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UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie

I just put $50 on Martinez @ +100 on BAS. I’ll take an active Martinez @ plus money over ring rusted Almieda any day.
 
There's an interview out there of Ortega commenting on Dana's reaction of him not taking a short notice fight back when Holloway pulled out of their first scheduled bout.

He was shook, and basically said he didn't know, "that side of the business" and that Dana basically pulled him into a room and scared the shit out of him.

Despite being inactive, I guarantee he's still on Dana's shit list. If they wanted to build Ortega up, they wouldn't throw him in there against a monster like TKZ.

The fact that Ortega still has this much hype around him is absolutely mind boggling.

Dude loses 2 rounds to Guida before finishing him, chokes out an old Swanson, and KO's Edgar(who I legitimately think wins that fight 9 times out of 10).

Then he gets his ass absolutely handed to him by Holloway, who doesn't have the TDD or BJJ that TKZ does(I'm not saying tkz > Holloway, they're just not the same on the mat).

I just don't see his PTV. Sub a monster of a black belt, who has never been sub'd before?

I'm not trying to hate on Brian. I think he has a good chance against a lot of the top 10. But TKZ is a fucking awful matchup for him.
 
AK-47 said:
Been watching tape on Cyril Gane and Ante Delija. Might make a small stab on Ante Delija at +400. Anyone got any leans on this. Delija is very aggressive and his ground and pound reminds me of Fedor. Obviously he wont be able to use soccer kicks this time around but getting a slight inkling he might pull an upset off
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i took a stab on Delija here at +450, and Delija DEC at +1400. Those lines are way too wide for someone with Ante's level of experience against someone that made their pro-debut in 2018. Also on the over 1.5.
 
ok been taping the main event and here are my cliff notes of what I think will happen:

  • KZ will pressure from the opening bell, taking the middle of the octagon and make little reads while he feints
  • Ortega will throw jabs to keep distance and to make reads for further rounds on how he can attack the neck
  • in late 1R, KZ will feint, get his head off the line to avoid a lazy jab and come over with a right hand hook to drop Ortega and he'll finish him with some ground strikes
this may sound like fan fiction that i've all fantasized in my head but i think it's somewhat a likely scenario given what i've seen of the fighters.

some notes:
  • I don't think Ortega's been hit by anyone with the power of KZ. In fact, I think KZ is the hardest puncher in the division
  • will ring rust be an issue? I think it might affect Ortega more than KZ, as we've seen KZ take long breaks in between fighting
  • how will the bad blood translate into the fight? Sometimes it makes the fighters less aggressive due to fear of losing, sometimes it makes them wild and open for counters
  • KZ will have to be very careful on how he counters and dodges, if he leans either way or initiates the clinch, Ortega will jump on that neck which is his best PTV
TL;DR: Bet KZ if the ML gets to ~150. I'd imagine lots of CA people will bet down ortega closer to fight day

WARNING: I thought moraes would beat sandhagen last week so take this with a grain of salt :P
 
2020Tracked said:
He opened +150 all the money has came in on Martinez
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I know... out of the 3 bookies I’m on, BAS is the last with him at plus money. I hesitated on +150 and after tape threw $50 on him @ +100. I should’ve said, “ he’s STILL at plus money”...
 
7 months ago I bet my entire bankroll on Kevin motherfuckin' Lee, and said if he lost I'd retire from MMA betting/Sherdog.

I disappeared for a while, but I'm back with a vengeance.

Hope everyone has been well. Lesson learned -- don't throw your entire bankroll on one fight, ESPECIALLY if it's Kevin Lee(for the record, his standup was looking decent. The SECOND he shot in for that low quality TD in the third round, I knew he was done. Fight IQ of a chipmunk).
 
Invictis said:
7 months ago I bet my entire bankroll on Kevin motherfuckin' Lee, and said if he lost I'd retire from MMA betting/Sherdog.

I disappeared for a while, but I'm back with a vengeance.

Hope everyone has been well. Lesson learned -- don't throw your entire bankroll on one fight, ESPECIALLY if it's Kevin Lee(for the record, his standup was looking decent. The SECOND he shot in for that low quality TD in the third round, I knew he was done. Fight IQ of a chipmunk).
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YESSSSSSS. I’m so happy you’re alive and well. I almost pulled a “you” last week after Sadistics put $5k on Kelly and $3600 on Tom Breese but I bitched out. I was going to put 1/2 my bankroll on each fighter...

Anyways, glad you’re back and with a vengeance and ready to win some money again. <GinJuice>
 
I will throw a small sparkle on Mark Striegl.
There is a narrative going on with Ortega that he wants to come back and fight in more fight cards. Among another issue. Even though he did have a two year lay off which worries but i had seen some tapes of him training.

His looking good. Dispute the two year lay but we shall see how he stands at the weigh in.
 
Last edited:
Invictis said:
7 months ago I bet my entire bankroll on Kevin motherfuckin' Lee, and said if he lost I'd retire from MMA betting/Sherdog.

I disappeared for a while, but I'm back with a vengeance.

Hope everyone has been well. Lesson learned -- don't throw your entire bankroll on one fight, ESPECIALLY if it's Kevin Lee(for the record, his standup was looking decent. The SECOND he shot in for that low quality TD in the third round, I knew he was done. Fight IQ of a chipmunk).
Click to expand...
Lee was getting taken apart on the feet my man, he had to shoot

Either way welcome back
 
BigSteve said:
Lee was getting taken apart on the feet my man, he had to shoot

Either way welcome back
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I'll take your word for it. I was in a drunken fog most of March because of the pandemic, probably why I made that bet in the first place.

And I haven't rewatched it since. I remember him taking Oliveira down in the first two rounds, but struggling to advance position or do anything offensively with his takedowns.

When round 3 came around, I think he landed a nice little combo, and shot shortly thereafter and got choked out.

Anyways, I need to find tape on Delija -- does Gane really deserve to be a -600 favorite? Only one way to find out.

Other than that, looking at a Zombie/Andrade parlay. But I despise betting on favorites in WMMA.
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
That's some quality breakdown, thank you for that bro.
The fgtd is worth a stab, at -185, there is a little value on that if you ask me.
As you said, Chook isn't koing Andrade for shit, and I don't see Andrade koing Chook on the feet either. The only thing Chook has to do is surviving on the ground, which I think she is capable of.
I like your read on Botelho/Robertson.
Will tape those two a bit more but I think I will pass on this one, or take a lil stab at a prop just for the sake of it.

Other topic, I just saw that Ortega/KZ FGTD is +205. Is everyone that sure KZ finishes Ortega here? Guy has a granite chin and is as tough as it gets, maybe there is value there.
Of course there is also the possibility Ortega subs KZ, but I clearly don't see how he takes him down so his only path to victory is some flying/highlight reel type of sub IMO, which isn't that likely to happen either.
Of course, it's a bit of a blind bet since Ortega hasn't fought for 2 years, since the disgusting beating Max put on him, maybe nor his chin nor his confidence are there anymore.
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Yeah, I wouldn't put more than .1 or .2u on Robertson sub. It's low level WMMA during covid so for all I know Robertson will wall and stall then "lose" a split decision.

I haven't seen much ground and pound from Andrade that makes me think she'll finish, but it could definitely happen. Chookagian brain farted against Shevchenko and jumped guard in the clinch then easily got taken down to side control and crucifixed immediately, but before that her guard was good and she wasn't taking too much damage on the ground. Chookagian has also been working with John Danaher so her guard is probably better than before.

Initially said:
There's an interview out there of Ortega commenting on Dana's reaction of him not taking a short notice fight back when Holloway pulled out of their first scheduled bout.

He was shook, and basically said he didn't know, "that side of the business" and that Dana basically pulled him into a room and scared the shit out of him.

Despite being inactive, I guarantee he's still on Dana's shit list. If they wanted to build Ortega up, they wouldn't throw him in there against a monster like TKZ.

The fact that Ortega still has this much hype around him is absolutely mind boggling.

Dude loses 2 rounds to Guida before finishing him, chokes out an old Swanson, and KO's Edgar(who I legitimately think wins that fight 9 times out of 10).

Then he gets his ass absolutely handed to him by Holloway, who doesn't have the TDD or BJJ that TKZ does(I'm not saying tkz > Holloway, they're just not the same on the mat).

I just don't see his PTV. Sub a monster of a black belt, who has never been sub'd before?

I'm not trying to hate on Brian. I think he has a good chance against a lot of the top 10. But TKZ is a fucking awful matchup for him.
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Isn't TKZ a BJJ brown belt? He was taken down by Aldo in every round, but Aldo is much more explosive than Ortega and Jung was gassed in the 4th. Bermudez couldn't get it down early so it looks like TKZ has pretty good takedown defense and Ortega will tire himself out if he goes for takedowns. Ortega looked a little gassed in the 2nd against Holloway probably because he worked so hard for those hips and that single leg. Ortega's ring rust due to knee injury doesn't look good for his grappling or cardio either. Jung looked fine off his back against Aldo and has pretty good getups so I don't think Ortega will have success there if he gets it down, but I could see Ortega getting that hockey shirt over the back style clinch and grabbing a front choke. This fight seems a little risky to bet, but it's clear Ortega is sub or bust.

Vitor Apologist said:
Aggressive /=/ going for the finish.
only plays I’m making will be on main event of course, Chookagian via dec (placed 2 I’d already), and a potential play on JY PARK
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I like Park in this. He's facing a British striker with no wrestling and almost no ground game who is basically TKO or lose. Park has a solid chin and better footwork with more technical hands and he prefers basic 1-2s, nothing flashy, so he should land at will, but I really doubt he'll crack Phillips' chin. Park has shown he can take people down, but it looks like he's flailing every time he ducks under for a double. I do think that's enough to get Phillips down if Park gets rocked or decides to avoid the striking. Phillips is super tough, but he's only got a puncher's chance. Do you think Park has the BJJ to get a sub? All his sub wins look weak, but maybe I'm clueless. I mean, Phillips/Byrd was ridiculously bad, but it was his first UFC fight.
 
Cyril Gane fight is off because who knows, their both big bitches I suppose
 
Initially said:
The fact that Ortega still has this much hype around him is absolutely mind boggling.
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I'm not sure how you're defining hype here, but Zombie is currently sitting sitting in the -190 to -200 range, so whatever hype Ortega has doesn't seem to resonating with bettors.

Initially said:
Dude loses 2 rounds to Guida before finishing him, chokes out an old Swanson, and KO's Edgar(who I legitimately think wins that fight 9 times out of 10).
Click to expand...

Two judges had the Guida fight 19-19 headed to the third and he was clearly ahead in that round before the finish. Had the fight gone the distance, he in all likelihood would have won a split decision. You also neglected to mention the Moicano fight, which is another instance where the narrative is that Ortega was losing until he won, when that wasn't the case.

Initially said:
I just don't see his PTV. Sub a monster of a black belt, who has never been sub'd before?
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Zombie is a brown belt.

Also, I'm not saying I favor Ortega or even that he's necessarily a good bet at current prices.
 
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