UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie

[Vitor Apologist]

We saw how good frankies boxing was against Pedro Munhoz. It’s not like he lost his boxing abilities or never had it in the first place like Lawler or Woodley...

I just rewatched TKZ vs Frankie on YouTube and man... It’s hard to like Brian at those odds because to me he is essentially sub or bust here. I will be looking to go BIG on TKZ as long as I don’t feel any weird vibes.”

will be looking to hedge on Brian via sub if the odds are greater then +300. If it’s +200 - +250 I’ll most likely just go ham on TKZ ML and ITD/KO.

feel like we might get a fair line on TKZ via KO because of Brian’s granite chin and his “boxing” style.

honestly looking to drop 10U on TKZ via ko alone.

plays I have in thought so far are

5U JY Park + TKZ parlay (already placed, -245 and -175 and betanysports/5d)

2.5-10U TKZ KO. Most likely outcome of the fight, I personally would cap this at a +105 clip. But if bookies want to give it to me at +150 or my goodness, at the +200 level that’s where the 10U might come in.

House on TKZ ML, putting a lot on tkz but I’m confident in it. Only thing that would worry me is if I hear something weird in an interview or weigh ins are weird.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Zombie giving a little insight into his camp. He meantions he has been training with Johnny Case and Bobby Moffett at his gym in Korea, although Case recently suffered a concussion. Says he prefers to split his camp between Korea and the US but has been unable to due to travel restrictions. Rener Gracie is out of Oretga's corner due to a positive covid test as well.

Hasn't he been cured for 2 weeks already?
Thought he got ronaed more than 1 month ago...

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

After taping Chookagian and Andrade, I think I'm gonna stay out of this fight.
I think Chookagian has the edge on the feet but I don't trust her tdd.
May play something like FGTD, because I don't think Andrade is submitting her either (but odds might be shitty...) or Chook dec if it's over +180-200, but I think her dec line will barely be better than her ML line saddly...
Not a good week for betting, will put some u's on KZ for sure but I have to admit it's a blind bet since we don't know what Ortega has been doing for two years.
I just took a little stab at Silva ML at +160.
A read on Robertson/Botelho anyone?

 

[Sono07]

Hasn't he been cured for 2 weeks already?
Thought he got ronaed more than 1 month ago...

Gracie saying he has tested positive again. Probably won't matter though, apparently Zombie has been getting his grappling advice from Eric Albarracin via zoom.

 

[loller90278]

i know everyone gonna go hard on the gamrot hype and deservedly so but Kutateladze isn't a can.

Dude trains with khamzat and is on an 8 fight win streak that has some decent level competition sprinkled in.

He has decent power in his hands and some pretty neat kicks.

Don't like too many fights this weekend but I'll be looking at this fight to see if he's a live dog as well as andrade/chookagian (i think andrade has improved hands and can get some TD to cruise to a decision) and the main event if KZ comes down to -150 or so

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

After taping Chookagian and Andrade, I think I'm gonna stay out of this fight.
I think Chookagian has the edge on the feet but I don't trust her tdd.
May play something like FGTD, because I don't think Andrade is submitting her either (but odds might be shitty...) or Chook dec if it's over +180-200, but I think her dec line will barely be better than her ML line saddly...
Not a good week for betting, will put some u's on KZ for sure but I have to admit it's a blind bet since we don't know what Ortega has been doing for two years.
I just took a little stab at Silva ML at +160.
A read on Robertson/Botelho anyone?

EDIT: It's not a high guard, Robertson has a decent guard.
I think Robertson has enough to get it down off the clinch and maybe get a sub as Botelho is pretty bad on her back and doesn't have very good takedown defense, but Robertson doesn't set up her duck unders with strikes. Botelho has a good liver kick that could catch Robertson, but with Din Thomas in her corner I think Robertson will come with a solid gameplan and be prepared for that. Botelho has her chin a little high when striking and when moving back, but I don't think Robertson has the skillset to capitalize on that especially with the height and reach disadvantage. Botelho has some issues with the clinch especially on her left side with underhooks so I expect Robertson to easily control the fight there and eventually get a body lock trip or throw. Robertson by sub might be ok, but her ML seems steep even though I don't think there's a ton of value on Botelho. Normally I like some WMMA fights because they tend to go long and the over 2.5 is usually underpriced, but FDGTD is way too steep now. She might be parlay fodder as her only TKO loss is by punches to Maycee Barber which isn't something I see Botelho doing. It will probably play out like Robertson/Frota where Botelho is a worse striker and worse grappler than Frota with the same takedown defense issues.

As far as Chookagian/Andrade, I think the dec line and over 2.5 might be decent. There isn't much of a tko finish chance from Andrade due to the height/reach disadvantage mixed with active footwork and good cardio of Chookagian. I'm a bit concerned that Chookagian doesn't have the punching power of Namajunas so Andrade might walk through the strikes and get that clinch high crotch she likes so much. If that happens, then I could see Andrade grinding out a win as Chookagian sometimes plays on her back too much and can be held down by good grapplers. Anyone think Chookagian's getups are good enough to get back to her feet while avoiding power hooks in the pocket/phone booth?

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

I think Robertson has enough to get it down off the clinch and maybe get a sub as Botelho is pretty bad on her back and doesn't have very good takedown defense, but Robertson doesn't set up her duck unders with strikes. Botelho has a good liver kick that could catch Robertson due to her high guard, but with Din Thomas in her corner I think Robertson will come with a solid gameplan and be prepared for that. Botelho has her chin a little high when striking and when moving back, but I don't think Robertson has the skillset to capitalize on that especially with the height and reach disadvantage. Botelho has some issues with the clinch especially on her left side with underhooks so I expect Robertson to easily control the fight there and eventually get a body lock trip or throw. Robertson by sub might be ok, but her ML seems steep even though I don't think there's a ton of value on Botelho. Normally I like some WMMA fights because they tend to go long and the over 2.5 is usually underpriced, but FDGTD is way too steep now. She might be parlay fodder as her only TKO loss is by punches to Maycee Barber which isn't something I see Botelho doing. It will probably play out like Robertson/Frota where Botelho is a worse striker and worse grappler than Frota with the same takedown defense issues.

As far as Chookagian/Andrade, I think the dec line and over 2.5 might be decent. There isn't much of a tko finish chance from Andrade due to the height/reach disadvantage mixed with active footwork and good cardio of Chookagian. I'm a bit concerned that Chookagian doesn't have the punching power of Namajunas so Andrade might walk through the strikes and get that clinch high crotch she likes so much. If that happens, then I could see Andrade grinding out a win as Chookagian sometimes plays on her back too much and can be held down by good grapplers. Anyone think Chookagian's getups are good enough to get back to her feet while avoiding power hooks in the pocket/phone booth?

That's some quality breakdown, thank you for that bro.
The fgtd is worth a stab, at -185, there is a little value on that if you ask me.
As you said, Chook isn't koing Andrade for shit, and I don't see Andrade koing Chook on the feet either. The only thing Chook has to do is surviving on the ground, which I think she is capable of.
I like your read on Botelho/Robertson.
Will tape those two a bit more but I think I will pass on this one, or take a lil stab at a prop just for the sake of it.

Other topic, I just saw that Ortega/KZ FGTD is +205. Is everyone that sure KZ finishes Ortega here? Guy has a granite chin and is as tough as it gets, maybe there is value there.
Of course there is also the possibility Ortega subs KZ, but I clearly don't see how he takes him down so his only path to victory is some flying/highlight reel type of sub IMO, which isn't that likely to happen either.
Of course, it's a bit of a blind bet since Ortega hasn't fought for 2 years, since the disgusting beating Max put on him, maybe nor his chin nor his confidence are there anymore.

 

[Card]

Random notes:
- Ortega coming in with 1 year 10 months of ring rust
- Andrade moving up a weight class
- Almeida coming in with 2 years 9 months of ring rust
- Martinez has never been finished and is southpaw (Perez is Orthodox, Almeida hasn't fought a southpaw since 2014)
- Silva coming in with 1 year 2 months of ring rust
- Striegl coming in with 1 year 6 months of ring rust

Short notice:
- Jonathan Martinez in for Alejandro Perez vs. Thomas Almeida (0 days notice)
- James Krause in for Muslim Salikhov vs. Claudio Silva (1 week notice)
- Ante Delija in for Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Ciryl Gane (2 week notice)
- Mateusz Gamrot in for Renato Moicano vs. Magomed Mustafaev (2 week notice) Guram Kutateladze got (1 weeks notice)
- Mullarkey vs. Ziam - both got (2 weeks notice)

UFC Debuts:
- Ante Delija
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Guram Kutateladze
- Mark Striegl

 

[loller90278]

going to tape Antigulov/Grishin this week. At first glance, Grishin at -400 seems way too juiced for me.

Antigulov hasn't shown anything great in his past performances but going to see if he's capable of controlling grishin on the ground for 3 rounds. He has to be thinking it's his last shot in the UFC with a 3 fight losing streak.

Grishin also looked terrible vs tybura (albeit a weight class up and a short notice fight)

 

[Everygoodnametook]

wait what why is Claudio Silva an underdog to fucking James Krause lol

I know the dude never fights but this fight is gonna end up on the ground and Claudio is gonna submit him

what am i missing here Sherbros

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

wait what why is Claudio Silva an underdog to fucking James Krause lol

I know the dude never fights but this fight is gonna end up on the ground and Claudio is gonna submit him

what am i missing here Sherbros

I agree with you, I think it should be a pick'em.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

going to tape Antigulov/Grishin this week. At first glance, Grishin at -400 seems way too juiced for me.

Antigulov hasn't shown anything great in his past performances but going to see if he's capable of controlling grishin on the ground for 3 rounds. He has to be thinking it's his last shot in the UFC with a 3 fight losing streak.

Grishin also looked terrible vs tybura (albeit a weight class up and a short notice fight)

I just watched that fight and wasn't impressed with Grishin.
I clearly don't see what Antigulov has less than Johnson (same bodytype, same wrestling heavy style, sme sloppy striking) and Johnson was able to fight to a draw in their second fight.
I still think Grishin takes this but the line is way too juiced, there is value on Antigulov imo.
But I wouldn't advise anyone to go heavy on that, Antigulov still has a ton of holes, a bad gas tank, and terrible fight IQ (chilling in Craigs triangle when he could have easy got out of it, waiting for the sub, was Borella-level fight IQ...)

 

[pineappletree]

I wanted to post on a new thread but I don't have permissions to do so.

I wanted to share with you guys a Chrome Extension I made that I think would help a lot of us with betting. The extension calculates implied probability of all fights listed on bestfightodds.com after simply clicking on the extension icon. I know a lot of you would manually take odds and plug those odds into an implied probability calculator. This is a completely free app that is on the official Google Extension site.

Chrome store link: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/...babili/meondhbdocaammneephmgdgnjlndhnja?hl=en

here is the codebase if anyone is interested: https://github.com/ReverseSweep/bestfightoddsImpliedProbability

More info on how implied probability works: https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/...w-to-calculate-implied-probability-in-betting

 

[Danis_champ]

wait what why is Claudio Silva an underdog to fucking James Krause lol

I know the dude never fights but this fight is gonna end up on the ground and Claudio is gonna submit him

what am i missing here Sherbros

Yea must agree here. Claudio has taken down every opponent so far I know he fights like once per two years but these are the stats. He also took Leon Edwards down 3-times. It was pre Reebok I know but still proves that the guy is legit. Krause is BB himself but not on the level of Claudio Silva. The reason why Krause is the favorite here is that people are used to Krause coming in on short notice and beating everyone's ass. The fact is that he was in close fight with Giles and Claudio possesses whole different skill level. Odds are off for sure.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

I wanted to post on a new thread but I don't have permissions to do so.

I wanted to share with you guys a Chrome Extension I made that I think would help a lot of us with betting. The extension calculates implied probability of all fights listed on bestfightodds.com after simply clicking on the extension icon. I know a lot of you would manually take odds and plug those odds into an implied probability calculator. This is a completely free app that is on the official Google Extension site.

Chrome store link: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/...babili/meondhbdocaammneephmgdgnjlndhnja?hl=en

here is the codebase if anyone is interested: https://github.com/ReverseSweep/bestfightoddsImpliedProbability

More info on how implied probability works: https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/...w-to-calculate-implied-probability-in-betting

Great extension. Downloaded it. Works nicely. Thanks bud. Good work on that. Thank you so much for sharing it.

Would something like this be possible to create for bookmakers too? Its to me insane that so many pros have barely any clue about implied probablity. I think it needs to be learned.

One thing I can recommend is have a sheet with the numbers in front of you. Percentages - decimals - american odds is what I´ve done, possibly on your phone too, and a mug with it aswell. And then learn it so you know instantly what like -335 approx is in percentages. You dont need to know exactly what 1.43 or 1.45 is but just know what 1.40 and 1.45 approx is within a 5% range, and you´re good. It really helps out with livebetting. So you can easily say "what 30%? this should be 40% at least!" And do a quick bet.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Chookagian and Andrade via decision both at +175 on BOL...

I am a big Andrade fan and tbh I could see her exposing chookagians weak ground game. Valentina is not the most physically imposing chick but she pinned her down in a crucifix and ended her IIRC pretty quickly.

Andrade used to be a 135er and I remember her speed and power was pretty raw, I’m not too sure about her top game though. Chookagians BF is a legit wrestler and I’m sure she’s one of the few girls who can make those improvements in her game. Not like Andrade has a sick takedown game besides that high crotch lift.

Andrade via ko is at +400, but I’ll be taking chookagian at +175, could easily see this going down to the +125 area as this is chookagians only ptv lol

 

[Broe.]

I just watched that fight and wasn't impressed with Grishin.
I clearly don't see what Antigulov has less than Johnson (same bodytype, same wrestling heavy style, sme sloppy striking) and Johnson was able to fight to a draw in their second fight.
I still think Grishin takes this but the line is way too juiced, there is value on Antigulov imo.
But I wouldn't advise anyone to go heavy on that, Antigulov still has a ton of holes, a bad gas tank, and terrible fight IQ (chilling in Craigs triangle when he could have easy got out of it, waiting for the sub, was Borella-level fight IQ...)

Antigulov is 65 years old lol. No way is he 33. Just look up his first ever fight on youtube in 2003 he looks like 41 there lol. This guy has a 2 minute gastank, I feel like his first ufc wins were rather flukey, no way should you bet on him for anything less than +800

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Antigulov is 65 years old lol. No way is he 33. Just look up his first ever fight on youtube in 2003 he looks like 41 there lol. This guy has a 2 minute gastank, I feel like his first ufc wins were rather flukey, no way should you bet on him for anything less than +800

So what you advise is clearly to bet on Grishin.
If Antigulov should be +800 and he is +300, then there is value on his opponent.

I don't know why but I really have a feeling Antigulov, knowing how close he is to getting cut, will do everything he can to grind it out to a decision, and I still think he has the tools to do so.
I also feel like Grishin is good fade material.
+300 is worth 1u, nothing too crazy...

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Well, I’m a tad bid hesitant to go ham on TKZ via KO at +150 because it’s just about what I expected. Still though, value is value right?

In terms of the round, it’s going to be a tossup between round 1 or 2. I would not be shocked if TKZ wipes out Ortega within the first couple of flurries, but I think I will have to respect Ortega’s chin to last at least a round. And I expect Ortega to be conservative with all that ring rust, I also expect TKZ to not throw 3-4 punch combos off the bat. Will be a game time decision if I want round 1 or 2, I’m leaning towards 2 rn though.


Ortega by sub is at +375, but considering that he has to get a flying submission it’s about the right price. Don’t think TKZ will fall for a flying submission or enter his guard, he has great fight IQ.

I don’t think Brian Ortega has done enough since the Max fight, and this is arguably a tougher/ more dangerous fight IMO.

Brian’s horrible defense, combined with ring rust, and facing the most dangerous hands at FW = zombie KO. Is simple like that sometimes


Oh and not to mention that winner gets volk.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Great extension. Downloaded it. Works nicely. Thanks bud. Good work on that. Thank you so much for sharing it.

Would something like this be possible to create for bookmakers too? Its to me insane that so many pros have barely any clue about implied probablity. I think it needs to be learned.

One thing I can recommend is have a sheet with the numbers in front of you. Percentages - decimals - american odds is what I´ve done, possibly on your phone too, and a mug with it aswell. And then learn it so you know instantly what like -335 approx is in percentages. You dont need to know exactly what 1.43 or 1.45 is but just know what 1.40 and 1.45 approx is within a 5% range, and you´re good. It really helps out with livebetting. So you can easily say "what 30%? this should be 40% at least!" And do a quick bet.

Completely agree on that.
Also, I completely hate american odds. It's a total nightmare to feel what the implied probability is, especially for favorites.
If it's -x, then you have to calculate (x+100)/x to get to decimal odds, then you have to divide 100 by the decimal odds you just calculated to get a percentage. With decimal odds you can skip the first calculation, so if you are decent at mental arithmetic, you can approximately get the implied probability instantaneously, which isn't the case when you try to calculate the implied probability of let's say -343 within 2 seconds when you are live betting lol...