UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder

[Stat_Collector]

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, July 26, 2025 with 12 fights at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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Main Event​

• Robert Whittaker -175 vs. Reinier de Ridder +150

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Main Card​

• Shara Magomedov -500 vs. Marc-André Barriault +375
• Petr Yan -370 vs. Marcus McGhee +285
• Bryce Mitchell +100 vs. Said Nurmagomedov -130

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Prelims​

• Ibo Aslan -280 vs. Billy Elekana +210
• Nikita Krylov -190 vs. Bogdan Guskov +165
• Amanda Ribas -140 vs. Tabatha Ricci +120
• Muslim Salikhov +300 vs. Carlos Leal -400
• Da'Mon Blackshear -245 vs. Davey Grant +205
• Mohammad Yahya (No odds listed) vs. Steven Nguyen (No odds listed)
• Martin Buday +170 vs. Marcus Buchecha -200
• Asu Almabayev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -120

 

[Stat_Collector]

Bogdan sticks out.

Ribas.

Maybe RDR

 

[PuertoRican]

This is the only bet I have for this fight card. Nothing else stands out to me yet.

II'll wait for totals and props before I bet anything else on this card.

 

[XociDe]

I wanted to go big on Rob but I've got PTSD from the Dricus fight. One of my biggest ever bets and he got smoked. I was max confidence lol. I can see it happening again. RDR is huge, strong, constant pressure + just awkward and goofy af. With that said, I'm picking Rob and I'll probably kick myself for not betting it.

Got in early on Shara at around -220 or so. Current odds are steep but I think he might be worth it. I bet Barriault against Bruno Silva but I don't rate him at all. He kinda sucks tbh.

I think Blackshear is good for a parlay piece. Yan should show his class.

 

[sonhow]

I think Rob is too much for RDR but I'll gladly be proven wrong because it would be way better for the div if RDR won. Im not completely sold on RDR being a contender because of how bad Bo looked.
Bryce only lost to special fighters so far and while Nurm is good he aint special. I'll take Bryce as small dog.
Ribas vs Ricci is Ribas vs Virna unless Ribas is declining.
Too bad Evloev dropped out -was the best fight on the card on paper. Yan, Bullet and Leal seem straightforward to me. Im not beting against Grant anymore -theres a case that he should be 5-0 in past 5. Def 4-1 as he was robbed vs Marcos.

 

[Dooze]

Will look at Blackshear via sub odds when they're out, think he can probably get it.

Yan Dec is probably the play, but McGhee seems tough, I like how aggressive he is and glad to see him getting a step up here. Yan is a world class fighter so he'll be tough to beat but I think this will be a war. I think Yan likely gets the better of exchanges but McGhee will land on him. If the odds for McGhee by decision are juicy enough I might take a small bite at it, perhaps look at a points spread instead though, he might take R1, Yan can be a bit of a slow starter and McGhee comes out aggressively quickly. I think it's likely a 29-28 type of fight.

Whittaker I think should take this, things get interesting if RDR can take him down and he is quite a big fella and obviously strong but it's rare you see someone ragdoll Whittaker, his TDD is generally elite (which makes Khamzats fight against him more impressive). I think if he can't get Whittaker down then Rob should piece him up on the feet, I just can't see him having anything for Rob standing.

 

[Guld]

Ribas + Shara Parlay = +100 so I put a couple of units on that.
Also 1.5u on RDR +140. Rob's been losing fights he should win for a while now.

Yan should win, but I don't know, I got a weird feeling about that one (at those odds)
I love to fade Bryce, so I'll probably do that.
I'm going to do some tape watch for Grant vs Blackshear.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I wanted to go big on Rob but I've got PTSD from the Dricus fight. One of my biggest ever bets and he got smoked. I was max confidence lol. I can see it happening again. RDR is huge, strong, constant pressure + just awkward and goofy af. With that said, I'm picking Rob and I'll probably kick myself for not betting it.

Got in early on Shara at around -220 or so. Current odds are steep but I think he might be worth it. I bet Barriault against Bruno Silva but I don't rate him at all. He kinda sucks tbh.

I think Blackshear is good for a parlay piece. Yan should show his class.

I have mix feelings about RdR

the fight with Aung 2 he could not secure a submission. And he got reversed by him in round 5, a bjj champ reversed/swept by a striker and ending up on the bottom.

His sub with Holland(and GM3) have average sub defense, and Khamzat has better hip ctrl that kept Rob down. If RdR cant secure the sub at any point in the first two rounds, Rob is live for a ko or dec.

edit: Rewatched Gm3 he also got swept by him too. That r3 sub was a lot to do with exhaustion, and Rob has good cardio, i think he's the pick here or a live bet.

 

[XociDe]

I have mix feelings about RdR

the fight with Aung 2 he could not secure a submission. And he got reversed by him in round 5, a bjj champ reversed/swept by a striker and ending up on the bottom.

His sub with Holland(and GM3) have average sub defense, and Khamzat has better hip ctrl that kept Rob down. If RdR cant secure the sub at any point in the first two rounds, Rob is live for a ko or dec.

edit: Rewatched Gm3 he also got swept by him too. That r3 sub was a lot to do with exhaustion, and Rob has good cardio, i think he's the pick here or a live bet.

I think RDR sucks skill-wise. I bet Bo (lol). The issue is, Dricus looked the same on his come up. They both have a strange and sloppy style but just get the job done. I can see his weirdness and physicality combining to cause Rob issues in this fight. He's gonna have a 4 inch height and reach advantage. Size and strength are generally more important in the higher weight classes. I mean does anyone think Dricus is a more skilled fighter than Rob? Definitely not. He's just an absolute brute and Rob had no answer.

If Rob outclasses RDR I won't be shocked. He is the pick, and his ML is not bad. I'm just not letting myself get burned twice.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think RDR sucks skill-wise. I bet Bo (lol). The issue is, Dricus looked the same on his come up. They both have a strange and sloppy style but just get the job done. I can see his weirdness and physicality combining to cause Rob issues in this fight. He's gonna have a 4 inch height and reach advantage. Size and strength are generally more important in the higher weight classes. I mean does anyone think Dricus is a more skilled fighter than Rob? Definitely not. He's just an absolute brute and Rob had no answer.

If Rob outclasses RDR I won't be shocked. He is the pick, and his ML is not bad. I'm just not letting myself get burned twice.

Dricus was different, heavy handed and awkward, but RdR is not a good striker or heavy handed, just a relentless clinch fighter with grappling that gets countered and swept at times.

Anatoly is only 5'11(slightly smaller than Rob) and his striking is sloppy, he may be a national champ wrestler, but i do think Rob is solid enough to keep it standing. Rob is overall a better fighter than Anatoly. And i don't think that Rob would lose to any of the guys RdR has beaten thus far. Rob would have beaten Bo Nickal too.

Rewatching Gm3 fight , getting put on his back and watch Aung put him on his back and Anatoly beat him twice, suggest maybe a few things: RdR is not a consistent fighter, and he's not a gritty fighter that tough out 5 rounds. He basically loss via retirement. Which means Anatoly just beat him down to the point of exhaustion.. I say Rdr has 10 minutes of danger, 15 minutes of shitting the bed if he can't get Rob out. My pro stat method favors Rob because his time lapse for winning is higher.

 

[mkess101]

I have mix feelings about RdR

the fight with Aung 2 he could not secure a submission. And he got reversed by him in round 5, a bjj champ reversed/swept by a striker and ending up on the bottom.

His sub with Holland(and GM3) have average sub defense, and Khamzat has better hip ctrl that kept Rob down. If RdR cant secure the sub at any point in the first two rounds, Rob is live for a ko or dec.

edit: Rewatched Gm3 he also got swept by him too. That r3 sub was a lot to do with exhaustion, and Rob has good cardio, i think he's the pick here or a live bet.

IMO...RDR was undervalued vs Nickal (obviously) but is getting overvalued here. He's a pretty sloppy (if unpredictable--which can be a good thing) striker. His TD's are WORLDS apart from Khamzat, I just don't see RDR taking Rob down easily AT ALL. And Rob should be able to hit RDR pretty consistently.

 

[Stat_Collector]

IMO...RDR was undervalued vs Nickal (obviously) but is getting overvalued here. He's a pretty sloppy (if unpredictable--which can be a good thing) striker. His TD's are WORLDS apart from Khamzat, I just don't see RDR taking Rob down easily AT ALL. And Rob should be able to hit RDR pretty consistently.

Yeah Khamzat has much better relentless cage grappling , I also think Khamzat just has freakish strength. That facial crank was due to a massive squeeze that split his jaw.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah Khamzat has much better relentless cage grappling , I also think Khamzat just has freakish strength. That facial crank was due to a massive squeeze that split his jaw.

He's also just technically a generational grappler. His transitions are flawless. People don't realize how good the guy is with his grappling.

 

[Aurelian]

I've bet on Reindeer in his first 3 UFC fights, but I think Rob beats him here.

Bogdan looks like decent enough value.

I like Almubayev in this one against Ochoa.

Edit: Bryce Mitchell looks like a solid bet as well.

 

[XociDe]

Almabayev/Ochoa as a pick em seems a bit odd. Any Ochoa believers? I would've thought Almabayev would be a solid favorite.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Almabayev/Ochoa as a pick em seems a bit odd. Any Ochoa believers? I would've thought Almabayev would be a solid favorite.

Ochoa looks like a natural fighter, he also fights fast pace and likes to take chances. Asu is just more methodical and seasoned. I can see some value in Ochoa, but only if he was an underdog. I don't like these pickem odds.

 

[XociDe]

After a bit more tape and thinking, I like Almabayev quite a lot here. I don't see how he's not the betting favorite. It's short notice for Ochoa, a huge step up in competition, and a tough style for him to deal with.

Almabayev likely dives at his legs for 3 rounds and wins a decision imo.

 

[Trupsi]

After a bit more tape and thinking, I like Almabayev quite a lot here. I don't see how he's not the betting favorite. It's short notice for Ochoa, a huge step up in competition, and a tough style for him to deal with.

Almabayev likely dives at his legs for 3 rounds and wins a decision imo.

Ochoa was taken down twice by Durden quite easily in R1. On the first, he was able to get up due to a mistake of Durden, but on the second he was stuck for a minute until the end of the round.
I'd say Asu is a better wrestler than Durden and can spam TD and chain wrestle.

 

[jnes]

Initial glance I like Guskov as a decent dog, I missed the Mitchell + money line but he still might have value. Main event screams whoever wins looks like a -500 fav, either a Rob masterclass or he's washed and RDR smashes him. I'm leaning Rob at the moment, no shame in losing to Khamzat who's a very rare breed of fighter and I think RDR might be getting over valued for his destruction of Bo Nickal who let's be honest, is not a good fighter.

 

[BigSteve]

After a bit more tape and thinking, I like Almabayev quite a lot here. I don't see how he's not the betting favorite. It's short notice for Ochoa, a huge step up in competition, and a tough style for him to deal with.

Almabayev likely dives at his legs for 3 rounds and wins a decision imo.

Huge step up from Kav and Durden? Dont think so.