UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[TimCoreCombat]

My understanding is that the new scoring will favour agressive fighters like pena that constantly looking for dominant positions and hunting for subs, its fighters that just lays in guard or walls and stalls that wont benefit from the new rules

Cause Shev isn't aggressive...lol

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I think the new rules favor pena. She really keeps the fight in close and pretty good on knowing she can not out strike people, especially someone like Shev. Pena is pretty active from the top and i do not think she will have to worry as much about sweeps and subs from Shev and can get more gnp going. They both seem to have good cardio, so I just think Pena will be able to get shev down early and often and keep her there, obviously if it stays standing then shev will piece pena up, but I dont see that happening. I am actually pretty big on pena.

Did you watch Shev's last fight? She is super aggressive.

 

[chanp6]

Not alvey ITD @-150 is pretty solid imo. Marquardt physical state is a concern, but I don't think Alvey will be able to capitalize on it, he doesn't have the speed that guys have who have finished Marquardt in the past few years.

don't see it .. marquardts chin is shot .. doesnt take much to wobble him .. but i do still like Nate

only way i se Alvey winning is by landing a big punch as his wrestling is inferior too

 

[LEMONZEST]

That was my big two team parlay for 5 units.

Pretty risky as both fights are close bol

 

[HeDucking]

Pretty risky as both fights are close bol

Shevchenko is gonna make Pena look like an amateur after a round or two. Pena is trash standing up, the Conor quote about "being stiff as a board" comes to mind. Shev is miles ahead on the standup. Pena better hope she can submit Shev early, which I doubt.

 

[Stunna77]

So Masvidal finishes a shot Berger by injury (probably on his way to a legit TKO, but still) and all of the sudden it seems like most itt think it's more likely he finishes Cowboy than Cowboy finishes him? I know he has a heck of a chin, but Cerrone has shown crazy power at 170 and has slick submissions. I definitely think Cerrone has more ways to win and has only been beaten by RDA and Pettis in the last 5 years and I am not ready to put Masvidal in with that company. Hoping for -150 and i'll probably be on Cowboy for 2u.

 

[Stunna77]

Also, Cerrone is going to be close to his hometown so he should be very motivated. Not like it takes much to get Cerrone up for a fight, but has to count for something..

 

[wack3d]

Shevchenko is gonna make Pena look like an amateur after a round or two. Pena is trash standing up, the Conor quote about "being stiff as a board" comes to mind. Shev is miles ahead on the standup. Pena better hope she can submit Shev early, which I doubt.

pena's cardio looked amazing in r3 vs eye and zingano.. why do you think she needs to win the fight early?

 

[wack3d]

So Masvidal finishes a shot Berger by injury (probably on his way to a legit TKO, but still) and all of the sudden it seems like most itt think it's more likely he finishes Cowboy than Cowboy finishes him? I know he has a heck of a chin, but Cerrone has shown crazy power at 170 and has slick submissions. I definitely think Cerrone has more ways to win and has only been beaten by RDA and Pettis in the last 5 years and I am not ready to put Masvidal in with that company. Hoping for -150 and i'll probably be on Cowboy for 2u.

its all about styles imo Mas has the style to make cowboy look bad

 

[iGnP]

So Masvidal finishes a shot Berger by injury (probably on his way to a legit TKO, but still) and all of the sudden it seems like most itt think it's more likely he finishes Cowboy than Cowboy finishes him? I know he has a heck of a chin, but Cerrone has shown crazy power at 170 and has slick submissions. I definitely think Cerrone has more ways to win and has only been beaten by RDA and Pettis in the last 5 years and I am not ready to put Masvidal in with that company. Hoping for -150 and i'll probably be on Cowboy for 2u.

its all about styles imo Mas has the style to make cowboy look bad

I cant see Mas finishing Cowboy. My mind will be blown if he does. I got 2u in on Cowboy already at -125ish IIRC but I'm gonna hedge a bit of it with Mas dec just because its a good line

 

[wack3d]

So according to these new rules people like spicely & pena could look better in the judges eyes ?

ya should benifit any fighters hwo looks for finishes and are agressive pretty much..guys like Oliveira and Brooks are fucked unless they adjust their styles

 

[wack3d]

I cant see Mas finishing Cowboy. My mind will be blown if he does. I got 2u in on Cowboy already at -125ish IIRC but I'm gonna hedge a bit of it with Mas dec just because its a good line

i could easily see him finish Cowboy with a body kick/punch.. i would be more surprised if Cowboy finishes Masvidal.. that said i do expect it to go to the cards

 

[iGnP]

i could easily see him finish Cowboy with a body kick/punch.. i would be more surprised if Cowboy finishes Masvidal.. that said i do expect it to go to the cards

Personally dont see it. He's not subbing Cowboy. Since 2009, the only guys that Mas has finished by strikes are jake and mutante, two guys that have been put away at a decent rate. highly unlikely imo. Mas doesnt have the power nor does he have a huge advantage in the stand up (id even argue Cerrone is a better striker)

 

[AxeMurderer]

Did you watch Shev's last fight? She is super aggressive.

yes and i think that plays right into penas strength. I think pena will get early takedown and that will slow down shev's striking. Worrying about the takedown fucks with many strikers especially when they are aggressive. I just think pena is a bad match up for her. If pena can not take her down fairly early i do agree shev should take over the fight, I just do not believe she will be able to stop the takedown.

 

[LEMONZEST]

i could easily see him finish Cowboy with a body kick/punch.. i would be more surprised if Cowboy finishes Masvidal.. that said i do expect it to go to the cards

I listened to Mas interview on Joey Diaz' podcast. He was adamant it wont hit the cards and i tend to believe him. Mas cant afford to drop a close decision. He knows this is a make or break fight for him.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

After watching tape expecting to like Knight, I'm switching to Caceres.

Knight seemed to have some issues with Hooker's rangy, more mobile striking game. He couldn't cut Hooker off and resorted to chasing, and ate a ton of straights down the pipe for it. Caceres is way better at that style than Hooker is, and his boxing is leagues ahead imo. If this fight stays standing I see Caceres using lots of footwork, kicks, and long straight punches to good effect. Knight has a stiff jab and a mean overhand but that's really all he throws boxing-wise, I think Alex can outbox him for sure.

Knight did take over the Hooker fight with his wrestling and get the win, so the question for me is whether Knight can score the TDs on Caceres and/or keep him down. It's possible but I don't think it's likely, Caceres is always on the move so he's harder to get ahold of and he's good at springing back up when he does get taken down. Alex has good timing on his TD's himself, he was getting Yair down and Knight was giving up TDs to Alers. So the wrestling and grappling are kind of up in the air for me but I favor Caceres standing up.

2u Bruce Leeroy +140.

 

[Basek]

I love Cowboy, but he's activity ,constant training and years in mma starts to show up. Sorry but Matt Brown who is ghost of himself gave him a lot of trouble and almost ktfo him.
Plus there is a liver for shot.

In other hand we have Mas who in my opinion is reaching his prime. His preasure, boxing skills , power I believe makes Donald to much trouble to handle. Maybe not like against RDA when he was paralyzed but he will give up.
Also Mas have 42 fights and just 1 KO lost , the chance to KO him is clearly small and I don't see Cowboy decision him either.
Waiting for more bets on Donald and better odds to hit Mas much higher then I hit so far.
Will be awesome bloody fight.

 

[Sham5916910]

I listened to Mas interview on Joey Diaz' podcast. He was adamant it wont hit the cards and i tend to believe him. Mas cant afford to drop a close decision. He knows this is a make or break fight for him.

My fear is unloading on Mas and him reverting to type. He does seem the right kind of crazy tho (being an ex bare knuckle fighter) to be able to change how he fights, and he came out super aggressive against Berger. I just wish that fight had gone into the 2nd or 3rd round so we could see if he kept up that ferocious pace.

 

[Sham5916910]

I love Cowboy, but he's activity ,constant training and years in mma starts to show up. Sorry but Matt Brown who is ghost of himself gave him a lot of trouble and almost ktfo him.
Plus there is a liver for shot.

In other hand we have Mas who in my opinion is reaching his prime. His preasure, boxing skills , power I believe makes Donald to much trouble to handle. Maybe not like against RDA when he was paralyzed but he will give up.
Also Mas have 42 fights and just 1 KO lost , the chance to KO him is clearly small and I don't see Cowboy decision him either.
Waiting for more bets on Donald and better odds to hit Mas
Will be awesome bloody fight.

Mas's one KO loss is bs it was a terrible stoppage. In my mind he has never been stopped.

 

[weedreference]

My fear is unloading on Mas and him reverting to type. He does seem the right kind of crazy tho (being an ex bare knuckle fighter) to be able to change how he fights, and he came out super aggressive against Berger. I just wish that fight had gone into the 2nd or 3rd round so we could see if he kept up that ferocious pace.

I wouldn't say he came out super aggressive against Jake. He was floating in kicking range the vast majority of the fight, and only got aggressive when he caught a kick or clipped him with something. I'm trying to find reasons to bet Mas myself, but I really think Cerrone is going to get the job done. He is vastly improved when it comes to protecting the distance he likes with boxing, and Masvidal loves the jabbing range that Cerrone is optimal against.