My 2 cents here, I learned from a genius, if you think there is a value on a line if they do X but you´re uncertain if they do X or if they come out as Y version, then it may be smart to pass.
LIke maybe you think X fighter can look like a -200, but you also think they could look like +500. You´re not sure, so you avoid betting the +150 simply because you dont know what version of the fighter you´ll get. You´re not sure if its a value bet.
While other times you may handicap another fighter as -200 but you´re much more confident that they´ll show up as the -200 version.
Maybe this doesn´t make sense, as yes value is what its about, the more +EV bets the better (as long as they are +EV), but sometimes we dont know what version of a fighter we´ll see.
I think Kevin Holland is a good example, the guy has potential, he´s skilled, but you´re not sure if he´ll be serious or just fk around and lose a sparring match.
But ofc at the core its all about making +EV bets without going broke.
