the past few years. That KO by Romero was brutal. Not to disrespect Chris with the comparison but that knee really reminded me of Masvidal v Askren. Moving up a weight class doesn't seem like a great idea either.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Yeah great analysis. "Holland has terrible TDD. But Allen has to what, wrestle to win? Betting Holland"

First message ever and it's to throw one-liner misquoted shade. Lol I love this fucking place. But don't be a donkey. Argue with me instead.

What you neglected to include in that quote is "...for 15 minutes." He doesn't have the gas tank for it. In their flowing, submission-over-position, shitfest GM3 looked like a ghoul after R1 and Holland wasn't even breathing heavy in R3.

Also, Allen might get him down but he won't keep him down. He was able to easily sweep GM3 a number of times but twice Holland got himself in a very dominant top position. If he had a little more time in either sequence, he may have finished the fight. On the flip side, in two of his regional fights, Allen is swept repeatedly. In one of them he is mounted and nearly finished. His three loses are to Eryk Anders, Trevin Giles and Anthony Hernandez. All 3 are in the UFC and I think Kevin Holland would give all 3 big trouble.

This is a step down for Holland and a big step up for Allen. That actually scares me, now that I've written it out...

 

[ill800]

props are out gents

 

[ill800]

Still brushing up on Reyes, can't help but agree though. Weidman has been KOed hard several times in the past few years. That KO by Romero was brutal. Not to disrespect Chris with the comparison but that knee really reminded me of Masvidal v Askren. Moving up a weight class doesn't seem like a great idea either.

Reyes looked to have about 1 round of cardio vs volkan. Weidman can put a wrestle heavy game plan on him and gas him out just as quickly

think weidman will have the better cardio and his chin and cardio issues are more due to his weight cut

 

[Austisthunder]

Reyes looked to have about 1 round of cardio vs volkan. Weidman can put a wrestle heavy game plan on him and gas him out just as quickly

think weidman will have the better cardio and his chin and cardio issues are more due to his weight cut

Can we kill the “going up in weight helps cardio” meme now

Im open to it possibly helping durability but theres zero reason to say it will help cardio, if anything now that he doesn’t have to be in tip top shape to make 185 it’s possible he looks less athletic out there tbh