UFC On ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

[theTKDguy]

Whoa...Maurice green by sub is +1450 on dimes. He has 2x more subs then KOs and fatboy villante hardly looks like a cardio machine on the scale today..hammered it into a few parlays. Villantes never been subbed but I expect him to be huffing and puffing by round 2

Threw some penies on that as well

 

[jungleln]

Down to +950 in an hour....this may have been the first time I moved a line haha

They took that bet off of betonline.ag. Everything else is in play except that one.

 

[Bork Lazer]

USADA approved isn't he ?

That's Pride circa early 2000's level of approved.

 

[Bork Lazer]

I might be late to the train but Gian Villante....HOLY FUCK. Dude's cardio was trash when he was at 205lbs now he looks like he ate his 205lbs version. I mean I am sure he has a puncher's chance and Greene isn't anything special but jesus christ I don't see how he wins this fight if it goes longer than 2-3 minutes.

Typically when a LHW jumps to HW, they just stop cutting weight and weigh in at like 230 but man Gian must have went to his native Italy and stopped at every restaurant in sight.

to

Going to be using Greene as juicy parlay material and maybe put a bit on him inside the distance.

 

[Card]

 

[Bork Lazer]

Also Tanner Boser looked in the best shape I have ever seen him (dating back to his days in ACA/ACB). I know weigh ins can be deceiving sometimes but I feel like he was a tough match up for Lins already but seeing him at the weigh ins gives me even more confidence in him:

Against Gane back in December:

and today:

 

[carolinagrapple]

After seeing villante I can finally say I'm a ripped as a UFC fighter

 

[Card]

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I’ll state the obvious on the main event

idk who the rest of the card is except bet against fat Villante and take a stab in
Gall sub prop +500

I see porier winning this with his boxing and pressure

dan doesn’t have much of a right hand and I feel his calf kicks will be useless against a southpaw

Porier has more power and output plain and simple

he either cruises to a decision or finishes in the 4th

small cage def helps porier

 

[mkess101]

Galls guard is nothing special. Brown, Salim, and IIRC Northcutt all had success from top. Perry is the better wrestler and I'm not worried about him following Gall to the mat. Sickness vs Sanchez aside, Gall still gassed pretty bad vs one of the lowest paced fighters in Salim. Backtake or bust imo.

His guard is really good when he's fresh but yeah cardio is a concern for sure.

 

[jrleclerc88]

For me I’m comfortable with Poirier up to where he is now. I just think it’s a big step up for hooker and if you look at his output in previous fights it tends to decrease as the fight goes. Dustin is a great technical mma boxer and has a solid ground game. I think the 25 foot cage sets up better for porier also bc it gives hooker less room to move around and pick his spots. I see Dustin pushing the pace and either outlasting hooker or finishing him in the later rounds. Another thing to look at is while hooker has landed a high volume of strikes in his fights he also gets hit just as much. I believe the differential of strikes landed to strikes absorbed is about even. Poirier throws and lands more than anyone hooker has faced.

After rewatching some of poirier fights he seems to be really confident with his boxing defense, he almost looks cocky before exchanges. Hooker has a reach advantage so if Poirier tries to use some of his fancy defense he might get tagged up-

This isnt the best example but go to .35 in and imagine hooker with his reach advantage. IMO poirier uses this type of defense often

 

[Jordan3399]

After rewatching some of poirier fights he seems to be really confident with his boxing defense, he almost looks cocky before exchanges. Hooker has a reach advantage so if Poirier tries to use some of his fancy defense he might get tagged up-

This isnt the best example but go to .35 in and imagine hooker with his reach advantage. IMO poirier uses this type of defense often

I don't mind Dustins guard in boxing exchanges but the way his right hand flies out when he throws his left hand is asking to get caught with a left hook counter. I think the guard struggles vs kicks too, Dustin backs up without a ton of lateral movement using that and leaves his body and legs open.

 

[ctm]

I bartend with a guy in Edmonton Alberta who is close friends with Tanner Boser, I’ve met Boser twice myself and seen him fight once, nice dude.

Anyways my coworker and Tanner speak all the time so I’ve used this opportunity to get him to plant the seed that he should go for a round 3 finish on Saturday.

I’ve been pretty cold for the past year, some good reads here and there but it’s been ugly so new strategy.

 

[TrueAscension]

Sup fellas. Knee deep in the rona so sitting this card out but have a parlay that ends with Poirier. Best of luck to you all and hope I’m still around for 251!

 

[Gugabe]

This Jason Witt looks average at best. Cant really tell what he is good at, and level of competition of shocking. Odds will probably be juiced as

Yeah. Witt's not bad, but he's also so strikingly average. He's just a generic wrestleboxer man.

 

[tdmma09]

3U Tanner Bosser +100, dudes got some balls taking the Ciryl Gane fight even though he lost all rounds it still was impressive as he was just being expected to be knocked out. Lins couldn't even wobble Arlovski when he hit him clean, think Lins could be a little bit of a Usada victim his body looks different from the regional.

2U Perry KO R1 +300 and 1U KO R2 +450. Massive step up for Mickey Gall who turned his back and ran away from Randy Browns punches. Perry even with a sub par training camp and no corner is enough to knock Gall out, game plan is pretty obvious dont get taken down, there is no threat from Mickey on the feet. Perry is a purple belt I believe so its not like hes only a striker and has stuffed take downs from better fighters. Salim stuffed all Galls take downs pretty easy. And his new GF is probably a good thing, he doesnt have to deal with extra drama in his personal life. I hope pretty Perry joins and sticks too a solid gym and bring some stability back to his life the dude is a natural fighter and entertaining. One thing also I think is Mickey Gall might adrenaline dump when he sees mad man Perry across the octagon because he has to know that Perry at any point could put his lights out and I would go as far to say Perry has better cardio.

Want to bet Poirier but line is too wide. Never been high on Dan Hooker, he is a good fighter but overated IMO. I think Gilbert Burns got knocked out by the weight cut if anything. He keeps his hands so low and Poirier is the best boxer he will have faced and best fighter period. Think Poirier find the chin and knocks him out in the 3rd when the damage starts piling up. If Poirier tries to take him down he has the watch the guillotine of Hookers which is quite good.

 

[Willy Knuckles]

Also Tanner Boser looked in the best shape I have ever seen him (dating back to his days in ACA/ACB). I know weigh ins can be deceiving sometimes but I feel like he was a tough match up for Lins already but seeing him at the weigh ins gives me even more confidence in him:

Against Gane back in December:

and today:

Yeah I noticed that too

 

[matthew55]

Sup fellas. Knee deep in the rona so sitting this card out but have a parlay that ends with Poirier. Best of luck to you all and hope I’m still around for 251!

get better bro..shoot Kyle Marley's picks if you're not busy,,most of my picks are locked in but I'm still curious

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I hope Hooker gets it done via ko in round 1 or 2

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Wanted to like Zalal, but watching tape I can see Griffin KO at 10.0 being value

Griffin is an idiot and has a speed disadvantage, but he also has the power edge (knockdown v Maurice Mitchell on DWTS) and Zalal is SUPER hittable. Griffin also appears to have better wrestling, and because of Zalal's solid sub game I'm wondering if maybe Griffin just says fuck it and unloads

Zalal is also kind of weak in his hands and relies on kicks and Cruz-isms a ton, which is cool but like... Small cage. And we know Griffin is cool with pressuring so that shouldn't be too much of an issue

I am liking Zalal as a small underdog here. Seeing how two fights had being canceled the search for underdogs value for today's fight card has being a bit tricky. Unless of course Sato makes a not a good move at the small cage.