UFC on ESPN+ 33 Smith vs Teixeira Official Bets

Taped 3.5 fights thanks to the quick turnaround. Looked at enough of Morales-Benitez to decide that Benitez is a bad play and Morales is probably value at -155, but not enough to pull the trigger. Might throw a tiny amount on Eubanks ML just for fun, but in the meantime,

3u on OSP at -127 (might hate myself for not going heavier)
1.9u on Lins at -190 (awful price and I would have risked much more at -140 let alone +100)

So confident on OSP? I like his chances to win a decision so I'm on that for sure at +3xx but how the hell does OSP get Ben out of there? (Okay that's hyperbole of course he COULD) but Ben--for all his MANY flaws--is about as durable as anyone and OSP isn't a true HW. OSP getting Ben on his back to use his chokes seems far fetched too.
 
Only have funds on my betstars account right now, so got some pretty weak lines i think.

Pre-bets:

1u on Chase Sherman + Hunter Azure at 2.35

Thats it :).

Ready to livebet though. Gl all!
 
So confident on OSP? I like his chances to win a decision so I'm on that for sure at +3xx but how the hell does OSP get Ben out of there? (Okay that's hyperbole of course he COULD) but Ben--for all his MANY flaws--is about as durable as anyone and OSP isn't a true HW. OSP getting Ben on his back to use his chokes seems far fetched too.

Ben Rothwell's chin is not what it once was. The Arlovski rematch showed us as much. Nevermind that there is a possibility of stoppage from kicks to the legs or body. Or possibly even OSP by sub.

I don't hate your NSC play, for the record, but OSP has some chances of a finish.

Also, I don't know what a "true HW" means in this context, considering OSP has average or above-average height, reach, weight, and muscle mass for the weight class, but OSP having fought at light-heavyweight for a long time is...to his advantage.
 
Added one more bet, that's it.

Azure -3.5 at +185 for $20
 
Ben Rothwell's chin is not what it once was. The Arlovski rematch showed us as much. Nevermind that there is a possibility of stoppage from kicks to the legs or body. Or possibly even OSP by sub.

I don't hate your NSC play, for the record, but OSP has some chances of a finish.

Also, I don't know what a "true HW" ,means in this context, considering OSP has average or above-average height, reach, weight, and muscle mass for the weight class, but OSP having fought at light-heavyweight for a long time is...to his advantage.

I guess I mean that he's just smaller than Rothwell. Ben is a guy who's right at the HW limit, just bigger. OSP is a guy capable of making 205 (obviously). He's a very big guy for LHW, but he's much smaller at HW. Generally, that means the power won't translate against a much bigger guy.

Ben survived Arlovski landing really good shots, I gotta imagine AA (even at his age) has at least as much (probably more) power than OSP.

The body kicks is a good point though, OSP has nasty ones and a good chin doesn't help that.
 
My bets thus far:

- 1u on Kelleher ML +150
- 1u on Rothwell ML +120
- 1u on Borg decision +247
- 2u on Borg no scorecards +157
- 1u on Smith submission +2550
- 2u on Arlovski/Lins starts Round 3 -114
- 1u on Arlovski/Lins starts Round 3 -110
- .5u on Vettori submission +555

There's a ML that I want to bet a few units on, but I am waiting for the odds to improve.
I got the line I was waiting for.

3u on Dober ML -110.
 
I guess I mean that he's just smaller than Rothwell. Ben is a guy who's right at the HW limit, just bigger. OSP is a guy capable of making 205 (obviously). He's a very big guy for LHW, but he's much smaller at HW. Generally, that means the power won't translate against a much bigger guy.

Ben survived Arlovski landing really good shots, I gotta imagine AA (even at his age) has at least as much (probably more) power than OSP.

The body kicks is a good point though, OSP has nasty ones and a good chin doesn't help that.

A man weighing 240 solid pounds can knock out anyone of any size, especially the 265+ pounds of donkey shit that Rothwell is carrying.

Furthermore, with a few freakish exceptions (N'Gannou), I think after about 245 pounds or so, any additional weight is more of a disadvantage than an advantage, anyways.

Arlovski was able to unload more than unusual these days in the rematch because of how painfully, painfully slow and defenseless Rothwell is, but he still pulled his punches and didn't land any big power punches flush. Rothwell was still badly hurt when a few years ago, he would have shrugged and kept walking forward.
 
Any locks this card in your opinion? Most fights seem pretty even
 
A man weighing 240 solid pounds can knock out anyone of any size, especially the 265+ pounds of donkey shit that Rothwell is carrying.

Furthermore, with a few freakish exceptions (N'Gannou), I think after about 245 pounds or so, any additional weight is more of a disadvantage than an advantage, anyways.

Arlovski was able to unload more than unusual these days in the rematch because of how painfully, painfully slow and defenseless Rothwell is, but he still pulled his punches and didn't land any big power punches flush. Rothwell was still badly hurt when a few years ago, he would have shrugged and kept walking forward.

Maybe. If OSP blasts Ben I'll eat my words haha.
 
Big Man Glover cashes 25 cent lotto parlay.png

If only all +35000 parlays hit this easily lol...

Too bad I only bet 25 cents lol oh well a win is a win
 
My friend said I am too dumb to work at a real job, clicking mouse is so easy a monkey could do it.



strong finish, nice $1100 cdn
 
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Taped 3.5 fights thanks to the quick turnaround. Looked at enough of Morales-Benitez to decide that Benitez is a bad play and Morales is probably value at -155, but not enough to pull the trigger. Might throw a tiny amount on Eubanks ML just for fun, but in the meantime,

3u on OSP at -127 (might hate myself for not going heavier)
1.9u on Lins at -190 (awful price and I would have risked much more at -140 let alone +100)

Added 0.9u on Eubanks at -295 for my sole win. Ended -4.6u for the night, donating back everything I won last weekend and pitching in an extra 0.7u on top.

Despite this, I don't hate either of my two bets. I thought Lins clearly won, even with him inexplicably taking round 2 off after easily winning the first stanza. Apparently though, the fix was in.

The OSP fight went as horrendously as it possibly could, with OSP looking like a slow, uncoordinated mess compared to what he even showed against Michal Olek in his last fight, and he STILL badly hurt Rothwell multiple times and almost won the split. Considering I played him at -127, almost winning in a disaster scenario isn't too bad.

I had Rothwell correctly pegged as utter donkeyshit. Unfortunately, OSP was almost as bad.

While I've had far more losing nights than this one, few were as frustrating as those two decisions.

Oh well, on to the next card in just 3 days.
 
My bets thus far:

- 1u on Kelleher ML +150
- 1u on Rothwell ML +120
- 1u on Borg decision +247
- 2u on Borg no scorecards +157
- 1u on Smith submission +2550
- 2u on Arlovski/Lins starts Round 3 -114
- 1u on Arlovski/Lins starts Round 3 -110
- .5u on Vettori submission +555

There's a ML that I want to bet a few units on, but I am waiting for the odds to improve.

I got the line I was waiting for.

3u on Dober ML -110.
LTBCTel.jpg


My best night in a long time. I got lucky with the parlay (I wish Borg would've won ITD...).
 
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