UFC on ESPN+ 33 Smith vs Teixeira Official Bets

[Sadistics]

i thought about strictly playing his ko line, as I thought that had much better value than his ml because if it goes 3 rounds vettori is likely to get the decision for reasons stated.

I have $50 on his ko line and $130 on the ml and I like the play. It’s A little more than what I planned on buying into his ml.

I actually see it the opposite, Roberson decision is the same as his ML to me, Vettori is indestructible

 

[2020Tracked]

From what I've seen Kings MMA have been business as usual so Vettori shoukd have been getting good training in too. Don't know what the weight miss from Roberson is really saying, only 1.5lbs but it seems to have boosted Vettori's confidence.

 

[mkess101]

Didn't cap as much as I wanted on this one, but the benefit of making plays for peanuts is that I can throw in a few bets with no tape and fuzzy memories and not worry too much about it. Gonna try not to do it much because even though the $ doesn't matter much, I still want to see how sharp my capping actually is and putting in a bunch of random BS bets that I didn't cap will skew it, I'll either do poorly with them and jack my results up to the bad side, or get lucky and get an artificial bump on bets I might not have made had I done the research. But I am gonna do a few because...quarantine and stuff (although seems maybe it will end soon?)

Smith itd -115 to win $20
Rothwell NSC -105 to win $20
OSP dec +305 for $20
Dober dec +275 for $20
Simon -157 to win $20
Simon dec +120 for $20
Roberson +170 for $20
Lins rd 1 +275 for $20
Lins dec +355 for $20
Johnson dec +175 for $20
Eubanks dec -135 to win $20
Morales -175 to win $20
Azure dec +125 for $20
Sherman -155 for $20

Might add in a few more if I can find any time today at all to watch tape. My Lins bets seem at odds on the surface but I liked the lines on both and I have a philosophy about Arlovski (not scientific but going from memory and the little tape I watched of him recently) in that he will trade and let his hands go a bit early when he's fresh but settles in and is fully content to point fight and avoid exchanges after about the first 3-4 minutes.

 

[BigSteve]

Ike KO $43 to win 100

Morales KO/Dec $278 to win 200
Benitez DEC $24 to win 100

Eubanks + Dern $218 for 200 ( dont know why i played this, a random and shit WMMA multy lol )

Kelleher/Azure start RD2 + Borg/Simon rd3 $356 to win 200

Kelleher/Azure start RD3 + Arlovski/Lins start RD2 + Borg/Simon RD2 $87 to win 100

Lins $264 to win 150
Arlovski DEC $40 to win 120

Vettori/Robertson start RD3 + Borg/Simon RD3 $121 to win 100

Smith $282 to win 200

 

[LEMONZEST]

Nope. He got really pissed when he got limited and bailed. He was putting all kinds of time into capping, then got hit with low limits same as I did. Except for him it was a bigger part of his life, and it was on multiple sites.

Too bad too, everyone liked EZ and respected him as a mod.

EZ leaving was the Sherdog version of losing a parent... lol. EZ is the OG goat capper IMO. I would have loved to tail him if I could ever figure out the format he used to post his bets lol. Great dude.

 

[mkess101]

EZ leaving was the Sherdog version of losing a parent... lol. EZ is the OG goat capper IMO. I would have loved to tail him if I could ever figure out the format he used to post his bets lol. Great dude.

No doubt. I was honestly surpised he didn't get limited sooner. He was smart about spreading his action around but as soon as he hit a hot streak they stomped on him hard.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Rothwell NSC -120 $240
Dober/Hernandez O2.5 -162 $162
Simon -150 $150
Simon NSC -165 $330
Sherman -155 $77
Eubanks DEC -120 $60


Kinda feels like a weird card for betting. I want to bet more but my better judgement is telling me to wait for better spots on other cards.

 

[LEMONZEST]

No doubt. I was honestly surpised he didn't get limited sooner. He was smart about spreading his action around but as soon as he hit a hot streak they stomped on him hard.

One of my dreams is to move outside Vegas like maybe Henderson or Summerlin area and then just cap fights and chill by the pool. Every Friday head into the city and place bets at the sports books. If you spend the time capping there is no reason you couldn't do pretty well. The hard part is that for the most part betting in Vegas really restricts playing any props. You are stuck with betting over/unders and ML plays.

 

[migeru29]

post 'em

What are yours?

 

[Broe.]

benitez 400$ x 2.5
Johnson 300$ x2
Dober 600$ x 1.91
Lins 300$ x 1.67
Borg 500$ x 2.5
Rothwell by sub 50$ x 20
Texeira by finish 200$ x 3.75

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

What are yours?

Many people on Reddit are crying for his picks but he hasn't posted in awhile. They offer different reasons but who knows what's true or trolling.

 

[mkess101]

Didn't cap as much as I wanted on this one, but the benefit of making plays for peanuts is that I can throw in a few bets with no tape and fuzzy memories and not worry too much about it. Gonna try not to do it much because even though the $ doesn't matter much, I still want to see how sharp my capping actually is and putting in a bunch of random BS bets that I didn't cap will skew it, I'll either do poorly with them and jack my results up to the bad side, or get lucky and get an artificial bump on bets I might not have made had I done the research. But I am gonna do a few because...quarantine and stuff (although seems maybe it will end soon?)

Smith itd -115 to win $20
Rothwell NSC -105 to win $20
OSP dec +305 for $20
Dober dec +275 for $20
Simon -157 to win $20
Simon dec +120 for $20
Roberson +170 for $20
Lins rd 1 +275 for $20
Lins dec +355 for $20
Johnson dec +175 for $20
Eubanks dec -135 to win $20
Morales -175 to win $20
Azure dec +125 for $20
Sherman -155 for $20

Might add in a few more if I can find any time today at all to watch tape. My Lins bets seem at odds on the surface but I liked the lines on both and I have a philosophy about Arlovski (not scientific but going from memory and the little tape I watched of him recently) in that he will trade and let his hands go a bit early when he's fresh but settles in and is fully content to point fight and avoid exchanges after about the first 3-4 minutes.

Added:

Smith rd 5 +2100 for $10
Texiera sub +475 for $10
Moras sub +1600 for $5
Moras rd 3 +3400 for $5
Dober NSC -150 to win $20
Fights go the distance over 7.5 +1250 for $10
Fights go the distance over 8.5 +5750 for $10

 

[Conor McGregoat]

$19000 to win $15000 Dober

 

[Sono07]

Shame that Vettori fight got called off. Baby K was looking rough on the scale oh well.
Feels good to be back so soon.

●Azure 5u for 2.5u
I think Hunters boxing and TDD should help control the pace.

●Dober 1.25u for 1u
Looks like Hernandez may have had a rough weight cut

●Simon 2.5u for 1.5u
I think his power will be a big factor here. Hopefully his conditioning holds up.

Parlays
●Simon +Eubanks 1.5u for 1.5u
●Smith + Eubanks + Simon NSC 3u for 6u
●Smith + Eubanks + Azure + Sherman + Dober NSC 1.5u for 11.5u
●Dober+ Simon NSC+ Dober NSC 1.5u for 5u

 

[im a clitasauras rex]

5 fight acca borg,johnson,azure,dober,smith parley is what im going with see a good few on simon i dont see it borg has beaten better guys and simon is coming off 2 losses

 

[mkess101]

Added:

Smith rd 5 +2100 for $10
Texiera sub +475 for $10
Moras sub +1600 for $5
Moras rd 3 +3400 for $5
Dober NSC -150 to win $20
Fights go the distance over 7.5 +1250 for $10
Fights go the distance over 8.5 +5750 for $10

And...a couple more LMAO:

Rothwell/OSP goes distance +130 for $20
Fights go the distance over 5.5 +140 for $20

 

[hugdeeznuts]

Glover itd
Michael Johnson
OSP
Sherman
Kelleher
Eubanks/Morales
Lins
Ray Borg
Hernandez

 

[DevilsPt2]

2U AZURE -165
0.5U ARLOVSKI +175
0.5U TEXEIRA +170
0.5U BORG +150
0.5U BENITEZ +150
0.5U ROTHWELL +120

Had Vettori at -160 for 2u. Going to play Johnson for 0.5u if he hits +money again.

 

[mkess101]

2U AZURE -165
0.5U ARLOVSKI +175
0.5U TEXEIRA +170
0.5U BORG +150
0.5U BENITEZ +150
0.5U ROTHWELL +120

Had Vettori at -160 for 2u. Going to play Johnson for 0.5u if he hits +money again.

Dog huntin' tonight huh? BOL man.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Taped 3.5 fights thanks to the quick turnaround. Looked at enough of Morales-Benitez to decide that Benitez is a bad play and Morales is probably value at -155, but not enough to pull the trigger. Might throw a tiny amount on Eubanks ML just for fun, but in the meantime,

3u on OSP at -127 (might hate myself for not going heavier)
1.9u on Lins at -190 (awful price and I would have risked much more at -140 let alone +100)