UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie

Current leans - Martinez, Crute, (Gane obs) Jessica Andrade.

Started tape loving Silva.. Ended it thinking maybe Krause just has next level of dog in him and a few tricks up his sleeve. Reminds me of Brad Riddell.


Only ahit Fights left to tape
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Great extension. Downloaded it. Works nicely. Thanks bud. Good work on that. Thank you so much for sharing it.

Would something like this be possible to create for bookmakers too? Its to me insane that so many pros have barely any clue about implied probablity. I think it needs to be learned.

One thing I can recommend is have a sheet with the numbers in front of you. Percentages - decimals - american odds is what I´ve done, possibly on your phone too, and a mug with it aswell. And then learn it so you know instantly what like -335 approx is in percentages. You dont need to know exactly what 1.43 or 1.45 is but just know what 1.40 and 1.45 approx is within a 5% range, and you´re good. It really helps out with livebetting. So you can easily say "what 30%? this should be 40% at least!" And do a quick bet.
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I actually never thought of living betting. Mostly cause I am not the biggest fan of live betting but that is a good idea. I originally was planning on making this extension work for all the bookies list on bestfightodds.com but that was too much work. I am down to make this work for other sites provided that have live betting. Does bookmakers have good live betting?

BTW can a mod give me permission to make a new thread for my extension? Thanks!
 
As much as I liked TKZ via KO, I think I see more value in the dec prop... Ortega had plenty of time to recover his chin and I don’t see him getting wiped out unless he’s really been slacking...

still indecisive between RD1 or rd2 Ko, or unanimous decision...

either way, I’m gonna go ham on TKZ ML. Anything below -200 is value for me. Hopefully we can get some Mexican money and casual money backing the dog.

I think -175 is about right, i predict that it will dip to as low as -150 on 5d/BAS...

cant wait
 
Vitor Apologist said:
Chookagian and Andrade via decision both at +175 on BOL...

I am a big Andrade fan and tbh I could see her exposing chookagians weak ground game. Valentina is not the most physically imposing chick but she pinned her down in a crucifix and ended her IIRC pretty quickly.
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You're kidding, right? Valentina is by far the best grappler at 125 pounds. At this point, her grappling game might actually be even better than her striking. She is also absurdly physically strong.

The way she repeatedly took Joanna J. down with ease, or the ridiculous way she picked up Liz Carmouche (arguably the second best grappler at 125 pounds) from a waistlock into a thunderous slam should make this point very obvious.

Andrade may win or even be valued correctly, but she is nowhere near the grappler Valentina is.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
You're kidding, right? Valentina is by far the best grappler at 125 pounds. At this point, her grappling game might actually be even better than her striking. She is also absurdly physically strong.

The way she repeatedly took Joanna J. down with ease, or the ridiculous way she picked up Liz Carmouche (arguably the second best grappler at 125 pounds) from a waistlock into a thunderous slam should make this point very obvious.

Andrade may win or even be valued correctly, but she is nowhere near the grappler Valentina is.
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You’re right about Valentina being the best grappler at 125, but that doesn’t mean she’s a grappling demon.

Jessica was also able to get the takedowns but no control. Just think chookagians PTV is more likely then jessica.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
As much as I liked TKZ via KO, I think I see more value in the dec prop... Ortega had plenty of time to recover his chin and I don’t see him getting wiped out unless he’s really been slacking...

still indecisive between RD1 or rd2 Ko, or unanimous decision...

either way, I’m gonna go ham on TKZ ML. Anything below -200 is value for me. Hopefully we can get some Mexican money and casual money backing the dog.

I think -175 is about right, i predict that it will dip to as low as -150 on 5d/BAS...

cant wait
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zombie doesn't do decisions though, he's kill or be killed. 8 UFC fights, 8 finishes
 
loller90278 said:
zombie doesn't do decisions though, he's kill or be killed. 8 UFC fights, 8 finishes
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See, that mentality has to do with the line. This is a high stakes match for zombie because there are title implications. Dana didn’t say he had to do something spectacular, just win. I just suspect that TKZ isn’t going to be throwing big combos, he’s going to be more selective with his shots. If this fight happened originally when it was supposed to, I would be more confident in an early KO.
 
Zombie dosent wait. In the Moicano fight both were staring at eachother and doing nothing, so Zombie threw the first jab, knowing full well a lazy jab would come back. Slipped and countered it and the finish was soon after.
 
BigSteve said:
Zombie dosent wait. In the Moicano fight both were staring at eachother and doing nothing, so Zombie threw the first jab, knowing full well a lazy jab would come back. Slipped and countered it and the finish was soon after.
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Scary thing is zombie's eyes were fucked around this time too, he was seeing "doubles" levels bad. I think this is his first fight post-surgery where he's actually going to be able to see very well and could help with his accuracy. Not sure if it was gaethje-esque where he was blind to the point where he's sticking his hand out to touch his opponent before throwing bombs but regardless this should be a great positive for zombie, not that he really needs many of those. Ortega is pretty meh tbh and doesn't deserve to be in this top position spot.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
See, that mentality has to do with the line. This is a high stakes match for zombie because there are title implications. Dana didn’t say he had to do something spectacular, just win. I just suspect that TKZ isn’t going to be throwing big combos, he’s going to be more selective with his shots. If this fight happened originally when it was supposed to, I would be more confident in an early KO.
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Zombie has openly said he likes to be aggressive because he enjoys entertaining the fans. I think he’s always looking for the finish no matter what. I also think he’ll be looking to finish Ortega to get “revenge” for his boy Jay Park.
 
pineappletree said:
I actually never thought of living betting. Mostly cause I am not the biggest fan of live betting but that is a good idea. I originally was planning on making this extension work for all the bookies list on bestfightodds.com but that was too much work. I am down to make this work for other sites provided that have live betting. Does bookmakers have good live betting?

BTW can a mod give me permission to make a new thread for my extension? Thanks!
Click to expand...

I believe you need certain amount of posts to be able to create threads. Not sure.
Imo bet365, betonline, betstars are some of the best regular bookies for LB.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Zombie has openly said he likes to be aggressive because he enjoys entertaining the fans. I think he’s always looking for the finish no matter what. I also think he’ll be looking to finish Ortega to get “revenge” for his boy Jay Park.
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Aggressive /=/ going for the finish.

ya ik, sounds like I’m being a pseudo intellectual. I believe that TKZ will press forward as usual, the man rarely ever backpedals unless it’s to set up shots. Like I mentioned earlier, I still cap tkz KO at +100 to +105. It’s sitting at +150 on betonline right now but I heard something in an interview that might make me want to wait until fight day or just reduce my units completely. TKZ said he actually doesn’t mind fighting to a decision, and he said that he never goes for the finish; they come to him.

I like that mentality, TKZ has good finishing ability, simply because he has insanely heavy hands. Seems like he has rocks in his gloves, TKZ really knows how to box in MMA. Would be real interesting to see TKZ vs Calvin, calvins boxing is more crisp but I feel like TKZ would eat a shot and proceed to nuke him...

Im a little bias towards TKZ, but there is also some truth to him. I can’t be some beta male and discredit TKZ, he is one truly one of a kind.

Brian is poorly outmatched here, I wouldn’t be surprised if TKZ looks about as dominant as he did in that Frankie performance. I guess Brian has a better chin, but does he really have better boxing defense then Frankie? Simply put, the only way I see Brian winning is if he has been training takedowns and top game for the past two years.

Saturday cannot come soon enough.

only plays I’m making will be on main event of course, Chookagian via dec (placed 2 I’d already), and a potential play on JY PARK
 
I'm heavy on KZ's ML (already have 3u and might add 1u if line keeps improving), and also want to add 0.5u on his dec line, +440 isn't bad.
 
GOATisJBJ14 said:
Only two bets:
TKZ ML and Andrade ML.
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Aren't you concerned by the fact Andrade's best takedown is the high crotch and that she is going against an opponent who is 6 inches taller than her ?
I experience it all the time in practice, the high crotch is a very good takedown, but very hard to execute when your opponent is way smaller than you, or way taller than you (it's hard to get those feet off the floor, sometimes you are almost standing upright and the taller person's feet barely left the floor...)
 
Been watching tape on Cyril Gane and Ante Delija. Might make a small stab on Ante Delija at +400. Anyone got any leans on this. Delija is very aggressive and his ground and pound reminds me of Fedor. Obviously he wont be able to use soccer kicks this time around but getting a slight inkling he might pull an upset off
 
AK-47 said:
Been watching tape on Cyril Gane and Ante Delija. Might make a small stab on Ante Delija at +400. Anyone got any leans on this. Delija is very aggressive and his ground and pound reminds me of Fedor. Obviously he wont be able to use soccer kicks this time around but getting a slight inkling he might pull an upset off
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Im not saying Delija will win this but I dont buy into Gane's hype and I dont think the odds should be as juiced as they are. I havent taped Delija yet but at least his record looks legit enough to put a competitive fight against Gane.
 
Any german degenerates here? What bookmakers do you use? We don't even have a bookie here in germany that offers over-under bets for mma fights. Sucks lmao
 
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