UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira - official beta

Dern (-177) $138.50 to win $78.25
Loopy (-158, -150) $92.40 to win $60.00

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

Rebecki R1 or R2 (-135) $33.74 to win $25.00

How many main card fights end inside the distance?
Zero (+100000) $15.00 to win $15000.00
One (+4000) $8.00 to win $320.00
Two (+700) $10.00 to win $70.00
 
Last edited:
Ricci-Godinez FGTD/Gordon-Madsen FGTD/Mateusz Rebecki (+125)
Borjas-Van FGTD (+150)
Sergei Pavlovich O.5 (+150)
Jiri Prochazka O1.5 (+225)
Sergei Pavlovich O1.5 (+400)
Jessica Andrade by Decision (+425)
Matt Frevola by Decision (+900)
Sergei Pavlovich Round 3-5 KO/TKO (+1100)
 
Last edited:
£25 Dern rd 2 +550 to win £137.50
£304 Pat -107 to win £279.68
£125 Godinez decision +110 to win £137.50
£125 Frevola +194 to win £242.50
£55.56 Buzukja +225 to win £125

£50 Loopy, Gordon, Pat +324 to win £162
 
Last edited:
J.Prochazka +105 3U
S.Pavlovich -104 3U
M.Frevola +195 1U
 
Ricci
Frevola
Andrade
Costa
Jiri
Sabatini

Andrade and Frevola are biggest plays of the night... will add more depending on how drunk I get. Andrade is a terrible matchup for Dern. Frevola is horribly underrated.
 
lost last event not much didnt do any no chance parlays due to work

Buzuka+210 for 125
Van/Borjas-UN 2.5-135 for 50
sadkyov-140 for 250
Roberts/Rebecki-UN 1.5+105 for 50
ricci+155 for 250
erceg-185 for 250
lopez/sabbatini-over 1,5-150 for 50
saint denis/frveola-un 1.5-140 for 50
dern/andrade-ov 1.5-145 for 50
prozchaka+110 for 250

bets of luck to all
 
Erceg $150 -188
Loopy $100 -190
Castaneda $50 -135
Lopes $50 -110
Borshev $25 +110
Frevola $25 +190
 
All my action on PrizePicks and Underdog.

PrizePicks:

Ingram (NHL-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes $25 to pay $75
Edwards (NBA-won)+Aspinall/Sergei under 5 minutes $25 to pay $75
Middleton (NBA-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Rebeki over 1.5 TD's+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $15 to pay $150
Protected play (no risk-site refunds if bet doesn't cash) Jurkic (NBA-won)+Rebecki over 1.5 TD's+Aspinall over 76.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $50 to pay $1250
Pereira over 87.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS $25 to pay $75 (Pereira over here is a hedge for my Underdog action on his under FS because the scoring between the two sites is so different that both can easily cash with an early Pereira stoppage)

Underdog:
Godinez over 63.5 sig strikes+Aspinall over 49.55 FS $17 to pay $51
Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $40 to pay $120
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $15 to pay $90
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola TD spread vs BSD of +2 (BSD would need to get 3+ more TD's than Frevola for this to lose, 2 more is a push) $27 to pay $81
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 63.5 sig strikes+Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola +2 TD spread+Borschev -3.5 sig strike spread vs Sadykhov $20 to pay $400
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Jacobs (NFL free square, over 0.5 yards) $10 to pay $30
Edwards (NBA-won)+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30
St. Brown (NFL) under 84.5 yards+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30

Obviously my most confident play is Pereira under 72.55 fantasy score on Underdog. For reference, a first round finish is worth 50 points. Sig strike landed is 0.5 points. Knockdown is 10 points. Takedown 5 points, submission attempt 4 points.

So a first round finish with a knockdown and 20 sig strikes landed for Pereira would still only score him 70 points and stay under.

GL all!
 
Placed this right before the co-main, didn't do any straight bets tonight but lost a 8 leg parlay because of Dern so I felt a little tilted

Screenshot_20231112_003426_Gallery.jpg
 
guesswhoseback said:
lost last event not much didnt do any no chance parlays due to work

Buzuka+210 for 125
Van/Borjas-UN 2.5-135 for 50
sadkyov-140 for 250
Roberts/Rebecki-UN 1.5+105 for 50
ricci+155 for 250
erceg-185 for 250
lopez/sabbatini-over 1,5-150 for 50
saint denis/frveola-un 1.5-140 for 50
dern/andrade-ov 1.5-145 for 50
prozchaka+110 for 250

bets of luck to all
Click to expand...

Lost
 
svmr_db said:
Well I was essentially holding a -230 line @ -118 odds so long term it was in my best interest to let it ride, glad it worked out lol.

Def started to believe the fight could go longer when I was watching as Jiri's output wasn't as high as I expected.
Click to expand...

What? I mean if you had dern to close out a parlay and an 8 teamer at that let's say to win 500$ why didn't u put 50 on Andrade or whatever you want?
 
guesswhoseback said:
What? I mean if you had dern to close out a parlay and an 8 teamer at that let's say to win 500$ why didn't u put 50 on Andrade or whatever you want?
Click to expand...

Ahh I thought you meant the one I won. Nah Dern wasn't closing the parlay, there was one more leg after that.
 
B.Goetz said:
Dern (-177) $138.50 to win $78.25
Loopy (-158, -150) $92.40 to win $60.00

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

Rebecki R1 or R2 (-135) $33.74 to win $25.00

How many main card fights end inside the distance?
Zero (+100000) $15.00 to win $15000.00
One (+4000) $8.00 to win $320.00
Two (+700) $10.00 to win $70.00
Click to expand...
Dern (-177) $138.50 to win $78.25
Loopy (-158, -150) $92.40 to win $60.00

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

Rebecki R1 or R2 (-135) $33.74 to win $25.00

How many main card fights end inside the distance?
Zero (+100000) $15.00 to win $15000.00
One (+4000) $8.00 to win $320.00
Two (+700) $10.00 to win $70.00

In reality I got slaughtered on live bets.
 
mkess101 said:
All my action on PrizePicks and Underdog.

PrizePicks:

Ingram (NHL-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes $25 to pay $75
Edwards (NBA-won)+Aspinall/Sergei under 5 minutes $25 to pay $75
Middleton (NBA-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Rebeki over 1.5 TD's+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $15 to pay $150
Protected play (no risk-site refunds if bet doesn't cash) Jurkic (NBA-won)+Rebecki over 1.5 TD's+Aspinall over 76.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $50 to pay $1250
Pereira over 87.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS $25 to pay $75 (Pereira over here is a hedge for my Underdog action on his under FS because the scoring between the two sites is so different that both can easily cash with an early Pereira stoppage)

Underdog:
Godinez over 63.5 sig strikes+Aspinall over 49.55 FS $17 to pay $51
Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $40 to pay $120
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $15 to pay $90
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola TD spread vs BSD of +2 (BSD would need to get 3+ more TD's than Frevola for this to lose, 2 more is a push) $27 to pay $81
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 63.5 sig strikes+Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola +2 TD spread+Borschev -3.5 sig strike spread vs Sadykhov $20 to pay $400
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Jacobs (NFL free square, over 0.5 yards) $10 to pay $30
Edwards (NBA-won)+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30
St. Brown (NFL) under 84.5 yards+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30

Obviously my most confident play is Pereira under 72.55 fantasy score on Underdog. For reference, a first round finish is worth 50 points. Sig strike landed is 0.5 points. Knockdown is 10 points. Takedown 5 points, submission attempt 4 points.

So a first round finish with a knockdown and 20 sig strikes landed for Pereira would still only score him 70 points and stay under.

GL all!
Click to expand...


PrizePicks:

Ingram (NHL-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes $25 to pay $75--Cash $75
Edwards (NBA-won)+Aspinall/Sergei under 5 minutes $25 to pay $75--Cash $75
Middleton (NBA-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Rebeki over 1.5 TD's+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $15 to pay $150--Loss
Protected play (no risk-site refunds if bet doesn't cash) Jurkic (NBA-won)+Rebecki over 1.5 TD's+Aspinall over 76.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $50 to pay $1250--Cash $100 (5 of 6 pays 2x)
Pereira over 87.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS $25 to pay $75 (Pereira over here is a hedge for my Underdog action on his under FS because the scoring between the two sites is so different that both can easily cash with an early Pereira stoppage)--Cash $75

Underdog:
Godinez over 63.5 sig strikes+Aspinall over 49.55 FS $17 to pay $51--Cash $51
Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $40 to pay $120--Loss
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $15 to pay $90--Loss
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola TD spread vs BSD of +2 (BSD would need to get 3+ more TD's than Frevola for this to lose, 2 more is a push) $27 to pay $81--Loss
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 63.5 sig strikes+Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola +2 TD spread+Borschev -3.5 sig strike spread vs Sadykhov $20 to pay $400--Loss
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Jacobs (NFL free square, over 0.5 yards) $10 to pay $30--Loss
Edwards (NBA-won)+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30--Loss
St. Brown (NFL) under 84.5 yards+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30--Loss

Also added a 5 team play $15 to pay $375 on UD and went 4-1 with Pereira under 72.55 being the only loss. He scored 73, and I swear it's rigged LOL. I'm tilting hard. They gave him credit for a knockdown when Jiri was already on his knees attempting a TD. They also gave him credit for a sub attempt which I didn't see a legit sub attempt from Alex at all.
 
Last edited:
mkess101 said:
PrizePicks:

Ingram (NHL-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes $25 to pay $75--Cash $75
Edwards (NBA-won)+Aspinall/Sergei under 5 minutes $25 to pay $75--Cash $75
Middleton (NBA-won)+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Rebeki over 1.5 TD's+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $15 to pay $150--Loss
Protected play (no risk-site refunds if bet doesn't cash) Jurkic (NBA-won)+Rebecki over 1.5 TD's+Aspinall over 76.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS+Loopy over 66.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 65.5 sig strikes $50 to pay $1250--Cash $100 (5 of 6 pays 2x)
Pereira over 87.5 FS+BSD over 98.5 FS $25 to pay $75 (Pereira over here is a hedge for my Underdog action on his under FS because the scoring between the two sites is so different that both can easily cash with an early Pereira stoppage)--Cash $75

Underdog:
Godinez over 63.5 sig strikes+Aspinall over 49.55 FS $17 to pay $51--Cash $51
Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $40 to pay $120--Loss
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Dern under 67.55 FS+Pereira under 72.55 FS $15 to pay $90--Loss
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola TD spread vs BSD of +2 (BSD would need to get 3+ more TD's than Frevola for this to lose, 2 more is a push) $27 to pay $81--Loss
Loopy over 63.5 sig strikes+Gordon over 63.5 sig strikes+Pereira under 72.55 FS+Frevola +2 TD spread+Borschev -3.5 sig strike spread vs Sadykhov $20 to pay $400--Loss
Pereira under 72.55 FS+Jacobs (NFL free square, over 0.5 yards) $10 to pay $30--Loss
Edwards (NBA-won)+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30--Loss
St. Brown (NFL) under 84.5 yards+Pereira under 72.55 FS $10 to pay $30--Loss

Also added a 5 team play $15 to pay $375 on UD and went 4-1 with Pereira under 72.55 being the only loss. He scored 73, and I swear it's rigged LOL. I'm tilting hard. They gave him credit for a knockdown when Jiri was already on his knees attempting a TD. They also gave him credit for a sub attempt which I didn't see a legit sub attempt from Alex at all.
Click to expand...
Guessing the sub attempt is the headlock he had on Jiri for a bit.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Guessing the sub attempt is the headlock he had on Jiri for a bit.
Click to expand...
Weak. I've seen deeper sub attempts not counted. And the "knockdown" was bullshit too. Jiri shot and was on his knees already.

Bad luck, but it honestly feels rigged to lose a great line by half a point that way.
 
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