UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

Sono07 said:
Think I missed the fight but Townsend losing a decision and fighting only 3 weeks later seems like a red flag.
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Lost a fairly uneventful decision though, I don't think there will have been much wear and tear. He has power on his hands, Clark slows, Townsend might have a little fire in him coming off a loss. Not saying I would bet it like
 
Paiva had a nasty cut stoppage just 4 months ago. Worried about putting him an any parlay.
 
No indication that Jan has materially improved his TDD since the first fight imo. Should be a rerun
 
Gugabe said:
No indication that Jan has materially improved his TDD since the first fight imo. Should be a rerun
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There's also a speed gap so I'm not even concerned on the feet tbh. Jan's "legendary polish power" is overblown after ko'ing Luke. Corey is only fighter that I played instantly havn't taken a look at the rest much yet.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
There's also a speed gap so I'm not even concerned on the feet tbh. Jan's "legendary polish power" is overblown after ko'ing Luke. Corey is only fighter that I played instantly havn't taken a look at the rest much yet.
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Yeah. I like Jan but I struggle to see how he takes this at any significant clip considering the wrestling and cardio edges inherent and that he isn't a massive hitter. KO is possible but I wouldn't trust Jan moment to moment power.

Dodson price is surprising considering Wood is ultra hittable, probably won't be able to wrestle him and taking a gigantic step up
 
Both Jan and Corey have obviously improved since their first fight, but I think Corey just has the more complete game. Obviously he has the wrestling advantage but I also think his striking has looked excellent for the weight class, he's light on his feet and quick, moves in and out well and even holds some power to.

I'd give Jan the shot for shot power advantage and he's the bigger more powerful man over all, but he's also more likely to slow.

We've just seen Jan held against the cage for five rounds against a middle weight, no reason Corey can't so something similar if he decides he just wants to scrape out the win and not look to put on any kind of performance.

With that, I probably wouldn't bet the fight, the line is too wide. Corey is at 1.45, I'd want him closer to 1.75/1.80.

Jan at 2.80 has some value, but I don't favour him to win the fight. If Jan moves to 3.00 or more, and it may happen as Corey clearly will be favoured, I'd take a stab.

Not to say Jan is some one punch killer nowadays, but he does hold power and Corey's chin has been tested and failed on a few occasions. Saying that Corey said on JRE, I think it was before the Walker fight, that he now comes into camp heavier, holds more weight out of camp generally, allowing him to train harder and push for longer and recover better where as previously he was constantly keeping his weight low so he could have an easier cut when the time came, but it was detrimental to his training over all.

Corey's striking is over looked, it's very good.
 
GTD at evens for the main event is kinda tempting. Don't see either finishing it at a significant clip
 
Gugabe said:
GTD at evens for the main event is kinda tempting. Don't see either finishing it at a significant clip
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Good call, that or the over, both guys are fairly decision happy and we probably get a pretty 'safe' performance from both guys as winner is likely next for the title.
 
Rio Rancho, New Mexico same elevation as Denver.... fade bad gas tanks.
 
Sono07 said:
Think I missed the fight but Townsend losing a decision and fighting only 3 weeks later seems like a red flag.
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If i recall Townsend also has the Chin issue as well. I would problary take on Clark. Clark has being doing ok in his few last matches.
 
Can any of you boys recall Borellos take down D being tested? I recall Murphy not being able to take he down but that's not saying much. De La Rosa has solid wrestling for a girl but I just need to see some examples of Borrelas D.
 
OneWarrior1 said:
Doesn't Corey have terrible chin issues?
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Terrible is a stretch but I would say Jan definitely has the power to KO him but it's LHW so anyone has the power to KO anyone else really. Corey has the faster hands and there's no reason he couldn't also KO Jan.

Probably more of a pass fight in my opinion just because both guys have changed since their last fight, but if I do decide to bet it I'd be taking Corey.
 
The only question in the Sanchez/Pereira fight is can Diego's chin hold out for first first round, I have to think it's unlikely.

Pereira is a huge welter weight, he has big power, he's very quick and can explode into all kinds of acrobatic strikes. It's a very energy taxing style but it's also very dangerous for his opponents in the early going. The opening two and a half minutes are a barrage of power shots from kicks, knees and punches, one connection has the power to put you out.

Looking at Sanchez, he has not improved his striking over time There was a point where he was thought to be somewhat dangerous on the feet but to watch his boxing now it's clear those days are long gone. He wings all of his punches, no straight shots, no jab, no diversity of strikes. He has hooks and a few kicks to the body and legs and little else, a basic brawler. On top of this there is little pop or power on his strikes. Obviously he has the potential to hurt someone with his striking but generally he doesn't find success with it until late in fights against exhausted opponents, usually of a low level themselves. Al Iaquinta showed where Sanchez' striking sits, if you have a decent level of boxing even simple shots will be enough to get the job done, it's just a case of landing clean, which isn't difficult as Sanchez' striking defence is at a similar level to his offense.

Physically Pereira has all of the advantages, he's taller, longer, much bigger (Diego has fought as low as 145lbs, Pereira could easily fight at 185lbs), much faster and has the durability edge. The key area Diego clearly has a big advantage is in cardio, Pereira has 2 to 3 minutes at his full clip, and then he will begin to slow. Once he slows the power and speed drop significantly and the threats of any explosive actions disappear, and he's left throwing single strikes and being vulnerable to grappling and wrestling exchanges. Pereira has shown some defensive ability in these areas fighting off submission attempts and reversing the clinch, but if a tired Pereira finds himself on bottom in the second round he will get almost certainly get cooked and mauled by Sanchez for the remainder of the fight.

I can see an argument for the Tristen Connelly path to victory for Sanchez, but I believe Tristen offered a few attributes along with his grappling that Sanchez doesn't possess, the key one being able to weather the storm and absorb damage early.

Sanchez could attack the takedown early, he did against White, Brown and Gall. Literally ran across the cage and looked to clinch or get to their hips right away. High risk but high reward to try something like this against Pereira. If Diego has success then he could tire Pereira early and basically nullify the power before it gets chance to be shown, but at the same time it could lead to Diego getting crushed with a huge knee or just thrown off and left in striking range in the middle of the cage.

Diego can't let Pereira have the centre of the Octagon, he has to keep him against the cage and on the back foot always. If Pereira is given room he will use it to explode and most likely end the fight.

Old school striker vs grappler style match up in a sense. I see it as a sprinter vs a marathon runner, only the sprinter is twice the size of the marathon runner and the marathon runner could be KO'ed by running through the finish line ribbon.

There is a possibility of seeing almost a replay of the Connerly fight, but that relies massively on Sanchez absorbing damage early and Pereira making mistakes. I don't believe he can take the damage, even in the fights he has won lately against Gall and White he had moments of being badly hurt and I believe momentarily knocked out. Pereira is seen as a clown, and he is, but he's a huge, powerful very fast clown.

The line opened near a pick'em, and there was a lot of value in Pereira at this price. I got him at 1.80 for a unit, he has since dropped to 1.60 and I imagine he will close around 1.35/1.40. If you have faith in Diego's chin wait until closer to fight night, I only see his price improving.

Pereira by KO/TKO round one is my prediction.
 
2020Tracked said:
The only question in the Sanchez/Pereira fight is can Diego's chin hold out for first first round, I have to think it's unlikely.

Pereira is a huge welter weight, he has big power, he's very quick and can explode into all kinds of acrobatic strikes. It's a very energy taxing style but it's also very dangerous for his opponents in the early going. The opening two and a half minutes are a barrage of power shots from kicks, knees and punches, one connection has the power to put you out.

Looking at Sanchez, he has not improved his striking over time There was a point where he was thought to be somewhat dangerous on the feet but to watch his boxing now it's clear those days are long gone. He wings all of his punches, no straight shots, no jab, no diversity of strikes. He has hooks and a few kicks to the body and legs and little else, a basic brawler. On top of this there is little pop or power on his strikes. Obviously he has the potential to hurt someone with his striking but generally he doesn't find success with it until late in fights against exhausted opponents, usually of a low level themselves. Al Iaquinta showed where Sanchez' striking sits, if you have a decent level of boxing even simple shots will be enough to get the job done, it's just a case of landing clean, which isn't difficult as Sanchez' striking defence is at a similar level to his offense.

Physically Pereira has all of the advantages, he's taller, longer, much bigger (Diego has fought as low as 145lbs, Pereira could easily fight at 185lbs), much faster and has the durability edge. The key area Diego clearly has a big advantage is in cardio, Pereira has 2 to 3 minutes at his full clip, and then he will begin to slow. Once he slows the power and speed drop significantly and the threats of any explosive actions disappear, and he's left throwing single strikes and being vulnerable to grappling and wrestling exchanges. Pereira has shown some defensive ability in these areas fighting off submission attempts and reversing the clinch, but if a tired Pereira finds himself on bottom in the second round he will get almost certainly get cooked and mauled by Sanchez for the remainder of the fight.

I can see an argument for the Tristen Connelly path to victory for Sanchez, but I believe Tristen offered a few attributes along with his grappling that Sanchez doesn't possess, the key one being able to weather the storm and absorb damage early.

Sanchez could attack the takedown early, he did against White, Brown and Gall. Literally ran across the cage and looked to clinch or get to their hips right away. High risk but high reward to try something like this against Pereira. If Diego has success then he could tire Pereira early and basically nullify the power before it gets chance to be shown, but at the same time it could lead to Diego getting crushed with a huge knee or just thrown off and left in striking range in the middle of the cage.

Diego can't let Pereira have the centre of the Octagon, he has to keep him against the cage and on the back foot always. If Pereira is given room he will use it to explode and most likely end the fight.

Old school striker vs grappler style match up in a sense. I see it as a sprinter vs a marathon runner, only the sprinter is twice the size of the marathon runner and the marathon runner could be KO'ed by running through the finish line ribbon.

There is a possibility of seeing almost a replay of the Connerly fight, but that relies massively on Sanchez absorbing damage early and Pereira making mistakes. I don't believe he can take the damage, even in the fights he has won lately against Gall and White he had moments of being badly hurt and I believe momentarily knocked out. Pereira is seen as a clown, and he is, but he's a huge, powerful very fast clown.

The line opened near a pick'em, and there was a lot of value in Pereira at this price. I got him at 1.80 for a unit, he has since dropped to 1.60 and I imagine he will close around 1.35/1.40. If you have faith in Diego's chin wait until closer to fight night, I only see his price improving.

Pereira by KO/TKO round one is my prediction.
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My concern with Pereira is that if Diego gets him down, then I think he'll spend the rest of the round on the bottom.
 
Some really cool grappling matchups on this card: Borg/Bontorin and Merab/Kenney. Leaning towards the dogs on both.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
My concern with Pereira is that if Diego gets him down, then I think he'll spend the rest of the round on the bottom.
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It's Diego's only path, and it's definitely possible, but barring a big mistake early from Pereira that results in him ending up on the ground I can't see how Sanchez gets it there. A full energy Pereira is going to be very strong and will most likely shrug Diego's efforts off. It all changes after the first round, from round 2 onwards I would favour Sanchez
 
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