UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

[ApplesVild]

Lol Holland sucks balls my man. Got gift decisions against Di Chirico (one of the worst guys in the division) and GM3.

Holland is very good.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

He's pretty hyped, I haven't got around to watching him yet, though.

Can't be that hyped if I've never heard of him.

Edit* lol not that I'm saying that I'm some kind of mma sommelier.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Can't be that hyped if I've never heard of him.

Edit* lol not that I'm saying that I'm some kind of mma sommelier.

All his wins are against people with winning records in decent regional promotions, so he's probably at least somewhat decent.

 

[Jordan3399]

For one, I think Bermudez will probably still be the bigger fighter in there. Rosa is not a big 145 lbs fighter. I also think Bermudez's grappling is a lot better than Rosa. Rosa may be a black belt, but I have not been very impressed with his grappling. He spazzes a lot fishing for subs that aren't there to make himself look very active. He definitely gives up position too. He'll also willingly give up takedowns as he thinks his bottom game is better than it is. Especially with how much he spams kicks. I think Bermudez will end up on top of him and likely on his back at some point.

Let's also not forget that Rosa has only had 2 fights in over 4 years. Think about this - since Bochniak fought Rosa on extremely short notice, Bochniak has had 5 more fights to Rosa's one more fight. Since July of 2016 Rosa has had 2 fights, Manny has had 9 fights. It's pretty clear Rosa is more concerned with his culinary career now than actually fighting. He's probably only taking this fight since it is in Boston.

I think Rosa should be if anything heavier than Bermudez still. He cut from 175 for his UFC debut and was in shape while Bermudez fight night weight was 165 vs Kenney. Even if they weigh the same that's an advantage for Rosa when Bermudez has been so used to outmuscling smaller opponents.

As for the activity and how much he cares I think you're underestimating Rosa. Check his Instagram, he's been in Thailand a lot this year training his striking and clearly still cares about getting better. Even before Burgos he had a fairly significant layoff and came back great and was up 2 rounds in a striking match before getting caught.

All the criticisms of Rosa's skills/fight IQ are the same for Bermudez if not worse for Bermudez. Rosa can give up position but Bermudez has literally never stuffed a TD in the UFC. Rosa has bad tendencies but Bermudez does them all the same and worse. He's the favourite here, smaller guy, worse BJJ and most likely worse striker. I think at a minimum the line should be flipped when aside from activity there's nothing in Bermudez favour, and activity is likely a non-factor when Rosa's never had an issue with a layoff before and has been active training and improving.

 

[Jordan3399]

Again those two are extremely hard hitters. It's not like he's being wobbled by jabs.

Reyes probably hits harder than most of the guys Weidman's been fighting, he's a big LHW with solid boxing and there's a clear trend in Weidmans fights of him getting hurt badly. I don't see how anyone could have any confidence in him doing well or even surviving the striking here.

 

[Broe.]

All his wins are against people with winning records in decent regional promotions, so he's probably at least somewhat decent.

Brady's odds are justified, he looks really solid. Mcgee on the other hand looks to be about done, reaching Ben Saunders' territory.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Lol Holland sucks balls my man. Got gift decisions against Di Chirico (one of the worst guys in the division) and GM3.

Dude are you on drugs ? He beat them easily

 

[Oblivian]

I think Rosa should be if anything heavier than Bermudez still. He cut from 175 for his UFC debut and was in shape while Bermudez fight night weight was 165 vs Kenney. Even if they weigh the same that's an advantage for Rosa when Bermudez has been so used to outmuscling smaller opponents.

As for the activity and how much he cares I think you're underestimating Rosa. Check his Instagram, he's been in Thailand a lot this year training his striking and clearly still cares about getting better. Even before Burgos he had a fairly significant layoff and came back great and was up 2 rounds in a striking match before getting caught.

All the criticisms of Rosa's skills/fight IQ are the same for Bermudez if not worse for Bermudez. Rosa can give up position but Bermudez has literally never stuffed a TD in the UFC. Rosa has bad tendencies but Bermudez does them all the same and worse. He's the favourite here, smaller guy, worse BJJ and most likely worse striker. I think at a minimum the line should be flipped when aside from activity there's nothing in Bermudez favour, and activity is likely a non-factor when Rosa's never had an issue with a layoff before and has been active training and improving.

You really think Rosa has better BJJ than Bermudez? What makes you say that?

 

[chemmy]

Dude are you on drugs ? He beat them easily

I like Holland here myself, but he was very fortunate to get those decisions. They were coinflips at best.

 

[BigNick100]

Can't be that hyped if I've never heard of him.

Edit* lol not that I'm saying that I'm some kind of mma sommelier.

Very well rounded fighter. Has good cardio, decent striking, pushes a pace, can use wrestling and is a black belt in jits. Has faced decent competition and not just beating cans. Trains at Renzo Gracie Philly and is very close with Eddie Alvarez who has lots of praise for him. Last fight is on Fightpass as well

 

[TrueAscension]

I said I would never underestimate Gillian after her last fight. She seems to have a solid take you down and control you game. I know Barber is strong but she is very wild and dosent seem to be bothered to stop takedowns, focuses more on scrambles. Kind of reminds me of Macedos ground game. To me its like fighters who use head movement and a low guard, they get away with it untill they don't.

Gillian controlled and finished a big and strong BJJ world champ in Frota. Robertson might catch her in the transitions if she insists on using strength to get up and dosent watch her neck. This is all through memory though, havent done research as of yet.

Frota is a completely different fighter stylistically and Barber's TDD hasn't really even been tested yet. That remains to be seen but she is very, very strong and has been training with Askren. Obviously anyone who gets taken to the ground and doesn't watch their neck is going to get subbed. Also, swinging wildly is a vast overstatement. She has quite a lot of precision (and speed) in her striking.

 

[ApplesVild]

You really think Rosa has better BJJ than Bermudez? What makes you say that?

He's got a black belt bro OMG!

 

[ill800]

Re: Sean Brady



Why is Court McGee such a big underdog?

Probably because he looked like something was wrong with him in his last fight.
Didn’t look into it but if he was healthy and wasn’t going through anything for that fight, he looked washed up

 

[Austisthunder]

Im late to the party betting on the other fights to this card due to hoes acting up but Rosa , pierce , Court magoo, have/ had value imo

Barber fight is interesting because of Likely advantage each way for both,
I think im hitting barber with Robertson sub hedge if it looks decent

Also Bochniak line is a steal IF (!) he is aggressive like vs zabit

 

[ill800]

Frota is a completely different fighter stylistically and Barber's TDD hasn't really even been tested yet. That remains to be seen but she is very, very strong and has been training with Askren. Obviously anyone who gets taken to the ground and doesn't watch their neck is going to get subbed. Also, swinging wildly is a vast overstatement. She has quite a lot of precision (and speed) in her striking.

I think I can pretty confidentially say frota is better than maycee on the ground and is stronger than her.

Gillian dealt with her pretty easily.

And you say she’s been training with askren. What is this statement based off of? That Instagram picture? Or do you have more info?

for all we know that could’ve been for a day or a week.

in wmma especially, I’m going to lean towards the better wrestler with a better ground game

I favor Gillian, so the gift line for me was getting her at +170

 

[Jordan3399]

You really think Rosa has better BJJ than Bermudez? What makes you say that?

Rosa's a legit black belt under Ricardo Liborio while Bermudez is a purple belt that likes to sub undersized guys off his back. Bermudez has some solid submissions but thats mostly it. Rosa isn't amazing but his control, passing and sub defence and overall BJJ game is far more functional and well rounded. Bermudez lacks a lot of the positional skills necessary to be a great grappler and instead has been compensating with size. Even wrestling most of his TDs are from crashing into the clinch and muscling smaller guys down from there.

For example even when Bermudez was trying to control someone like Casey Kenney (who is a decent grappler tbf) with a 20 pound weight advantage he struggled and let him up easily or got reversed with sloppy pass attempts and weak top pressure. He could get TDs alright with his size advantage but beyond that he just wasn't that effective. Even on his back those constant sub attempts open him to getting his guard passed easily which I can see Rosa doing here. And once you get passed his guard he's far less effective.

Incomparison Rosa did a good job taking down guys like Yair and controlling him, defending his sub attempts and almost taking his back. Of course in the end he dived for a dumb kneebar, but overall I liked the control and game he showed a lot on a big scrambly guy. I think the way they match up benefits Rosa a lot, I really think skillwise the only possible advantage Bermudez probably has is in his sub attempts but without any other edge in his game I don't see him having a reliable path to victory.

 

[Oblivian]

Rosa's a legit black belt under Ricardo Liborio while Bermudez is a purple belt that likes to sub undersized guys off his back. Bermudez has some solid submissions but thats mostly it. Rosa isn't amazing but his control, passing and sub defence and overall BJJ game is far more functional and well rounded. Bermudez lacks a lot of the positional skills necessary to be a great grappler and instead has been compensating with size. Even wrestling most of his TDs are from crashing into the clinch and muscling smaller guys down from there.

For example even when Bermudez was trying to control someone like Casey Kenney (who is a decent grappler tbf) with a 20 pound weight advantage he struggled and let him up easily or got reversed with sloppy pass attempts and weak top pressure. He could get TDs alright with his size advantage but beyond that he just wasn't that effective. Even on his back those constant sub attempts open him to getting his guard passed easily which I can see Rosa doing here. And once you get passed his guard he's far less effective.

Incomparison Rosa did a good job taking down guys like Yair and controlling him, defending his sub attempts and almost taking his back. Of course in the end he dived for a dumb kneebar, but overall I liked the control and game he showed a lot on a big scrambly guy. I think the way they match up benefits Rosa a lot, I really think skillwise the only possible advantage Bermudez probably has is in his sub attempts but without any other edge in his game I don't see him having a reliable path to victory.

We are definitely just seeing things different here. I view Rosa as a sloppy grappler who favors submission over position, but he's not really good at snagging subs. Bermudez is extremely aggressive as well and will jump on subs over position, but he is far more dangerous with the subs. I honestly think people are giving Bermudez a black mark due to his loss to Kenny, but it should be very clear at this point that Kenny is an outstanding grappler. People should have realized that going into the Bermudez fight (I bet Kenny in that one) after his Borg fight. Outgrappling Borg is a great achievement.

I realize a guy like Bermudez can be neutralized and outgrappled, but I don't think that fits Rosa's aggressive style at all. I don't really view Rosa as a major threat standing either. What he's great at is keeping busy standing and appearing busy on the ground. But the thing is he is very aggressive, and I think that plays right into Bermudez's hands.

 

[Sono07]

Reyes may get a little sloppy and lose volume in the later rounds but he is still sharp and powerful. He uses angles very well, that OSP fight was almost a last second KO if he hadn't walked off

 

[SolarSeiko]

I think there's a stronger case that going up hurts cardio. RDA said that it took a few fights to adjust to his new body at 170 and manage his cardio, and that he gassed himself out vs Saffiedine in his first fight at the weight class. Then Kevin Lee went on to gas himself out in about 3 minutes in his 170 debut against RDA.

And it intuitively makes sense that more weight = worse cardio whether it's fat or muscle.

man i just wanted to say that was a really insightful comment. there is no way chris has improved cardio with more fat/muscle. and because of this im leaning towards reyes. The only thing im worried about this how good is reyes' TDD vs weidman's wrestling at 205?

 

[SolarSeiko]

I think Weidman having a glass chin is completely overblown.

Rockhold's GnP would've KO'd so many fighters, still to this day I think that was a fucking awful stoppage. And Weidman never went out.

Romero's knee would've knocked out a fucking brown bear. Not to mention Weidman got kneed 3 times in that sequence.

The Souza KO was just a fucking weird spot, it wasn't even his chin.

Weidman has taken a lot of time off, and if this turns into a slop fest where both are gassed, it favors Weidman. Reyes wont be able to stop the takedown if this reaches round 3.

Reyes can for sure crack him, but if this turns into a sloppy fight because they're both gassed, it favors Weidman. Reyes wont be able to defend TDs in rd3 and beyond, and Weidman should sub him.

5u on Weidman at +130, he's still my boy.

Maybe it's not blown out but don't think you think Chris has taken A LOT of damage recently?
The Luke fight was weird to me, RD 3 Weidman was doing well and Luke looked gassed as fuck for some reason......and then that stupid wheel kick and it was OVER. In this youtube clip, it says Weidman absorbed 55 strikes at the end of round 3.
Into the 4th round, once it got to the ground and Luke easily got full mount, it was clear Weidman wasn't going anywhere. He wasn't near a KO but the guy was finished, didn't do anything at all, no attempt to escape mount or anything.


I'm thinking Weidman has absorbed too much damage over his last few fights...and a bunch of unseen damage in the training room. He went from KOing Anderson Silva, dec Lyoto and deflated Vitor to losing miserably multiple times. And he's 35 and hasn't fought in a year, not even a tuneup fight for 205. Unless Reyes comes in with shit cardio and zero take down defense...I think Reyes wins by decision.

** Reyes fights with his hands low, maybe that will benefit the take down defense. And Weidman will be using a lot more energy trying to take down a guy that big.