UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder

[trunksan]

Ribas + Shara Parlay = +100 so I put a couple of units on that.
Also 1.5u on RDR +140. Rob's been losing fights he should win for a while now.

Yan should win, but I don't know, I got a weird feeling about that one (at those odds)
I love to fade Bryce, so I'll probably do that.
I'm going to do some tape watch for Grant vs Blackshear.

Looking at the odds, the only parlay that I felt good about was Ribas + Yan. But with the odds as they are now neither Yan nor Shara seem worth it.

Edit: I might do Ribas + Buchecha but not much more

 

[Oblivian]

I think Said gets Mitchell's neck here.

 

[XociDe]

Huge step up from Kav and Durden? Dont think so.

Kavanagh looks good but right now he's just a prospect. I don't think he's fought anyone that was ranked in the top 50 at the time. We don't really know how good he is. And he was a step ahead of Ochoa in their fight.

Durden is 34 and obviously on the decline. He rocked Ochoa and landed multiple takedowns.

Ochoa is a dangerous fighter. He's a natural finisher. He can obviously win this fight, but he swings wild and Amlabayev will most likely be able to take advantage of that. If Ochoa defends a few takedowns and grows in confidence then yea it could get very dicey.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Said gets Mitchell's neck here.

Said is kinda small. Jean SIlva has a bigger frame (not height , muscle mass)and Mitchell fought off the first guillotine pretty well. The ninja choke only came after Jean beat him up first with strikes. I like Mitchell and his natural weight advantage here. Said has been taken down before by guys like Andrade.

 

[Oblivian]

Said is kinda small. Jean SIlva has a bigger frame (not height , muscle mass)and Mitchell fought off the first guillotine pretty well. The ninja choke only came after Jean beat him up first with strikes. I like Mitchell and his natural weight advantage here. Said has been taken down before by guys like Andrade.

I rate Said's ability to sub when he gets the neck pretty high. Look at who he's finished with the guillotine or ninja choke. They aren't guys that get subbed easy.

Honestly, I think it's arguable that Mitchell is exposed now. He's pretty one dimensional, and the real killer with that is his wrestling isn't great. So he gets pretty desperate on takedowns when they aren't there.

 

[StewDogg11]

I rate Said's ability to sub when he gets the neck pretty high. Look at who he's finished with the guillotine or ninja choke. They aren't guys that get subbed easy.

Honestly, I think it's arguable that Mitchell is exposed now. He's pretty one dimensional, and the real killer with that is his wrestling isn't great. So he gets pretty desperate on takedowns when they aren't there.

Nobody’s really outgrappled him without beating him down with strikes first though. Do you think Said is capable of that?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I rate Said's ability to sub when he gets the neck pretty high. Look at who he's finished with the guillotine or ninja choke. They aren't guys that get subbed easy.

Honestly, I think it's arguable that Mitchell is exposed now. He's pretty one dimensional, and the real killer with that is his wrestling isn't great. So he gets pretty desperate on takedowns when they aren't there.

His subs are good , but against much smaller guys.

Bryce panic wrestles with guys like Jean Silva who hit far harder than Said. Even against Tuporia he took him down, and he did better than Charles Oliveira did . He landed clean strikes several times against Tuporia and Silva. He also beat Ige and Barboza who he out struck. Vs Said who is losing to a smaller fighter like Jonathan Martinez.

Bryce is the favorite here imo.

 

[Oblivian]

Nobody’s really outgrappled him without beating him down with strikes first though. Do you think Said is capable of that?

I definitely think Said can make him uncomfortable standing to shoot from the outside.

 

[PuertoRican]

Said's cardio is what is preventing me from betting him against a guy who will pressure him and take him down.

Said needs space to feel comfortable and strike from a distance. Once that space is taken away, he offers nothing aside from a ninja choke, and if he doesn't win via ninja choke in R1, he'll be on his back and get tired faster than usual and he'll be a sitting duck in R2.

I'd rather bet Bryce Mitchell -120 with a small hedge on Said Nurmagomedov submission +350.

Note: There is the fact that Mitchell is dropping down to bantamweight for this fight, but if his cardio holds up, his size and strength will be a big factor.

 

[Thesnake101]

Nobody’s really outgrappled him without beating him down with strikes first though. Do you think Said is capable of that?

I mean, Said doesn't need to outgrapple Bryce or even have much success to snatch the neck. Just look at his fight with Saidyokub, losing until he wasn't.

Sub line for Nurmagomedov is the way to play him imo. If he wins it will be like that.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean, Said doesn't need to outgrapple Bryce or even have much success to snatch the neck. Just look at his fight with Saidyokub, losing until he wasn't.

But he also failed twice in his attempt with Martinez in round 1. Is he even capable of doing that to a 5'10 fighter who normally fights at 145'lb ?

and even Andrade who got subbed by Rob Font went to the scorecards. I think relying on a sub or bust at pick em odds seems off in terms of value.

Bryce is better everywhere else. He's got a size and strength advantage, mainly because Martinez was able to push Said back to the cage fairly easier. I remember i used this same argument with Venicius about the strength difference, and he was indeed out grappled by Vinicius too.

 

[Thesnake101]

But he also failed twice in his attempt with Martinez in round 1. Is he even capable of doing that to a 5'10 fighter who normally fights at 145'lb ?

and even Andrade who got subbed by Rob Font went to the scorecards. I think relying on a sub or bust at pick em odds seems off in terms of value.

Bryce is better everywhere else. He's got a size and strength advantage, mainly because Martinez was able to push Said back to the cage fairly easier. I remember i used this same argument with Venicius about the strength difference, and he was indeed out grappled by Vinicius too.

I think Bryce being so one-dimensional bites him in the ass here, it's gonna give Said many chances to try and grab the neck and it'll either succeed or not. For +310 I think it's worth a stab, especially since Said has 2 subs in 2 minutes combined.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Bryce being so one-dimensional bites him in the ass here, it's gonna give Said many chances to try and grab the neck and it'll either succeed or not. For +310 I think it's worth a stab, especially since Said has 2 subs in 2 minutes combined.

i don’t see him as one dimensional, he has some decent hands.

 

[Thesnake101]

i don’t see him as one dimensional, he has some decent hands.

I disagree, keep in mind Tito has dropped both Wand and Bader but he's still a pretty damn bad striker. Takedown threat, pressure and finding one good shot can go a long way to mask your lack of skills in an area. Though I guess I should say that, between he and Said, I think Said's kicks are more than enough to consistently force Bryce to go for the wrestling as opposed to staying on the feet.

For a more recent example look at Patchy caving Stots' head in with a knee and then compare that to him looking extremely amateurish against Bautista.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I disagree, keep in mind Tito has dropped both Wand and Bader but he's still a pretty damn bad striker. Takedown threat, pressure and finding one good shot can go a long way to mask your lack of skills in an area. Though I guess I should say that, between he and Said, I think Said's kicks are more than enough to consistently force Bryce to go for the wrestling as opposed to staying on the feet.

For a more recent example look at Patchy caving Stots' head in with a knee and then compare that to him looking extremely amateurish against Bautista.

I don’t think Said has that ability to cancel Bryce 100% grappling like Tuporia or Jean. They both got taken down in fact.

Said is likely to fall victim to that mix wrestler/boxing style that leaves him open to big shots. like Merab, Bryce fights similarly and i don’t see Said having the best tdd or physical gifts to cancel Mitchell. If Vinicius and Andrade took him down and Jon held him against the cage a lot, Bryce can bully him.

we shall see, i think, the summary is Said sub or bust, or decision Mitchell.

 

[StewDogg11]

I disagree, keep in mind Tito has dropped both Wand and Bader but he's still a pretty damn bad striker. Takedown threat, pressure and finding one good shot can go a long way to mask your lack of skills in an area. Though I guess I should say that, between he and Said, I think Said's kicks are more than enough to consistently force Bryce to go for the wrestling as opposed to staying on the feet.

For a more recent example look at Patchy caving Stots' head in with a knee and then compare that to him looking extremely amateurish against Bautista.

I disagree about Tito being a bad striker. Basic yes but “damn bad”? No way.

 

[Guld]

I think Mitchell is taking a bit of a risk cutting down.
IMO he should have just packed on some more muscle at FW.
He's already very hittable and kinda tall/lanky.
Sure, he'll be against guys that don't hit quite as hard, but dehydrating himself to make weight probably isn't going to help his poor brain.
Said is far from a KO artist so maybe this will give him the size/leverage advantage he needs to win this one, but it seems like a risky strat to me.

 

[LordHellraiser]

Personally on McGhee to upset Yan. Got over a rack down, and gonna pile more after weigh ins. People misreading McGhees fight against Martinez. Yan won't be able take maniacs legs out. McGhee is a beast. World is gonna see Saturday.

 

[BigSteve]

Kavanagh looks good but right now he's just a prospect. I don't think he's fought anyone that was ranked in the top 50 at the time. We don't really know how good he is. And he was a step ahead of Ochoa in their fight.

Durden is 34 and obviously on the decline. He rocked Ochoa and landed multiple takedowns.

Ochoa is a dangerous fighter. He's a natural finisher. He can obviously win this fight, but he swings wild and Amlabayev will most likely be able to take advantage of that. If Ochoa defends a few takedowns and grows in confidence then yea it could get very dicey.

Whats Asus best win? And where is he now

 

[JoeBobbaLou2]

Going big on RdR. Rob Whitaker is damaged goods, doesn’t have that fire in him anymore.

Rdr by 3rd round stoppage