UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira

[Stat_Collector]

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, October 12, 2024 with 13 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3500

 

[Stat_Collector]

Royval seems very obvious in this spot. Lucas Rocha as well, deserve deep tape.

 

[StewDogg11]

Rodriguez should kill Morono. -200 still seems like good value.

 

[Thesnake101]

Argueta over an untested Contender Series aussie at +150? I'm taking that.

 

[Macaque]

Chidi should beat Jared quite comfortably. At least, much more comfortably than his current line (63%) would imply.

Hopefully we get a generous Chidi DEC line, much like last time out.

 

[Stat_Collector]

A few fading the narratives:

Garimbo Dec 300+ ^
Royval ko 500+ ^
Pearce ko 350+^ or Sabatini sub 250+^
Barnett dec 500+^ or Tafa dec 600+^
Rocha ko 250+^
Fremd dec 250+^ or sub 250+^
Park sub 500+^

dont have the odds, i might be off a lot, but these are discussions i prefer to have over 'ML who wins discussions. '

 

[Thesnake101]

Chidi should beat Jared quite comfortably. At least, much more comfortably than his current line (63%) would imply.

Hopefully we get a generous Chidi DEC line, much like last time out.

Chidi rd 1 (both of Jared's KO losses have been in the 1st) or decision seem like a good way to play it. He either finds an elbow/knee early, or he'll settle into a slower pace fight I think.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'll take some Sabatini based on Pearce usually pushing the grappling and I think Sabatini is the better grappler and doesn't have the cardio issues Makwan did.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'll take some Sabatini based on Pearce usually pushing the grappling and I think Sabatini is the better grappler and doesn't have the cardio issues Makwan did.

Thinking about that one too, maybe Pat sub prop since that's probably going to be crazy odds (+400 and higher I presume).

Honestly might play FDGTD as well. Think that if Pearce wins he might crack Pat standing with something and finish him, since Pat's chin doesn't seem like the best.

 

[Guld]

A few fading the narratives:

Garimbo Dec 300+ ^
Royval ko 500+ ^
Pearce ko 350+^ or Sabatini sub 250+^
Bennet dec 500+^ or Tafa dec 600+^
Rocha ko 250+^
Fremd dec 250+^ or sub 250+^
Park sub 500+^

dont have the odds, i might be off a lot, but these are discussions i prefer to have over 'ML who wins discussions. '

I'm favoring Taira ML, but Royval by KO seems like the next most likely outcome.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm favoring Taira ML, but Royval by KO seems like the next most likely outcome.

yeah, Sub is unlikely, and it eliminates a main method of victory.

It's similar to Moicano vs Benoit, in that Benoit had sub defense which opened the door for a ko prop.

I think Royval knocking down Kai-Kara France and piecing up Moreno leaves the door open for a tko finish.

Taira is a good fighter but was dropped by Chairez. Unless Royval just gets wrestled for 5 rounds it's his likely way of losing.

 

[sonhow]

Rodriguez should kill Morono. -200 still seems like good value.

Agreed but I must ask the question I forgot to ask last week with Court. Did they rebuild him in a lab or something?

 

[Guld]

yeah, Sub is unlikely, and it eliminates a main method of victory.

It's similar to Moicano vs Benoit, in that Benoit had sub defense which opened the door for a ko prop.

I think Royval knocking down Kai-Kara France and piecing up Moreno leaves the door open for a tko finish.

Taira is a good fighter but was dropped by Chairez. Unless Royval just gets wrestled for 5 rounds it's his likely way of losing.

I think Royval could lose by Decision or Sub. Maybe even GnP/TKO? but that seems less likely.
That's why I'm grabbing Taira ML. Covers all of those options, and at -200 seemed a fair return.
I think if Royval does find some big success with his hands then Taira turtling up or getting overwhelmed with strikes seems very plausible. It would be unwise of Royval to go for a Sub of his own, or even GnP, because that plays into Taira's grappling strength/ground game.
So yeah, let's hope the Royval by KO line is a good one, because it's definitely the hedge play IMO.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Royval could lose by Decision or Sub. Maybe even GnP/TKO? but that seems less likely.
That's why I'm grabbing Taira ML. Covers all of those options, and at -200 seemed a fair return.
I think if Royval does find some big success with his hands then Taira turtling up or getting overwhelmed with strikes seems very plausible. It would be unwise of Royval to go for a Sub of his own, or even GnP, because that plays into Taira's grappling strength/ground game.
So yeah, let's hope the Royval by KO line is a good one, because it's definitely the hedge play IMO.

I also would say it's less likely. Pantoja is a better sub specialist and more aggressive striker than Taira. If he can survive 5 rounds with a more aggressive fighter, I think he makes it to the scorecards. I also look at who has spent more time with better fighters, and it's why i'm picking Royval, those fights with Moreno and Pantoja are going to level him up into an elite fighter.

 

[rev0lver]

I like Alhassan, Chidi, and Temirov a lot here even at their lines. Just worried about Alhassan showing age, or Chidi crumbling when he gets hit again.

 

[guesswhoseback]

A few fading the narratives:

Garimbo Dec 300+ ^
Royval ko 500+ ^
Pearce ko 350+^ or Sabatini sub 250+^
Bennet dec 500+^ or Tafa dec 600+^
Rocha ko 250+^
Fremd dec 250+^ or sub 250+^
Park sub 500+^

dont have the odds, i might be off a lot, but these are discussions i prefer to have over 'ML who wins discussions. '

Gembino dec I like
Royval will lose I'll prob bet the over 3.5
Pearce dec is my pick but Pearce ml is the way to go
I like Barnett to pull off the big upset+325 currently I'll prob play his +3.5 line
I like carpenter ko1 the under is 2.5 + money will prob take that
I like all hassan
I also like park sub

 

[rev0lver]

Bennet dec 500+^ or Tafa dec 600+^

I think this is extremely unlikely tbh. Junior's only had slow fights out of being forced to grapple. Barnett's not much of a wrestling threat. So while a Barnett finish might be worth a sprinkle if he hits something wild, I think this is one of the safest bets you have to finish ITD.

 

[StewDogg11]

Agreed but I must ask the question I forgot to ask last week with Court. Did they rebuild him in a lab or something?

Apparently they did lol. He got both his neck and shoulder fixed apparently.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think this is extremely unlikely tbh. Junior's only had slow fights out of being forced to grapple. Barnett's not much of a wrestling threat. So while a Barnett finish might be worth a sprinkle if he hits something wild, I think this is one of the safest bets you have to finish ITD.

Both guys have decent chins.

Reminds me of Rozenstruk vs Tuvasa

 

[mkess101]

I also would say it's less likely. Pantoja is a better sub specialist and more aggressive striker than Taira. If he can survive 5 rounds with a more aggressive fighter, I think he makes it to the scorecards. I also look at who has spent more time with better fighters, and it's why i'm picking Royval, those fights with Moreno and Pantoja are going to level him up into an elite fighter.

It was kind of a surprising fight in some ways. It was like Pantoja wanted to prove he could just hold Royval down and stymie him. I'd never have imagined that there would be that much grappling and no sub. Not because Royval is a bad grappler, but he's always been SO aggressive that he is willing to put himself in bad spots and believe he can scramble out of them. He took less chances vs Pantoja, and when he did take a chance Pantoja really just seemed to favor getting control back vs finding a sub of his own.
IDK if Royval will respect Taira's grappling to that level or not? To where he reigns himself in and locks down a defensive guard vs throwing up low % sub attempts just to get a reaction and cause a scramble. Will be interesting to see.