UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

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RA is a much more technical striker than Sterling no doubt. But sterling has a style that might be tricky for RA to naturally counter: he's a bigger faster guy throwing kicks from outside RA's range.

Watched RA TJ 2 with fresh eyes, and RAs tdd looked great. That's bad news for sterling even though he commits to tds more.
 
Fuckkk I love some of these prices, but not confident enough yet to hit anything but Marquardt dec +450. Hit that for 1u, would've done more but i'm limited

Also like Shev dec, Mas dec, and Caceres dec all in the +200s
 
Not alvey ITD @-150 is pretty solid imo. Marquardt physical state is a concern, but I don't think Alvey will be able to capitalize on it, he doesn't have the speed that guys have who have finished Marquardt in the past few years.
 
Jodan Johnson

vs Shaun Asher



highlights vs Trevor Giles



interview from a couple of months back.



Trains with quite a lot of high level guys. Vitor brought him in for 3 camps, helped Davis out with Glover and McGeary, cornered Gus vs Rumble judging from his Instagram. Trained a bit at Power MMA and MMA Lab. Now trains at Victory MMA in San Diego and does some sparring at Alliance too.
 
crapppp, i missed the openers on these but

caceres dec +260
marq dec +400

did to win 1u on both (marq dec opened +525, grr)

saddened by a couple other prices/options, waiting on them
 
AffectEffect said:
RA is a much more technical striker than Sterling no doubt. But sterling has a style that might be tricky for RA to naturally counter: he's a bigger faster guy throwing kicks from outside RA's range.

Watched RA TJ 2 with fresh eyes, and RAs tdd looked great. That's bad news for sterling even though he commits to tds more.
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Yeah i agree. Sterling has barely taken a punch to date. As ineffective as his kicks are as a ko threat they really do keep people at range. However, we have seen some of his kicks countered with a strong right hand when people have been willing to step through the kick rather than back off. RA also has very good kicks which he can utilise if he is struggling to find the range with his hands. I would also not underestimate RA's ability to put Sterling on his back. He has an explosive shot and both gibson and caraway were able to ground sterling. Altitude too and while RA has always shown great conditioning Sterling has not.

I think this will be a kickboxing bout mostly. RA has excellent tdd and when taken down both caraway and tj were only able to keep him down for seconds he scrambles superbly. In a kickboxing battle i have to go with RA and i think he can mix in td's too. I need RA's line to drop tho if i can get -120 id be prepared to unload.
 
vkram said:
Jodan Johnson

vs Shaun Asher



highlights vs Trevor Giles



interview from a couple of months back.



Trains with quite a lot of high level guys. Vitor brought him in for 3 camps, helped Davis out with Glover and McGeary, cornered Gus vs Rumble judging from his Instagram. Trained a bit at Power MMA and MMA Lab. Now trains at Victory MMA in San Diego and does some sparring at Alliance too.
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The guy that I bought my truck off of knows him well. He's gone on a few trips with him hunting and riding motorcycles. This seems like a favorable match for him as his main strength is grappling.
 
Prior to the scoring changes I would've sided with Pena, but now I strongly favour Shev. We should be able to take advantage of these changes within the first few months of 2017 before the bookies catch on. It seems Pena's route to victory is to wrestlefuck which is no longer a viable way to win rounds unless you spend the whole round in control. Even then it would appear that a sub attempt from bottom is worth more than top control... 2.5 units at -105 for me, may add another 2.5 after tape review.
 
Sadistics said:
Prior to the scoring changes I would've sided with Pena, but now I strongly favour Shev. We should be able to take advantage of these changes within the first few months of 2017 before the bookies catch on. It seems Pena's route to victory is to wrestlefuck which is no longer a viable way to win rounds unless you spend the whole round in control. Even then it would appear that a sub attempt from bottom is worth more than top control... 2.5 units at -105 for me, may add another 2.5 after tape review.
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Pena is pretty active on the ground though and Shevchenko really struggled to get up from the bottom vs Kaufman and Nunes.
 
Sadistics said:
Prior to the scoring changes I would've sided with Pena, but now I strongly favour Shev. We should be able to take advantage of these changes within the first few months of 2017 before the bookies catch on. It seems Pena's route to victory is to wrestlefuck which is no longer a viable way to win rounds unless you spend the whole round in control. Even then it would appear that a sub attempt from bottom is worth more than top control... 2.5 units at -105 for me, may add another 2.5 after tape review.
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I am having a hard time picking a side in this fight. HH could have easily won by simply being more physical. HH was stronger in the clinch but for whatever reason always elected to box. HH should have won the boxing match too but somehow the smaller Shev did an amazing job of counter punching...the WHOLE damn fight.

The biggest red flag for me on Pena is that she said she doesn't care about elevation and isn't going to change anything because of it....WTF how does someone say this in 2017 MMA (maybe just hyperbole?!)

I think Pena needs to get a TD and just smash her. OTOH Shev has so many ways to win but primarily stick and move for 5 rounds. Leaning Shev but scared about it.
 
Watched a bit of tape on alex and knight, style wise it does favour knight. Knight has that forward aggression but that is not to say alex can't counter him as he comes in but knight has been using his wrestling more lately and having good take downs, he is going to need to them to here. Close fight reckon both the overs hit also, prefer the prop play but if I had to pick knight decision.

Tough fight for Andrei here but he does have some sneaky uppercuts and can catch hw's with his footwork, francis however has never been finished, is also 30 and in his prime where as andrei is 37 and already had 9 ko losses. The altitude could be a factor here especially if it gets out to r2. Am liking the under plays or fight does not go distance for francis or maybe francis as parlay fodder.

Watching cowboy vs brown again.....cowboy did not actually do so bad as I first felt, cowboy had take downs, some nice counter jabs and good footwork defensively, he did slow down in r2 but was still landing flush head kicks giving brown problems till the r3 high head kick ko, not sure what brown did he kinda left his head lingering undefended for 2-3 seconds more on the right perfect for cowboys left headkick? Either way do think masvidal has a great style and has made nice adjustments to his style, his jab and body kicks could keep cowboy on the back foot and he has a good pressure style which cowboy does not like, am on the masvidal train but will be live betting this fight mainly.

Feeling a prop or overs heavy card already :)
 
Sadistics said:
Prior to the scoring changes I would've sided with Pena, but now I strongly favour Shev. We should be able to take advantage of these changes within the first few months of 2017 before the bookies catch on. It seems Pena's route to victory is to wrestlefuck which is no longer a viable way to win rounds unless you spend the whole round in control. Even then it would appear that a sub attempt from bottom is worth more than top control... 2.5 units at -105 for me, may add another 2.5 after tape review.
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Is this really the way forward with the new ufc for 2017 ?

Scary stuff if true, anyone got a discussion or new ufc judge guide lines ?

I need to research that more then the entire card!
 
Sadistics said:
Prior to the scoring changes I would've sided with Pena, but now I strongly favour Shev. We should be able to take advantage of these changes within the first few months of 2017 before the bookies catch on. It seems Pena's route to victory is to wrestlefuck which is no longer a viable way to win rounds unless you spend the whole round in control. Even then it would appear that a sub attempt from bottom is worth more than top control... 2.5 units at -105 for me, may add another 2.5 after tape review.
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My understanding is that the new scoring will favour agressive fighters like pena that constantly looking for dominant positions and hunting for subs, its fighters that just lays in guard or walls and stalls that wont benefit from the new rules
 
rille31 said:
My understanding is that the new scoring will favour agressive fighters like pena that constantly looking for dominant positions and hunting for subs, its fighters that just lays in guard or walls and stalls that wont benefit from the new rules
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My understanding is that the new system favours damage or potential fight ending situations (like sub attempts). Simply having top position or pushing someone against the cage will count for less.

In addition there will be more 10-8 rounds.
 
So according to these new rules people like spicely & pena could look better in the judges eyes ?
 
I think the new rules favor pena. She really keeps the fight in close and pretty good on knowing she can not out strike people, especially someone like Shev. Pena is pretty active from the top and i do not think she will have to worry as much about sweeps and subs from Shev and can get more gnp going. They both seem to have good cardio, so I just think Pena will be able to get shev down early and often and keep her there, obviously if it stays standing then shev will piece pena up, but I dont see that happening. I am actually pretty big on pena.
 
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